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When performing system-level developmental testing, time and expenses generally warrant a small sample size for failure data. Upon failure discovery, redesigns and/or corrective actions can be implemented to improve system reliability. Current methods for estimating discrete (one-shot) reliability growth, namely the Crow (AMSAA) growth model, stipulate that parameter estimates have a great level of uncertainty when dealing with small sample sizes. The purpose of this paper is to present an application of a modified GM(1,1) model for handling system-level testing constrained by small sample sizes.

The paper presents a methodology for incorporating failure data into a modified GM(1,1) model for systems with failures following a poly-Weibull distribution. Notional failure data are generated for complex systems and characterization of reliability growth parameters is performed via both the traditional AMSAA model and the GM(1,1) model for purposes of comparing and assessing performance.

The modified GM(1,1) model requires less complex computational effort and provides a more accurate prediction of reliability growth model parameters for small sample sizes and multiple failure modes when compared to the AMSAA model. It is especially superior to the AMSAA model in later stages of testing.

This research identifies cost-effective methods for developing more accurate reliability growth parameter estimates than those currently used.

The purpose of this paper is to present a novel GREY‒ASMAA model for reliability growth evaluation in the large civil aircraft test flight phase.

As limited data are collected during the large civil aircraft test flight phase, which are not enough to meet the requirements of the ASMAA model for reliability growth, four basic GM(1, 1) models, even grey model, original difference grey model, even difference grey model and discrete grey model, are presented. Then both forward and backward grey models GM(1,1) are built to forecast and obtain virtual test data on left and right sides. Then the ASMAA model for reliability growth evaluation can be built based on original and virtual test data.

Aiming at the background of poor information data during the large civil aircraft test flight phase, first, a novel GREY‒ASMAA model, which was combined by the grey model GM(1,1) with the ASMAA model, has been put forward in this paper.

The GREY‒ASMAA model for reliability growth evaluation can be used to solve the problem of reliability growth evaluation with poor information data during the large civil aircraft test flight phase, and it has been used in reliability evaluation of C919 at the test flight stage.

This paper presents two new definitions of forward grey model GM(1,1) and backward grey model GM(1,1), as well as a novel GREY‒ASMAA model for reliability growth evaluation of large civil aircraft during test flight phase.