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Article
Publication date: 30 September 2021

Timothy Webb, Zvi Schwartz, Zheng Xiang and Mehmet Altin

The pace of booking is a critical element in the accuracy of revenue management (RM) systems. Anecdotal evidence suggests that booking windows exhibit persistent shifts due to a…

871

Abstract

Purpose

The pace of booking is a critical element in the accuracy of revenue management (RM) systems. Anecdotal evidence suggests that booking windows exhibit persistent shifts due to a variety of macro and micro factors. The article outlines several causes and tests the impact of the shifts on forecasting accuracy.

Design/methodology/approach

A novel methodological approach is utilized to empirically shift hotel reservation windows into smaller increments. Forecasts are then estimated and tested on the incremental shifts with popular RM techniques characteristic of advance booking data. A random effects model assesses the impact of the shifts on forecast accuracy.

Findings

The results show that shifts in booking behavior can cause the accuracy of forecasting models to deteriorate. The findings stress the importance of considering these shifts in model estimation and evaluation.

Practical implications

The results demonstrate that changes in booking behavior can be detrimental to the accuracy of RM forecasting algorithms. It is recommended that revenue managers monitor booking window shifts when forecasting with advanced booking data.

Originality/value

This study is the first to systematically assess the impact of booking window shifts on forecasting accuracy. The demonstrated approach can be implemented in future research to assess model accuracy as booking behavior changes.

Details

Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Insights, vol. 5 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2514-9792

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Article
Publication date: 10 August 2023

Zvi Schwartz, Jing Ma and Timothy Webb

Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is the primary forecast evaluation metric in hospitality and tourism research; however its main shortcoming is that it is asymmetric. The…

141

Abstract

Purpose

Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is the primary forecast evaluation metric in hospitality and tourism research; however its main shortcoming is that it is asymmetric. The asymmetry occurs due to over or under forecasts that introduce bias into forecast evaluation. This study aims to explore the nature of asymmetry and designs a new measure, one that reduces the asymmetric properties while maintaining MAPE’s scale-free and intuitive interpretation characteristics.

Design/methodology/approach

The study proposes and tests a new forecasting accuracy measure for hospitality revenue management (RM). A computer simulation is used to assess and demonstrate the problem of asymmetry when forecasting with MAPE, and the new measures’ (MSapeMER, that is, Mean of Selectively applied Absolute Percentage Error or Magnitude of Error Relative to the estimate) ability to reduce it. The MSapeMER’s effectiveness is empirically validated by using a large set of hotel forecasts.

Findings

The study demonstrates the ability of the MSapeMER to reduce the asymmetry bias generated by MAPE. Furthermore, this study demonstrates that MSapeMER is more effective than previous attempts to correct for asymmetry bias. The results show via simulation and empirical investigation that the error metric is more stable and less swayed by the presence of over and under forecasts.

Research limitations/implications

It is recommended that hospitality RM researchers and professionals adopt MSapeMER when using MAPE to evaluate forecasting performance. The MSapeMER removes the potential bias that MAPE invites due to its calculation and presence of over and under forecasts. Therefore, forecasting evaluations may be less affected by the presence of over and under forecasts and their ability to bias forecasting results.

Practical implications

Hospitality RM should adopt this measure when MAPE is used, to reduce biased decisions driven by the “asymmetry of MAPE.”

Originality/value

The MAPE error metric exhibits an asymmetry problem, and this paper proposes a more effective solution to reduce biased results with two major methodological contributions. It is first to systematically study the characteristics of MAPE’s asymmetry, while proposing and testing a measure that considerably reduces the amount of asymmetry. This is a critical contribution because MAPE is the primary forecasting metric in hospitality and tourism studies. The second methodological contribution is a procedure developed to “quantify” the asymmetry. The approach is demonstrated and allows future research to compare asymmetric characteristics among various accuracy measures.

Details

International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, vol. 36 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0959-6119

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Article
Publication date: 21 October 2021

Timothy Webb, Srikanth Beldona, Zvi Schwartz and Simone Bianco

Coopetition is the simultaneous cooperation and competition among firms operating in a specific market. It is particularly relevant in tourism where many competing suppliers…

542

Abstract

Purpose

Coopetition is the simultaneous cooperation and competition among firms operating in a specific market. It is particularly relevant in tourism where many competing suppliers (hotels in this case) contribute to the facilitation and delivery of the tourism product, i.e. the destination. By engaging in cooperative arrangements, firms can increase the attractiveness and competitiveness of the tourism product and subsequently demand for individual firms. This study aims to explore the three types of benefits derived from cooperative relationships in the context of the hotel industry, as well as the link between coopetition and market performance.

Design/methodology/approach

This study adopts several scales from prior research to survey 475 hotels in the USA. Specifically, respondents were asked to evaluate their performance with regard to the three benefits of coopetition. The responses were used to model the benefits of coopetition as a higher-order construct in a two-stage partial least squares model. In the second stage, the higher-order construct was linked to perceived hotel performance and the respondents’ RevPAR index.

Findings

The results show that perceived benefits from coopetition are positively associated with hotel performance. Specifically, the model depicts positive links between the coopetition construct and the hotels’ perceived performance, as well as their RevPAR index. Interestingly, the results were not as strong for index performance and may be due to the relative nature of the measure.

Research limitations/implications

This study supports the notion that coopetition alliances between hotels provide a viable avenue for performance growth. Specifically, managers should consider working together to allocate resources strategically to grow the pie. It is important that managers measure the benefits of cooperative relationships outside of competitive index scores as these metrics may be relative to the cooperative arrangement.

Originality/value

The study is the first to investigate the three benefits of coopetition in the context of the hotel industry. Specifically, it is the first to establish a positive link between firm coopetition and perceived performance in the hotel industry at the firm level.

Details

International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, vol. 33 no. 12
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0959-6119

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Article
Publication date: 8 February 2016

Zvi Schwartz, Muzaffer Uysal, Timothy Webb and Mehmet Altin

This paper aims to improve the accuracy of hotel daily occupancy forecasts – an essential element in the revenue management cycle – by proposing and testing a novel approach. The…

3236

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to improve the accuracy of hotel daily occupancy forecasts – an essential element in the revenue management cycle – by proposing and testing a novel approach. The authors add the hotel competitive-set’s predicted occupancy as an input of the individual property forecast and, using a recursive approach, demonstrate that there is a potential for significant reduction in the forecasting error.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper outlines the theoretical justification and the mechanism for this new approach. It applies a simulation for exploring the potential to improve the accuracy of the hotel’s daily occupancy forecasts, as well as analysis of data from a field study of two hotel clusters’ daily forecasts to provide empirical support to the procedure’s viability.

Findings

The results provide strong support to the notion that the accuracy could be enhanced. Incorporating the competitive set prediction by using either a genetic algorithm or the simple linear regression model improves the accuracy of the forecast using either the absolute or the absolute percentage as the error measure.

Research limitations/implications

The proliferation of data sharing practices in the hotel industry reveals that the timely data sharing-aggregation-dissemination mechanism required for implementing this forecasting paradigm is feasible.

Originality/value

Given the crucial role of accurate forecasts in revenue management and recent changes in the hotels’ operating environment which made it harder to achieve or maintain high levels of accuracy, this study’s proposed novel approach has the potential to make a unique contribution in the realm of forecasting daily occupancies.

Details

International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, vol. 28 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0959-6119

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Article
Publication date: 24 October 2008

Donald Hawes

95

Abstract

Details

Reference Reviews, vol. 22 no. 8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0950-4125

Keywords

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Book part
Publication date: 27 October 2016

Alexandra L. Ferrentino, Meghan L. Maliga, Richard A. Bernardi and Susan M. Bosco

This research provides accounting-ethics authors and administrators with a benchmark for accounting-ethics research. While Bernardi and Bean (2010) considered publications in…

Abstract

This research provides accounting-ethics authors and administrators with a benchmark for accounting-ethics research. While Bernardi and Bean (2010) considered publications in business-ethics and accounting’s top-40 journals this study considers research in eight accounting-ethics and public-interest journals, as well as, 34 business-ethics journals. We analyzed the contents of our 42 journals for the 25-year period between 1991 through 2015. This research documents the continued growth (Bernardi & Bean, 2007) of accounting-ethics research in both accounting-ethics and business-ethics journals. We provide data on the top-10 ethics authors in each doctoral year group, the top-50 ethics authors over the most recent 10, 20, and 25 years, and a distribution among ethics scholars for these periods. For the 25-year timeframe, our data indicate that only 665 (274) of the 5,125 accounting PhDs/DBAs (13.0% and 5.4% respectively) in Canada and the United States had authored or co-authored one (more than one) ethics article.

Details

Research on Professional Responsibility and Ethics in Accounting
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78560-973-2

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Book part
Publication date: 29 May 2020

Femi Oladele and Timothy G. Oyewole

Abstract

Details

Social Media, Mobile and Cloud Technology Use in Accounting: Value-Analyses in Developing Economies
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83982-161-5

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Book part
Publication date: 20 January 2021

Vincent K. Chong, Michele K. C. Leong and David R. Woodliff

This paper uses a laboratory experiment to examine the effect of accountability pressure as a monitoring control tool to mitigate subordinates' propensity to create budgetary…

Abstract

This paper uses a laboratory experiment to examine the effect of accountability pressure as a monitoring control tool to mitigate subordinates' propensity to create budgetary slack. The results suggest that budgetary slack is (lowest) highest when accountability pressure is (present) absent under a private information situation. The results further reveal that accountability pressure is positively associated with subordinates' perceived levels of honesty, which in turn is negatively associated with budgetary slack creation. The findings of this paper have important theoretical and practical implications for budgetary control systems design.

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Book part
Publication date: 23 July 2015

Abstract

Details

Tourism Research Frontiers: Beyond the Boundaries of Knowledge
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78350-993-5

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Article
Publication date: 1 March 1990

Timothy C. Weiskel and Richard A. Gray

The ecological decline of ancient Near Eastern civilizations and the violent and explosive characteristics of post‐Columbian colonial ecologies might well remain comfortably…

266

Abstract

The ecological decline of ancient Near Eastern civilizations and the violent and explosive characteristics of post‐Columbian colonial ecologies might well remain comfortably remote from us in our twentieth century world were it not for the disturbing parallels that such case histories seem to evoke as we consider our contemporary global circumstance. Just as in ancient times and in the age of colonial expansion, it is in the “remote environments,” usually quite distant from the centers of power, that the crucial indicators of environmental catastrophe first become apparent within the system as a whole. These regions are frequently characterized by weak economies and highly vulnerable ecosystems in our time, just as they were in the past. Accordingly, the environmental circumstances in these regions constitute for the modern world a kind of monitoring device that can provide early warnings of ecological instabilities in the global ecosystem.

Details

Reference Services Review, vol. 18 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0090-7324

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