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Publication date: 6 November 2017

Lungile Ntsalaze and Sylvanus Ikhide

The purpose of this paper is to assess the existence of critical tipping points for explanatory variables (age, government grants, education and household size) – in particular…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to assess the existence of critical tipping points for explanatory variables (age, government grants, education and household size) – in particular, household debt service-to-income on multidimensional poverty.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper applies a generalized additive model (GAM) using regression splines on National Income Dynamics Study data to establish threshold effects of the explanatory variables on multidimensional poverty.

Findings

The results show that the tipping point at which debt is associated with improved household welfare is 42.5 percent (level of debt service-to-income). With significant findings, household heads younger than 60 years of age and more children are associated with lower multidimensional poverty. Government grants may suffer from fungibility as they do not seem to be an effective tool for multidimensional poverty eradication. The ideal household size with negative significant correlation to multidimensional poverty is less than four members. And lastly, education proves to be the best instrument for households to escape multidimensional poverty.

Social implications

High household indebtedness is a severe social problem. Its effects include deteriorating physical and mental health, relationship difficulties and breakdown. Significant social costs arise such as medical treatment and indirectly, reduction of productivity. Further effects on society include rising criminal behavior, children dropping out of school thereby transferring poverty to succeeding generations. Non-performing loans increase and in turn lead to reduced credit availability. The overall health of the economy is impacted due to reduced aggregate demand.

Originality/value

Macro studies have demonstrated the presence of thresholds on debt analyses. However, such is not known in micro analyses, this paper attempts to bridge this knowledge gap by applying GAM for analysis of debt-poverty nexus at the micro level.

Details

International Journal of Social Economics, vol. 44 no. 11
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0306-8293

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Article
Publication date: 14 May 2018

Foluso Abioye Akinsola and Sylvanus Ikhide

This paper aims to examine the relationship between commercial bank lending and business cycle in South Africa. This paper attempts to know whether commercial bank lending in…

412

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the relationship between commercial bank lending and business cycle in South Africa. This paper attempts to know whether commercial bank lending in South Africa is procyclical.

Design/methodology/approach

The model assumed that the lending behaviour is related to the business cycle. In this study, vector error correction model (VECM) is used to capture the relationship between bank lending and business cycle to accurately elicit the macroeconomic long-run relationship between business cycle and bank lending, as some banks might slow down bank lending due to some idiosyncratic factors that are not related to the downturn in the economy. This paper uses data from South African Reserve Bank for the period of 1990-2015 using VECM to understand the extent to which business cycle fluctuation can affect credit crunch in the financial system. The Johansen cointegration approach is used to ascertain whether there is indeed a long-run co-movement between credit growth and business cycle.

Findings

Results from the VECM show that there are significant linkages among the variables, especially between credit to gross domestic product (GDP) and business cycle. The influence of business cycle is seen vividly after a period of four to five years, where business cycle explains 20 per cent of the variation in the credit to GDP. South African banks tend to change their lending behaviour during upturns and downturns. This result further confirms the assertion in theory that credit follows business cycle and can amplify credit crunch. The result shows that in the long run, fluctuations in the business cycle can influence the credit growth in South Africa.

Research limitations/implications

The impulse analysis result shows that the impact of business cycle shock is very persistent and lasting. This also demonstrates that the shocks to the business cycle result have a persistent and long-lasting impact on credit. This study finds that commercial bank lending in South Africa is procyclical. It is suggested that the South African economy needs forward-looking policies that will mitigate the flow of credit to the real sector and at the same time ensure financial stability.

Originality/value

Most research papers rarely distinguish between the demand side and supply side of credit procyclicality. This report is presented to develop an econometric model that will examine demand side procyclicality. This study adopts more realistic and novel methods that will help in explaining the relationship between bank lending and business cycle in South Africa, especially after the global financial crisis. This report is presented with a concise and detailed analysis and interpretation.

Details

Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, vol. 26 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1358-1988

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