Tony Chieh-Tse Hou, Phillip McKnight and Charlie Weir
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of earnings forecast revisions by equity analysts in predicting Canadian stock returns
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of earnings forecast revisions by equity analysts in predicting Canadian stock returns
Design/methodology/approach
The sample covers 420 Canadian firms over the period 1998-2009. It analyses investors’ reactions to 27,271 upward revisions and 32,005 downward revisions of analysts’ forecasts for Canadian quoted companies. To test whether analysts’ earnings forecast revisions affect stock return continuation, forecast revision portfolios similar to Jegadeesh and Titman (2001) are constructed. The paper analyses the returns gained from a trading strategy based on buying the strong upward revisions portfolio and short selling the strong downward revisions portfolio. It also separates the sample into upward and downward revisions.
Findings
The authors find that new information in the form of analyst forecast revisions is not impounded efficiently into stock prices. Significant returns persist for a trading strategy that buys stocks with recent upward revisions and short sells stocks with recent downward revisions. Good news is impounded into stock prices more slowly than bad news. Post-earnings forecast revisions drift is negatively related to analyst coverage. The effect is strongest for stocks with greatest number of upward revisions. The introduction of the better disclosure standards has made the Canadian stock market more efficient.
Originality/value
The paper adds to the limited evidence on the effect of analyst forecast revisions on the returns of Canadian stocks. It sheds light on the importance of analysts’ earnings forecast information and offers support for the investor conservatism and information diffusion hypotheses. It also shows how policy can improve market efficiency.
Details
Keywords
The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether mutual fund investors can make effective cash flow timing decisions and examine the sensitivity of these decisions to past fund…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether mutual fund investors can make effective cash flow timing decisions and examine the sensitivity of these decisions to past fund performance using cash flow data at the individual fund level.
Design/methodology/approach
This study examines performance persistence and investor timing ability of 200 domestic equity mutual funds in Taiwan between 1996 and 2009. In particular, a performance gap measuring the difference between dollar‐weighted average monthly returns and geometric average monthly returns is used to evaluate investors' timing ability.
Findings
The empirical results show that funds that have performed well (poorly) in the previous year tend to continue performing well (poorly) in the following year, and investors' timing performance is negatively related to fund performance. The results also show that investors' timing performance is significantly and negatively related to fund size, length of fund history, and momentum‐style of funds, but positively related to value‐style funds. These results suggest that mutual fund investors are loss‐averse and demonstrate return‐chasing behavior in well‐performing funds.
Originality/value
The paper contributes to the mutual fund performance literature by proposing an integrated framework that jointly tests fund performance and how it affects investors' cash flow timing decisions. Furthermore, the paper individually measures investors' timing sensitivity for the current best (worst) performance funds and consecutive two‐year best (worst) performance funds, and contributes to a growing body of research on the behavior of mutual fund investors.