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Despite its popularity in practice, sales comparison is constantly criticized as subjective and even relegated to the least recommended method by some scholars. This paper aims to examine the validity of the above statement.

A number of statistical techniques have been proposed to improve the objectivity of the sales comparison approach. In contrast, property valuation can also be seen as an exercise of human problem solving with respect to market information. As a result, the approach of a controlled experiment is employed.

First, experienced appraisers tend to adopt an appraisal process that significantly differs from that specified in legal standards. Second, appraisers have developed a specific‐to‐general information inquiry path. Third, appraisers are likely to stop examining additional sales evidence early when the appraised subject is a typical product. Fourth, appraisers have a tendency to weigh the comparables that come to their attention earlier more heavily than those that come later. Finally, despite the different strategies of information absorption, value variations among appraisers are consistent between different residential properties. The evidence, taken together, strongly suggests that professional appraisers have developed some heuristics or short‐cuts in digesting information relevant to appraisal.

This study is one of the very few that examine appraisers' decision making in Taiwan.

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the forecasting performance of grey prediction models on educational attainment vis-à-vis that of exponential smoothing combined with multiple linear regression employed by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES).

An out-of-sample forecasting experiment was carried out to compare the forecasting performances on educational attainments among GM(1,1), GM(1,1) rolling, FGM(1,1) derived from the grey system theory and exponential smoothing prediction combined with multivariate regression. The predictive power of each model was measured based on MAD, MAPE, RMSE and simple F-test of equal variance.

The forecasting efficiency evaluated by MAD, MAPE, RMSE and simple F-test of equal variance revealed that the GM(1,1) rolling model displays promise for use in forecasting educational attainment.

Since the possible inadequacy of MAD, MAPE, RMSE and F-type test of equal variance was documented in the literature, further large-scale forecasting comparison studies may be done to test the prediction powers of grey prediction and its competing out-of-sample forecasts by other alternative measures of accuracy.

The findings of this study would be useful for NCES and professional forecasters who are expected to provide government authorities and education policy makers with accurate information for planning future policy directions and optimizing decision-making.

As a continuing effort to evaluate the forecasting efficiency of grey prediction models, the present study provided accumulated evidence for the predictive power of grey prediction on short-term forecasts of educational statistics.