James DeLisle and Terry Grissom
Current economic conditions have identified a complication if not conflict in the application of valuation analysis assumptions with the free fall in asset prices observed since…
Abstract
Purpose
Current economic conditions have identified a complication if not conflict in the application of valuation analysis assumptions with the free fall in asset prices observed since 2007. Discrepancies in debt obligations (from prior periods) with underlying collateral value have been opined to be an unforeseen anomaly. This investigation aims to observe an alternative perspective using data from 1900 to the present.
Design/methodology/approach
This 110‐year period of observation shows that return (value) volatility is the characteristic norm of the market system. Showing volatility as a fundamental characteristic of economic and property performance supports conjecture by definition, observation and rationality that valuation analysis had to be successfully employed in prior down cycles and across divergent economic regimes. A systematic literature search was conducted to identify the application of specific value theory, premises and concepts with appropriate valuation techniques in given economic regimes. The variables derived from the literature and practices observed and designated as operating across time emphasizing recorded recessions are then tested for statistically significant associations using χ2 tests.
Findings
The findings show that traditional value techniques are successfully applied in stabilized and even accelerated growth periods, but weaken and even break down during down markets. Alternative approaches and techniques are emphasized and developed during these periods that address specific problems but are befitting more general issues. The alternative perspectives are then observed to operate, generating much debate for extended periods. They are then incorporated as orthodox or disappear as issues. This study identifies a statistical link between the economic and valuation concerns of the Great Depression of the 1930s and the current Great Recession of 2007‐2009. The more relevant finding, however, is that the period following the depression of the 1930s, which shows a period characterized as using innovation and alternative valuation techniques, was continued into a period that ran from the 1950s into the mid‐1990s. This was a period of stabilization, at least into the early 1980s. The deregulation of the 1980s generated a period of fewer cycles but major magnitude shifts in the less frequent measures of volatility. Unfortunately, the sophistication in debate concerning valuation procedure and valuation premises, as statistically measured, declined from the 1990s into the present period. The present economy reflects statistical measures similar to those observed from 1900‐1930.
Originality/value
Given the 110 years considered in the study, the findings should not be considered original with regard to assisting the general welfare or professional decision making. However, given that the market shifted from being a useful institution to assist in the allocation and distribution of property to being a religious caveat that could only result in perfect solutions to solve all social needs, wants and ills, the findings emphasizing valuation techniques based on rational value premises that can operate to assist inference of future events subject to divergent and cyclical operations might be calmed to offer very useful assistance with procedure based on fundamentals and expression of behaviour that has long been vilified. The uses of the patterns identified in this study need to be incorporated into causal analysis.
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T.V. Grissom, M. McCord, D. McIlhatton and M. Haran
The purpose of this paper, which is the first of a two-part series, is to build upon the established research on environmental economics and sustainability theory developed by…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper, which is the first of a two-part series, is to build upon the established research on environmental economics and sustainability theory developed by Ramsey (1928), Weitzman (2007) and Gollier (2010). The Ramsey-Weitzman-Gollier model, with the contribution of Howarth (2009) and Nordhaus (2007a, b), focuses on discount rate development for environmental and long-term assets, linking discounted utility analysis embedded in the CCAPM model of Lucas (1978) to the policy concerns associated with the valuation of public and sustainable resources. This paper further investigates these issues to the rates structure appropriate for exhaustible resources with a particular emphasis on urban land, based upon the differentiation of strong and weak form sustainability concepts constrained by the objectives of the sustainable criterion of Daly and Cobb (1994).
Design/methodology/approach
The paper integrates the concepts of discount rate development for environmental and long-term assets and discounted utility analysis to the policy concerns associated with the valuation of public and sustainable resources. It develops new theoretical insight in order to allow the theoretical formulation of discount and capitalization rates that can be empirically applied and tested.
Findings
The paper provides theoretical support for a new approach concerned with the development of capitalization and discount rates in the valuation of non-renewable resources. A key concern of valuing non-renewable or limited resource endowments (in space or time) is the problem of irreversible investment or irrevocable decision implementation as suggested by Arrow-Fisher (1974), Krautkraemer (1985) and Daly and Cobb (1994). It investigates the challenge with developing capitalization rates and valuation of depleting resources temporally, within the constraints of sustainability. To achieve this, an optimal control discounting procedure subject to a sustainable objective statement is employed – in this context it suggests that sustainability should be treated as an alternative to traditional growth and the maximization of near-term returns.
Originality/value
This paper extends the construct of developing rates structures appropriate for the valuation of exhaustible resources. It places a conceptual emphasis on urban land development. The measures developed and the insights gained may serve as a basis for future research on the optimal levels of sustainable development appropriate for different nations.
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T.V. Grissom, M. McCord, P. Davis and J. McCord
–This paper is the second of a two part series which offers new theoretical and empirical insights investigating the rates structures appropriate for exhaustible resources with a…
Abstract
Purpose
–This paper is the second of a two part series which offers new theoretical and empirical insights investigating the rates structures appropriate for exhaustible resources with a particular emphasis on urban land, based upon the differentiation of strong- and weak-form sustainability concepts constrained by the objectives of the sustainable criterion of Daly and Cobb (1994). The integration of the concepts and objectives allow the theoretical formulation of discount and capitalization rates that can be empirically tested. This empirical application employs data from 12 diverse national economies. The paper aims to discuss these issues.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper integrates the concepts of discount rate development for environmental and long-term assets and discounted utility analysis to the policy concerns associated with the valuation of public and sustainable resources. The new approach empirically shows the diverse issues of competing sustainable objectives across nations.
Findings
The potential and degree of strong-form or weak-form sustainability application in each nation enabled the identification as to whether alternative capital as defined by the modified Ramsey model used per nation, or the marginal rate of resource return as defined by strong form objective of a constant natural resource endowment, can identify which form of capital becomes the major constraint on the resource valuation and allocation decision appropriate within each nation. The findings showed constraints on nation resource endowments relative to population needs and the culture preferences endemic across nations.
Originality/value
The findings serve as a basis for future research on the optimal levels of sustainable development appropriate for different nations, the impactions of the timing and level of capital re-switching associated with the application of strong- or weak-form sustainability and the develop of rate and risk measures that can assist in the consideration of sustainable resource as a distinct asset class.
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Sayyed Mahdi Ziaei and Ghulam Ali Bhatti
By employing the GMM and SVAR models in this paper, the effects that bond prices, equity prices, gold prices, and domestic credit have on housing prices were analyzed, using data…
Abstract
By employing the GMM and SVAR models in this paper, the effects that bond prices, equity prices, gold prices, and domestic credit have on housing prices were analyzed, using data from 2002q4 to 2015q1 for the ASEAN + 2 countries. The GMM results indicated the significant effects of equity prices and gold prices on housing prices and insignificant effects of bond prices and demotic credit on housing prices in selected Asian countries. Furthermore, findings show that worldwide economic crisis has negative impacts on housing prices in Asian countries. Moreover, Impulse response results indicated that housing prices respond simultaneously and positively to equity prices in all countries except Malaysia and Singapore. Likewise, Variance deposition findings demonstrate the importance of gold prices in fluctuation of housing prices in Malaysia and China especially in the long term.
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This study reviews the teaching of real estate in the USA for the first 100 years after the foundational curriculum was laid down in 1923 by three key institutions: the National…
Abstract
Purpose
This study reviews the teaching of real estate in the USA for the first 100 years after the foundational curriculum was laid down in 1923 by three key institutions: the National Association of Real Estate Boards (NAREB), the Institute for Research in Land Economics and Public Utilities (The Institute) and the American Assembly of Collegiate Schools of Business (AACSB). Its line of investigative pursuit is the persistent lamentation by American real estate scholars that real estate is not getting the respect it deserves as an academic discipline compared to its peers in the school of business such as accounting, finance and marketing. The study addresses a fundamental question: What is the cause of this endless “search for a discipline”? This is motivated by the belief that identification of the root cause of this “search for a discipline” will lead to the requisite solution: the intellectual foundation of the real estate discipline.
Design/methodology/approach
The study used qualitative document analysis to review two primary documents published in 1959 as reports on business education in the USA: (1) Higher Education for Business, financed and sponsored by the Ford Foundation, and (2) The Education of American Businessmen – financed and sponsored by the Carnegie Corporation of New York. The impacts of the publications on the teaching of real estate to date have been reviewed in the context of scholarly actions and literature that has been generated in relation to the two documents.
Findings
The two primary documents impacted negatively on the teaching of real estate. The committee members who produced the two reports had indicated that real estate did not fit into the business curriculum hence should not be taught in business school. This conclusion led to unintended negative outcomes for real estate education. The negative impact of the reports arose principally because the teachers of real estate misinterpreted the outcome to mean that they should tweak the real estate curriculum to fit in the pedagogical framework of the business school. This reaction is responsible for perpetuating the identity crisis that has plagued real estate as an academic discipline since its inception as a subject of study in 1923. Secondly, at the inception of the real estate education in 1923, while the AACSB accepted real estate as a discipline in the school of business, Richard T. Ely wrote the curriculum under land economics which has led to the persistent collegiate dilemma regarding the teaching of the discipline.
Social implications
The study sheds light on the situation of business education in the USA and AACSB-accredited colleges internationally. It draws attention to the incoherent body of knowledge of business education and will help schools of business to redesign their curricula to include course contents that rightly reflects the business oriented academic disciplines.
Originality/value
The study is timely as it has been done 100 years since the development of the first standard collegiate real estate curriculum following the 1923 conference at Madison. The study has reviewed the first 100 years in terms of the persistent quest: “in search of a discipline”. In so doing, it has uncovered the root cause of this search during the first centennium; and to end the search, it proposes that real estate should not be taught as a business discipline.
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Examines the underlying basis of the valuation process at a timewhen the world property markets are experiencing the effects of theglobal recession. Refers to professional…
Abstract
Examines the underlying basis of the valuation process at a time when the world property markets are experiencing the effects of the global recession. Refers to professional criticism in the USA, the UK and Australasia. Advocates a return to first principles in all appraisals and valuations, the value being determined between the supply and demand criteria in any particular market.
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The significance of private equity as a form of financing and investing has led to growing interest in the real estate economy over the past few years. Anglo‐American investors in…
Abstract
The significance of private equity as a form of financing and investing has led to growing interest in the real estate economy over the past few years. Anglo‐American investors in particular are currently engaged in large‐scale real estate transactions and have now become the most important group of investors in the European hotel real estate market. However, for private equity funds, the high risk of investing in complex tourism and specialized real estate such as hotels is always coupled with an expectation of returns well above the market average. Yet actually achieving above market returns is not always accomplished. This paper therefore deals with the question of why some real estate private equity investors succeed in getting returns above the total market average even in the overall bear Western European market environment while others fail to do so. It shows that one formula for success includes deliberately exploiting market imperfections und overcoming inefficient information policies.
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The purpose of this paper is to examine the performance of asset classes in the South African investment market and assess the diversification benefits from adding listed property…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the performance of asset classes in the South African investment market and assess the diversification benefits from adding listed property stock into domestic mixed‐asset portfolios.
Design/methodology/approach
The data sets comprise of quarterly returns on property listed stock, all share, all bond and 90 day Treasury bill for the period of January, 1999 to December, 2009. Return‐risk performance of all the assets were compared using mean return, standard deviation, mean standard deviation ratio, coefficient of variation and correlation coefficient. To determine return enhancement and risk reduction benefits of property listed stock in mixed‐asset portfolios, 22 naïve portfolios (17 with property stock and five without) were constructed and, their return and risk levels, obtained using Markowitz's mean variance analysis, were compared.
Findings
The results showed that there was evidence of superior return and risk‐adjusted performance of real estate stock over other assets. Also, adding property stock into mixed‐asset portfolios was found to have produced enhanced and statistically significant risk‐adjusted returns but minimal and insignificant risk reduction benefits. These results however are conditional on the percentage allocation to real estate and the asset class replaced.
Research limitations/implications
The study has implication for investors. They could consider the inclusion of listed property stock in their portfolios with the expectation of a significant risk‐adjusted return enhancement but marginal risk reduction.
Originality/value
The paper is one of the few attempts at assessing the diversification benefits of listed property stock, especially from the perspective of African emerging market.
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Patrick J. Wilson and John Okunev
The risk/return trade‐off is a perennial problem of portfolio managers. Portfolio diversification strategies should be such that investments are held in markets that are…
Abstract
The risk/return trade‐off is a perennial problem of portfolio managers. Portfolio diversification strategies should be such that investments are held in markets that are well‐insulated from each other so that the effects of market fluctuations in one market are not transferred to the other. Conventional wisdom suggests that a well‐diversified portfolio should contain assets spread across different markets, such as holdings of equities, bonds and property, while an increasingly accepted notion is that portfolios should also be diversified internationally. Research over the last few years has, if not questioned this conventional wisdom, at least sought confirmation. The current paper continues this inquiry. Looks, in particular, at the twin issues of whether property should form part of a well‐diversified domestic portfolio, and whether property should form part of a portfolio that is diversified internationally. Using the relatively new technique of cointegration analysis, provides evidence from the USA, the UK and Australia that domestic real estate and equity markets are segmented, and also provides evidence that securitized property markets are segmented internationally ‐ implying that there are risk‐reduction benefits to be gained through diversification in both instances.
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James DeLisle, Terry Grissom and Lovisa Högberg
The purpose of this paper is to explore the notion of sustainability and research reporting price premiums for LEED‐certified buildings.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to explore the notion of sustainability and research reporting price premiums for LEED‐certified buildings.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper explores the notion of sustainability and research reporting price premiums for LEED‐certified buildings. The durability of certification levels is explored by converting projects developed under the initial NC2‐series system to a new vintage rating adopted in 2009. This conversion is made by applying Lagrangian multipliers to model stochastic impacts.
Findings
The study reveals that 18 percent of 591 projects developed under the NC2‐Series were “misclassified” in terms of certification levels when converted to new NCv2009 standards. To the extent the market has pursued LEED certification levels, the unanticipated changes may have led to the adoption short‐term solutions that are inappropriate due to the long‐term nature of real estate assets.
Research limitations/implications
Given the complexity of the LEED rating system, it is unknown how the market will react to the lack of durability and approach pricing over the long‐term.
Practical implications
The results indicate market participants should adopt a proactive approach to LEED certification.
Originality/value
The study identifies significant dynamics in the LEED certification system for new construction and behavioural responses that have not been reported in the literature.