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This paper applied grey wave forecasting in a decomposition–ensemble forecasting method for modelling the complex and non-linear features in time series data. This application aims to test the advantages of grey wave forecasting method in predicting time series with periodic fluctuations.

The decomposition–ensemble method combines empirical mode decomposition (EMD), component reconstruction technology and grey wave forecasting. More specifically, EMD is used to decompose time series data into different intrinsic mode function (IMF) components in the first step. Permutation entropy and the average of each IMF are checked for component reconstruction. Then the grey wave forecasting model or ARMA is used to predict each IMF according to the characters of each IMF.

In the empirical analysis, the China container freight index (CCFI) is applied in checking prediction performance. Using two different time periods, the results show that the proposed method performs better than random walk and ARMA in multi-step-ahead prediction.

The decomposition–ensemble method based on EMD and grey wave forecasting model expands the application area of the grey system theory and graphic forecasting method. Grey wave forecasting performs better for data set with periodic fluctuations. Forecasting CCFI assists practitioners in the shipping industry in decision-making.

The purpose of this paper is to explore self-management among informal tourism employees in urban China with the theoretical basis of Jianghu and reveal the forming process and operation mechanism of China’s urban informal organizations’ self-management.

This paper adopts process–event analysis of informal tourism photographers surrounding Guangzhou Tower. Conducting field inspection and in-depth interviews, the forming process is analyzed and typical events are captured to unveil this self-management mechanism.

The self-management of informal tourism employees in China is based on the Jianghu theory, which specifies the role, obligation and responsibility of a member. These above rely on word-of-mouth order or implicit ways to treat newcomers, realize internal communication and deal with public affairs. Brotherhood, benevolence and etiquette make up the core values of the Jianghu theory that advises strategies in dealing with different events. This self-management, based on the Jianghu theory, has not only effectively solved internal conflicts, but has also achieved the goal of social management.

Informal employees’ self-management is extremely important due to the high cost of government intervention. Through China’s urban informal tourism employees’ Jianghu-styled self-management, the paper shows that the government should not crack down on this group indiscriminately. Instead, it should, through the management agent, set up effective Jianghu rules to realize regular control over this group.