Ujkan Q. Bajra, Ardit Gjeçi and Simon Cadez
This study aims to thoroughly investigate the complexity of inflation dynamics in the context of two significant global crises, the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing geopolitical…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to thoroughly investigate the complexity of inflation dynamics in the context of two significant global crises, the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Ukraine. The primary goal is to examine the effects of several factors, such as interest rates, currency indices and unemployment, on inflation during extended periods of noneconomic crises.
Design/methodology/approach
This research uses a comprehensive data set spanning 75 months across the USA and the Euro Area, using the Generalized Method of Moments two-step regression methodology for analysis. The study examines the relationships between interest rates, currency indices, unemployment and inflation during extended noneconomic (financial) crises. This rigorous approach offers a nuanced understanding of how these factors interact and influence inflation.
Findings
The study highlights the crucial role of interest rates in controlling inflation during crises. Specifically, an interest rate increase of over 1.75% negatively impacts inflation, with more substantial rate hikes having a faster effect. The analysis reveals a minimal correlation between currency devaluation and inflation, emphasizing the predominant influence of interest rates. In addition, a notable negative correlation between unemployment and inflation is observed, indicating that higher unemployment rates tend to coincide with lower inflation levels.
Practical implications
The study’s findings offer valuable insights for central banks and policymakers tasked with managing inflation in times of crisis. By underscoring the effectiveness of interest rate adjustments and the limited influence of currency depreciation, this research provides critical guidance for formulating effective monetary policy during economic challenges.
Originality/value
This study contributes to existing literature by providing a comprehensive analysis of inflation dynamics during noneconomic crises, using a robust database and using advanced econometric techniques. The findings provide new insights into the role of interest rates, currency indices and unemployment in shaping inflation dynamics in times of noneconomic crises. These findings enhance the understanding of monetary policy strategies in challenging economic environments.
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The purpose of this paper is to examine empirically the evolution of corporate compliance with the eighth Company Law Directive (CLD) over time, the relationship between the…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine empirically the evolution of corporate compliance with the eighth Company Law Directive (CLD) over time, the relationship between the degree of compliance with the eighth CLD and corporate governance quality (CGQ), and the relative effect of compliance with the eighth CLD and Sarbanes–Oxley Act (SOX) on CGQ.
Design/methodology/approach
The hypotheses are tested on a sample of EU firms that are cross listed in the EU and the USA and, thus, subject to both EU and US legislation, using fixed effects panel regression analysis.
Findings
The authors find that compliance levels with the eighth CLD are increasing over time, yet they vary considerably across constituent provisions. The authors also find that higher compliance is positively related to CGQ, although the effect size is higher for compliance with the eighth CLD than for compliance with SOX.
Originality/value
This study is original from many perspectives. Unlike most prior studies, which rely on binary variables to represent the constructs appraised in this study, novel and advanced measures of compliance and CGQ are constructed. Next, this study examines EU firms that have received very little research interest compared to US firms. Third, in an innovative approach, the authors appraise the relationship between the degree of compliance and CGQ longitudinally at both the aggregate and the constituent provision levels.
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Florin Aliu, Ujkan Bajra and Naim Preniqi
This study aims to investigate the diversification benefits attached to the crypto portfolios when combined with stocks, Forex instruments and commodity assets.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to investigate the diversification benefits attached to the crypto portfolios when combined with stocks, Forex instruments and commodity assets.
Design/methodology/approach
Markowitz diversification techniques have been used to analyze the risk-return tradeoffs of the individual portfolios. Daily prices on cryptocurrencies and the selected asset classes, cover the period before and during the pandemic COVID-19. The portfolio risk of the portfolios was calculated by identical techniques and analyzed with equal criteria.
Findings
The results with 270 trails indicate that stocks on average reduce the portfolio risk of crypto portfolios by 36% followed by fiat currency with 30.9% and commodities by 20.8%. Average daily returns stand in line with the standard portfolio theories where riskier portfolios offer higher returns and the other way around.
Originality/value
The authors contribute to the current literature by investigating the portfolio risk attached to the crypto portfolios when stocks, commodities and Forex instruments were added separately. To this end, results inform not only retail investors but also portfolio managers on the asset classes that generate better optimization for crypto portfolios.
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Florin Aliu, Simona Hašková and Ujkan Q. Bajra
The stability of exchange rates facilitates international trade, diminishes portfolio risk, and ensures that economic policies are effective. The war in Ukraine is showing that…
Abstract
Purpose
The stability of exchange rates facilitates international trade, diminishes portfolio risk, and ensures that economic policies are effective. The war in Ukraine is showing that the European financial system is still fragile to external shocks. This paper examines the consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on five Euro exchange rates. The final goal is to empirically test whether the ruble caused the euro to depreciate with the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Design/methodology/approach
The exchange rates analyzed are Euro/Russian Ruble, Euro/US Dollar, Euro/Japanese Yen, Euro/British Pound, and Euro/Chinese Yuan. The data collected are daily and cover the period from November 1, 2021, to May 1, 2022. In this context, the changes in the FX rates reflect two months of the ongoing war in Ukraine. The FX rates used in the study contain 137 observations indicating five months of daily series.
Findings
The results from impulse response function, variance decomposition, SVAR, and VECM indicate that the EUR/RUB significantly influenced the Euro devaluation. On the other side, the FX rates used in our work altogether hold long-run cointegration. The situation is different in the short run, where only EUR/RUB, EUR/USD, and EUR/CNY possess significant relations with other parities.
Originality/value
The Ruble is not among hard currencies, but its position strengthened during this period due to the importance of Russian gas to the Eurozone. The results indicate that even weak currencies can be influential depending on the geopolitical and economic situation. To this end, diversification remains a valid concept not only in portfolio construction but also for the preservation of the national economy.