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Article
Publication date: 8 January 2018

Tong Tong, Tarlok Singh and Bin Li

China’s outward foreign direct investment (ODI) has become a recent phenomenon in that China is now rated as the world’s third largest country for ODI. Previous studies have found…

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Abstract

Purpose

China’s outward foreign direct investment (ODI) has become a recent phenomenon in that China is now rated as the world’s third largest country for ODI. Previous studies have found that China’s ODI is driven by the attractions of natural resources and overseas markets. Yet these studies have ignored the role of corporate governance at a national level, the paper aims to discuss these issues.

Design/methodology/approach

The Kaufmann et al. (1999) data set is used in our study and the data sample have covered the period from 2003 to 2012 for a comprehensive set of 171 host countries. Random effects model are applied in the paper and population average model is used to check the robustness of the results.

Findings

The authors find that the effects of macro-corporate governance are distinct in different sample periods, as well as in geographical and economic regions, when attracting China’s ODI. Indicators such as political stability, the absence of violence, regulatory effectiveness, regulatory quality, the rule of law and the control of corruption are found to be positively related to China’s ODI.

Originality/value

This is one of the first papers to investigate the relationship between macro-corporate governance indicators and China’s ODI. 171 countries are included in the data sample and sub-sample tests are also conducted.

Details

International Journal of Social Economics, vol. 45 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0306-8293

Keywords

Available. Open Access. Open Access
Article
Publication date: 3 October 2024

Xiaoyue Chen, Bin Li, Tarlok Singh and Andrew C. Worthington

Motivated by the significant role of uncertainty in affecting investment decisions and China's economic leadership in Asia, this paper investigates the predictive role of exposure…

351

Abstract

Purpose

Motivated by the significant role of uncertainty in affecting investment decisions and China's economic leadership in Asia, this paper investigates the predictive role of exposure to Chinese economic policy uncertainty at the individual stock level in large Asian markets.

Design/methodology/approach

We estimate the monthly uncertainty exposure (beta) for each stock and then employ the portfolio-level sorting analysis to investigate the relationship between the China’s uncertainty exposure and the future returns of major Asian markets over multiple trading horizons. The raw returns of the high-minus-low portfolios are then adjusted using conventional asset pricing models to investigate whether the relationship is explained by common risk factors. Finally, we check the robustness of the portfolio-level results through firm-level Fama and MacBeth (1973) regressions.

Findings

Applying portfolio-level sorting analysis, we reveal that exposure to Chinese uncertainty is negatively related to the future returns of large stocks over multiple trading horizons in Japan, Hong Kong and India. We discover this is unexplained by common risk factors, including market, size, value, profitability, investment and momentum, and is robust to the specification of stock-level Fama and MacBeth (1973) regressions.

Research limitations/implications

Our analysis demonstrates the spillover effects of Chinese economic policy uncertainty across the region, provides evidence of China's emerging economic leadership, and offers trading strategies for managing uncertainty risks.

Originality/value

The findings of the study significantly improve our understanding of stock return predictability in Asian markets. Unlike previous studies, our results challenge the leading role of the US by providing a new intra-regional return predictor, namely, China’s uncertainty exposure. These results also evidence the continuing integration of the Asian economy and financial markets. However, contrary findings for some Asian markets point toward certain market-specific features. Compared with market-level research, our analysis provides deeper insights into the performance of individual stocks and is of particular importance to investors and other market participants.

Details

China Accounting and Finance Review, vol. 26 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1029-807X

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Article
Publication date: 25 February 2022

Dezhong Xu, Bin Li and Tarlok Singh

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between gold–platinum price ratio (GP) and stock returns in international stock markets. The study addresses three…

262

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between gold–platinum price ratio (GP) and stock returns in international stock markets. The study addresses three empirical questions: (1) Does GP have robust predictive power in international stock markets? (2) Does GP outperform other macroeconomic variables in international stock markets? (3) What is the relationship between GP and stock market returns during economic recessions?

Design/methodology/approach

The study mainly uses OLS regressions to perform empirical tests for a comprehensive set of 17 advanced international stock markets and overall world market. The monthly data is used for the period January 1978 to July 2019, 499 observations for each market.

Findings

The study finds that the first-difference of GP (ΔGP), not the initial-level of GP, has strong predictive power for stock returns, both in short- and long-time horizons. The results remain robust after controlling for a number of macroeconomic predictors. The out-of-sample test results are significant, confirming the robustness of the predictive power of ΔGP.

Originality/value

This study is the first to examine the ability of the ΔGP to predict stock returns, and provide novel evidence on the relationship between ΔGP and international stock markets. The study draws on behavioral finance theory, specifically the myopic loss aversion, the herd effect and the limited attention theory, to explain the predictability of stock returns in international stock markets.

Details

International Journal of Managerial Finance, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1743-9132

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Article
Publication date: 25 July 2023

Tong Tong, Tarlok Singh, Bin Li and Lewis Liu

This paper aims to investigate the primary motivations for China’s outward foreign direct investment (ODI) decisions.

199

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the primary motivations for China’s outward foreign direct investment (ODI) decisions.

Design/methodology/approach

Using a panel data sample covering the period 2003–2012 and a comprehensive set of 176 host countries.

Findings

This study finds that market size, trade variables and natural resource variables are strongly related to the Chinese ODI stocks. This indicates that Chinese ODI decisions are driven by both market- and resource-seeking motives. The subperiod sample test results lend even stronger support to the market-seeking motive for ODI.

Originality/value

These results seem to emerge from the policy changes that were undertaken during the sample period. Consistent with subgroup tests, this study finds that the main purposes of China’s ODI in the top 100 countries are natural resource explorations and production line replacements.

Details

Pacific Accounting Review, vol. 35 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0114-0582

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Article
Publication date: 20 February 2020

Xiyang Li, Bin Li, Tarlok Singh and Kan Shi

This study aims to draw on a less explored predictor – the average correlation of pairwise returns on industry portfolios – to predict stock market returns (SMRs) in the USA.

574

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to draw on a less explored predictor – the average correlation of pairwise returns on industry portfolios – to predict stock market returns (SMRs) in the USA.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses the average correlation approach of Pollet and Wilson (2010) and predicts the SMRs in the USA. The model is estimated using monthly data for a long time horizon, from July 1963 to December 2018, for the portfolios comprising 48 Fama-French industries. The model is extended to examine the effects of a longer lag structure of one-month to four-month lags and to control for the effects of a number of variables – average variance (AV), cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE), term spread (TS), default spread (DS), risk-free rate returns (R_f) and lagged excess market returns (R_s).

Findings

The study finds that the two-month lagged average correlation of returns on individual industry portfolios, used individually and collectively with financial predictors and economic factors, predicts excess returns on the stock market in an effective manner.

Research limitations/implications

The methodology and results are of interest to academics as they could further explore the use of average correlation to improve the predictive powers of their models.

Practical implications

Market practitioners could include the average correlation in their asset pricing models to improve the predictions for the future trend in stock market returns. Investors could consider including average correlation in their forecasting models, along with the traditional financial ratios and economic indicators. They could adjust their expected returns to a lower level when the average correlation increases during a recession.

Social implications

The finding that recession periods have effects on the SMRs would be useful for the policymakers. The understanding of the co-movement of returns on industry portfolios during a recession would be useful for the formulation of policies aimed at ensuring the stability of the financial markets.

Originality/value

The study contributes to the literature on three counts. First, the study uses industry portfolio returns – as compared to individual stock returns used in Pollet and Wilson (2010) – in constructing average correlation. When stock market becomes more volatile on returns, the individual stocks are more diverse on their performance; the comovement between individual stock returns might be dominated by the idiosyncratic component, which may not have any implications for future SMRs. Using the industry portfolio returns can potentially reduce such an effect by a large extent, and thus, can provide more reliable estimates. Second, the effects of business cycles could be better identified in a long sample period and through several sub-sample tests. This study uses a data set, which spans the period from July 1963 to December 2018. This long sample period covers multiple phases of business cycles. The daily data are used to compute the monthly and equally-weighted average correlation of returns on 48 Fama-French industry portfolios. Third, previous studies have often ignored the use of investors’ sentiments in their prediction models, while investors’ irrational decisions could have an important impact on expected returns (Huang et al., 2015). This study extends the analysis and incorporates investors’ sentiments in the model.

Details

Accounting Research Journal, vol. 33 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1030-9616

Keywords

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