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Article
Publication date: 4 May 2020

A. Ford Ramsey, Sujit K. Ghosh and Barry K. Goodwin

Revenue insurance is the most popular form of insurance available in the US federal crop insurance program. The majority of crop revenue policies are sold with a harvest price…

179

Abstract

Purpose

Revenue insurance is the most popular form of insurance available in the US federal crop insurance program. The majority of crop revenue policies are sold with a harvest price replacement feature that pays out on lost crop yields at the maximum of a realized or projected harvest price. The authors introduce a novel actuarial and statistical approach to rate revenue insurance policies with exotic price coverage: the payout depends on an order statistic or average of prices. The authors examine the price implications of different dependence models and demonstrate the feasibility of policies of this type.

Design/methodology/approach

Hierarchical Archimedean copulas and vine copulas are used to model dependence between prices and yields and serial dependence of prices. The authors construct several synthetic exotic price coverage insurance policies and evaluate the impact of copula models on policies covering different types of risk.

Findings

The authors’ findings show that the price of exotic price coverage policies is sensitive to the choice of dependence model. Serial dependence varies across the growing season. It is possible to accurately price exotic coverage policies and we suggest these add-ons as a possible avenue for developing private crop insurance markets.

Originality/value

The authors apply hierarchical Archimedean copulas and vine copulas that allow for flexibility in the modeling of multivariate dependence. Unlike previous research, which has primarily considered dependence across space, the form of exotic price coverage requires modeling serial dependence in relative prices. Results are important for this segment of the agricultural insurance market: one of the main areas that insurers can develop private products around the federal program.

Details

Agricultural Finance Review, vol. 80 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0002-1466

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Article
Publication date: 17 August 2018

Narinder Pal Singh and Sugandha Sharma

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamic relationship among Gold, Crude oil, Indian Rupee-US Dollar and Stock market-Sensex (gold, oil, dollar and stock market…

544

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamic relationship among Gold, Crude oil, Indian Rupee-US Dollar and Stock market-Sensex (gold, oil, dollar and stock market (GODS)) in the pre-crisis, the crisis and the post-crisis periods in the Indian context.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use Johansen’s cointegration technique, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Vector Auto Regression, VEC Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Test, and Granger Causality and Toda Yamamoto modified Granger causality to study long-run relationship and causality.

Findings

Johansen’s cointegration test results indicate that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables in the pre-crisis and the crisis periods but not in post-crisis period. VECM results report that none of four models of the variables show long-run causality in the pre-crisis period. During the crisis period, both crude oil and Sensex models show long-run causality. However, in some cases, results indicate short-run causality. The authors find one-way causality from USD and Sensex to crude oil, and from gold and Sensex to USD. Thus, the authors conclude that the relationship among GODS is dynamic across global financial crisis.

Practical implications

The research findings of this study are vital to the large group of stakeholders and participants of gold, crude oil, US dollar and stock market in emerging economies like India. The results are useful to importers, exporters, government, policy makers, corporate houses, retail investors, portfolio managers, commodity traders, treasury and fund managers, other commercial traders, etc.

Originality/value

This study is one of its kinds as it investigates the relationship among GODS in India in different sub-periods like before, during and after the global financial crisis of 2008. None of the studies compare phase-wise relationship among GODS in the Indian context. The study contributes to the economic theory and the body of knowledge. It highlights the need to revisit the economic theory to explain the interplay mechanism among GODS.

Details

Journal of Advances in Management Research, vol. 15 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0972-7981

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Article
Publication date: 24 May 2011

Satadal Ghosh and Sujit K. Majumdar

The purpose of this paper is to provide the maintenance personnel with a methodology for modeling and estimating the reliability of critical machine systems using the historical…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to provide the maintenance personnel with a methodology for modeling and estimating the reliability of critical machine systems using the historical data of their inter‐failure times.

Design/methodology/approach

The failure patterns of five different machine systems were modeled with NHPP‐log linear process and HPP belonging to stochastic point process for predicting their reliability in future time frames. Besides the classical approach, Bayesian approach was also used involving Jeffreys's invariant non‐informative independent priors to derive the posterior densities of the model parameters of NHPP‐LLP and HPP with a view to estimating the reliability of the machine systems in future time intervals.

Findings

For at least three machine systems, Bayesian approach gave lower reliability estimates and a larger number of (expected) failures than those obtained by the classical approach. Again, Bayesian estimates of the probability that “ROCOF (rate of occurrence of failures) would exceed its upper threshold limit” in future time frames were uniformly higher for these machine systems than those obtained with the classical approach.

Practical implications

This study indicated that, the Bayesian approach would give more realistic estimates of reliability (in future time frames) of the machine systems, which had dependent inter‐failure times. Such information would be helpful to the maintenance team for deciding on appropriate maintenance strategy.

Originality/value

With the help of Bayesian approach, the posterior densities of the model parameters were found analytically by considering Jeffreys's invariant non‐informative independent prior. The case study would serve to motivate the maintenance teams to model the failure patterns of the repairable systems making use of the historical data on inter‐failure times and estimating their reliability in future time frames.

Details

International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management, vol. 28 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0265-671X

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Book part
Publication date: 30 January 2023

Raktim Ghosh and Bhaskar Bagchi

Abstract

Details

Economic Policy Uncertainty and the Indian Economy
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80455-937-6

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Article
Publication date: 11 June 2018

Sujit Kumar De and Shib Sankar Sana

The purpose of this paper is to deal with profit maximization problem of two-layer supply chain (SC) under fuzzy stochastic demand having finite mean and unknown variance. Buyback…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to deal with profit maximization problem of two-layer supply chain (SC) under fuzzy stochastic demand having finite mean and unknown variance. Buyback policy is employed from the retailer to supplier. The profit of the supplier solely depends on the order size of the retailers. However, the loss of shortage items is related to loss of profit and goodwill dependent. The authors develop the profit function separately for both the retailer and supplier, first, for a decentralized system and, second, joining them, the authors get a centralized system (CS) of decision making, in which one is giving more profit to both of them. The problem is solved analytically first, then the authors fuzzify the model and solve by fuzzy Hausdorff distance method.

Design/methodology/approach

The analytical models are formed for both centralized and decentralized systems under non-cooperative and cooperative environment with suitable constraints. A significant assumption on density function, namely Cauchy-type density function, is introduced for demand rate because of its wider range of the retailers’ satisfactions. Fuzzy Hausdorff metric is incorporated within the fuzzy components of the fuzzy sets itself. Using this method, the authors find out closure values of both centralized and decentralized policies, which is an essential part of any cooperative and non-cooperative two-layer SC models. Moreover, the authors take care of the profit values with corresponding ambiguities for both the systems explicitly.

Findings

It is found that the centralize policy of SC could only be able to maximize the profit of both the retailers and suppliers. All analytical results are illustrated numerically along with sensitivity analysis and side by side comparative studies between Hausdorff and Euclidean distance measure are done exclusively.

Research limitations/implications

The main focus of attention of the proposed model is given to usefulness of Hausdorff distance. Unlike other distances, Hausdorff distance can take special care on the similarity measures of different fuzzy sets. Researchers have been engaged to use Hausdorff distance on the different fuzzy sets but, in this study, the authors have used it within the components of a same fuzzy set to gain more closure values than other methods.

Originality/value

The use of this Hausdorff distance approach is totally new as per literature survey suggested yet. However, the Cauchy-type density function has not been introduced anywhere in SC management problems by modern researchers still now. In crisp model, the sensitivity on goodwill measures really provides a special attention also.

Details

International Journal of Intelligent Computing and Cybernetics, vol. 11 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-378X

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Book part
Publication date: 30 January 2023

Raktim Ghosh and Bhaskar Bagchi

Abstract

Details

Economic Policy Uncertainty and the Indian Economy
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80455-937-6

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Case study
Publication date: 7 February 2025

Sujit Sukumaran Koyilathumpaday and Nandini M.

The case was an application of a market demand and supply mechanism and its impact on the product’s price and focus on the following objectives:▪ Analyze the vegetable market in…

Abstract

Learning outcomes

The case was an application of a market demand and supply mechanism and its impact on the product’s price and focus on the following objectives:▪ Analyze the vegetable market in India and the challenges faced by the farmers (tomatoes) using demand and supply concepts.▪ Examine the impact of price elasticity on the revenue of the farmers.▪ Assess the challenges faced by the government in controlling prices of vegetables and food inflation.▪ Evaluate diversification strategies in agriculture to mitigate risk.

Case overview/synopsis

The market for tomatoes was highly cyclical because of erratic rainfall, and farmers went through a difficult time, especially when the prices fell below the cost of production. They moved out for crops that had stable prices. They expected government support for price stability. Government and policymakers considered price fluctuations a short-term phenomenon that required limited interventions when prices were high. This case was about Dilip, a farmer who was into farming tomatoes on a large scale in Karnataka, India. He was facing a dilemma as to whether he had to continue or move to other crops because of the low price of tomatoes in May 2023 or to diversify into some small but related business. He was worried at the same time, curious to understand the volatility in the prices of tomatoes, government responses, risks and returns associated with the cultivation of this crop and Agri-supply chain. Based on his understanding, he should make decisions to continue or diversify into some other farming or related business.

Complexity academic level

This case was written for microeconomics and managerial economics of undergraduate and postgraduate students. This case demonstrates the application of the demand and supply mechanism for a perishable product such as tomatoes. Price fluctuations are common in these markets because of various uncontrollable factors such as rain, pests and natural calamities. The case could show the relationship between the firm’s elasticities and revenue. This case also highlights the policy constraints in controlling the prices in the short run. This case could also be used for understanding macroeconomic concepts such as food inflation and its impact on general price inflation. The students or target audience with a background in the functioning of the markets could very well relate to the concepts discussed.

Supplementary material

Teaching notes are available for educators only.

Subject Code

CSS: Entrepreneurship (3); Management Science (7).

Details

Emerald Emerging Markets Case Studies, vol. 15 no. 1
Type: Case Study
ISSN: 2045-0621

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Article
Publication date: 14 July 2022

Chanchal Chatterjee and Sweta Tiwari

This paper aims to analyze the stock price reaction because of dividend reduction (DR) announcements in the Indian equity market, controlling for share repurchases.

550

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to analyze the stock price reaction because of dividend reduction (DR) announcements in the Indian equity market, controlling for share repurchases.

Design/methodology/approach

The sample comprises National Stock Exchange (NSE) 500 companies listed in the NSE Ltd. covering a time span from year 2009 to 2019. Using the event study methodology, the authors measure the impact of DR announcements on security prices around the event day. The authors also examine the price response to DRs at the interim stage versus the final stage and identify the factors that drive the decision to reduce dividends at the interim level versus final level.

Findings

The authors find that overall DR announcements negatively impact abnormal returns. Firms that experience stronger adverse price reaction following DR announcements resort to share repurchase in the same year to boost stock prices. The authors find that interim DRs create more negative price reactions than final DRs. Finally, firms experiencing lower levels of prior year earnings, firms with smaller sizes and overvalued firms tend to reduce dividends at the interim level instead of postponing the reduction to the final level.

Originality/value

This paper examines stock price reaction because of DR announcements of Indian firms. The sample comprises firms that reduce dividends with contemporaneous share repurchases as well as firms that reduce dividends without contemporaneous repurchase activity. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, studies on substitution effect of dividends with buyback in the context of Indian equity market are rare. Further, investigating the difference in stock price movement because of DRs at the interim level versus the final level is the unique contribution of this paper.

Details

Journal of Indian Business Research, vol. 14 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1755-4195

Keywords

Available. Open Access. Open Access
Article
Publication date: 2 November 2021

Showmitra Kumar Sarkar, Swapan Talukdar, Atiqur Rahman, Shahfahad and Sujit Kumar Roy

The present study aims to construct ensemble machine learning (EML) algorithms for groundwater potentiality mapping (GPM) in the Teesta River basin of Bangladesh, including random…

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Abstract

Purpose

The present study aims to construct ensemble machine learning (EML) algorithms for groundwater potentiality mapping (GPM) in the Teesta River basin of Bangladesh, including random forest (RF) and random subspace (RSS).

Design/methodology/approach

The RF and RSS models have been implemented for integrating 14 selected groundwater condition parametres with groundwater inventories for generating GPMs. The GPM were then validated using the empirical and bionormal receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve.

Findings

The very high (831–1200 km2) and high groundwater potential areas (521–680 km2) were predicted using EML algorithms. The RSS (AUC-0.892) model outperformed RF model based on ROC's area under curve (AUC).

Originality/value

Two new EML models have been constructed for GPM. These findings will aid in proposing sustainable water resource management plans.

Details

Frontiers in Engineering and Built Environment, vol. 2 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2634-2499

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 23 October 2019

Rakesh Kumar Sharma and Apurva Bakshi

This paper aims to make an attempt to identify the determinants of dividend policy by analyzing 125 real estate companies, which are selected on the basis of consistent dividend…

786

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to make an attempt to identify the determinants of dividend policy by analyzing 125 real estate companies, which are selected on the basis of consistent dividend distribution throughout the study period. Most of these companies either listed with Bombay Stock Exchange or National Stock Exchange.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper applies three alternative methods to verify and validate the results obtained from each other method, namely, fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS), dynamic ordinary least square and generalized method of moments (GMM). Data collected of the selected companies’ post-recession period i.e. 2009-2017. The selected companies have age either 5 years old or more when data are retrieved from the above-mentioned sources. Due to much volatility in the recession period in the real estate firms at the global level, no data have been taken of the firms before March 2009. Moreover, for arriving at good analysis and an adequate number of observations for the study more recent data have been taken.

Findings

Empirical findings of this research paper depict that firm previous dividend, firm risk and liquidity are strong predictors of future dividend payout ratios (DPRs). The results indicate that firm risk as measured through price-earnings ratio (PE ratio) has a positive association with a DPR of selected real estate firms. Lagged DPR used in the GMM test as an exogenous variable is showing positive significant association with DPR. Firm’s growth is found significant in FMOLS and GMM techniques. On the other firm’s size is found significant according to cointegration techniques.

Practical implications

The present study shall be useful to different stakeholders of real estate companies. Various significant determinants as identified can be used by management for designing optimum dividend policy and providing maximum benefits to existing shareholders. Similarly existing and prospective shareholders may predict the future payment of dividend and accordingly they may take investment decisions in these firms, as the future fund’s requirement of a firm depends upon dividend payment and retention ratio.

Originality/value

As per the authors’ knowledge, there is no single study carried in the post-recession period to predict determinants of dividend policy of real estate sector using three alternatives of methods to verify and validate the results obtained from each other method. The study is carried out after exploring determinant from a diverse range of period of studies (oldest one to latest one).

Details

Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction , vol. 24 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1366-4387

Keywords

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