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Botswana imposed a 30% ad valorem tobacco tax in 2014 to reduce tobacco use. The purpose of the paper is to assess the effectiveness of the tax in curtailing tobacco consumption.

An autoregressive distributed lag and equilibrium correction (ARDL-EC) framework is applied on data for the period 1975–2020 to estimate a dynamic tobacco demand model. The estimated price elasticity is then used to quantify the effects of the tax on tobacco consumption.

A 10% rise in the tobacco price results in a 6.6% decrease in tobacco consumption, suggesting an inelastic response. A 10% rise in income yields a 12% increase in tobacco consumption, reflecting that the rapid economic growth Botswana experienced post-independence yielded increased tobacco use. Tobacco consumption declined by 3.6% per year, possibly capturing the effects of increasing awareness of the adverse effects of tobacco use over time. The 30% tobacco tax yielded a 20% reduction in tobacco consumption, suggesting moderate effectiveness in curtailing consumption. The tax reduced annual tobacco consumption by 100 grams per capita or 151 metric tons nationally.

Future research could explore the effects of non-price anti-tobacco measures and socioeconomic and demographic factors on tobacco use to provide further insights for guiding the development of targeted anti-smoking interventions.

Tobacco demand elasticities vary across countries and analytical methods. Therefore, country-specific empirical evidence is essential for policymaking. An existing study in Botswana employed cross-sectional analysis, which does not capture the addictive effects of tobacco. The ARDL-EC framework is employed to close this gap. Simulated effects of the tax are useful for policy reform in Botswana.

The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-01-2024-0097

To assess South Africa’s (SA’s) citrus export competitiveness in the global market and identify its macroeconomic drivers.

The Normalized Revealed Comparative Advantage (NRCA) index is employed to measure export competitiveness. An ARDL-EC model is then estimated to identify the macroeconomic determinants of SA’s citrus export competitiveness.

SA’s citrus export competitiveness declined before the mid-1990s and rose thereafter. On balance, the country improved from the fourth to the second most competitive citrus exporter. A long-run relationship was established between the NRCA scores and the real exchange rate and real GDP per capita growth rate. The export price exerted a positive short-run influence on citrus export competitiveness. The rise in SA’s citrus export competitiveness since the mid-1990s was mainly driven by the rising citrus export price and real exchange rate depreciation.

Future research could explore the determinants of SA’s export competitiveness using panel gravity models of bilateral trade flows to isolate the impact of macroeconomic variables and trade restricting/enhancing policies of importing countries.

The article employs the NRCA index, which can measure comparative advantage across space and over time. It is the first to econometrically estimate the macroeconomic determinants of citrus export competitiveness in SA. Application of the ARDL-EC framework yields both short- and long-run effects of macroeconomic variables on export competitiveness.