Christine A. Witt and Stephen F. Witt
The importance of accurate forecasts of tourism demand for managerial decision making is widely recognized (see, for example, Archer 1987), and this study examines the literature…
Abstract
The importance of accurate forecasts of tourism demand for managerial decision making is widely recognized (see, for example, Archer 1987), and this study examines the literature on the accuracy of tourism forecasts generated by different forecasting techniques. In fact, although there are many possible forecasting methods, in practice relatively few of these have been used for tourism forecasting.
Christine A. Witt and Stephen F. Witt
The purpose of this article is to examine empirically the impact of aggregation on forecasting accuracy; specifically, whether more accurate forecasts are obtained by forecasting…
Abstract
The purpose of this article is to examine empirically the impact of aggregation on forecasting accuracy; specifically, whether more accurate forecasts are obtained by forecasting a number of disaggregated tourist flows and summing the forecasts to obtain the aggregate forecast, or by summing the disaggregated tourist flows and forecasting the aggregate series directly. On the one hand, it may be easier to produce accurate forecasts from disaggregated series as the latter allow for differing behavioural patterns which may be more readily recognisable and hence easier to model and extrapolate. On the other hand, more aggregate series may be less susceptible to “noise” and therefore easier to forecast.
Stephen F. Witt and Christopher L. Pass
Implications of Modern Portfolio Theory for Investment Management. The general principles of portfolio management are explained by Dobbins and Witt, Sprecher, Francis, Van Home…
Abstract
Implications of Modern Portfolio Theory for Investment Management. The general principles of portfolio management are explained by Dobbins and Witt, Sprecher, Francis, Van Home and Fama and Miller. Portfolio theory is concerned with the choice of efficient combinations of assets and its foundation lies in the work of Markowitz. It is assumed that investors base their decisions simply on the expected return and variance of return of assets, where the variance is taken to measure risk. For any given level of risk, the optimal portfolio is that which offers the maximum expected return; and for any given expected return, the investor prefers minimum risk. The set of efficient portfolios therefore comprises those combinations of assets which promise the highest expected return corresponding to each level of risk.
Stephen F. Witt and Christopher L. Pass
The “causal model” approach to business forecasting attempts to discover, mainly on the basis of economic knowledge, those variables which appear to have influenced the forecast…
Abstract
The “causal model” approach to business forecasting attempts to discover, mainly on the basis of economic knowledge, those variables which appear to have influenced the forecast variable in the past, and then estimates by econometric methods the quantitative relationship between the causal and forecast variables. Future values of the forecast variable are then obtained by using forecasts of the causal variables in conjunction with the estimated relationship.
Christine A. Witt and Stephen F. Witt
Productivity growth in service industries has generally tended tobe lower than in manufacturing industries, and the hotel sector is noexception. Problems of measuring productivity…
Abstract
Productivity growth in service industries has generally tended to be lower than in manufacturing industries, and the hotel sector is no exception. Problems of measuring productivity are discussed, together with specific reasons for low productivity in the hotel sector. It is suggested that increased usage of operations management techniques by hotel management is likely to result in improved productivity, and various examples are presented of situations in which these techniques can be successfully employed.
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Stephen Witt and Richard Dobbins
The implications of modern portfolio theory for pension fund investment management are examined and compared with actual behaviour. It appears that the extent to which pension…
Abstract
The implications of modern portfolio theory for pension fund investment management are examined and compared with actual behaviour. It appears that the extent to which pension funds diversify goes far beyond that required for risk reduction, and therefore possible alternative motives are suggested. There is also some evidence of excessive equity trading.
Nach 1953 ist die Internationale Vereinigung wissen‐schaftlicher Fremdenverkehrsexperten zum zweiten Mal in Wien zum jährlichen Kongress versammelt. Damals nach Kriegsende ging es…
Abstract
Nach 1953 ist die Internationale Vereinigung wissen‐schaftlicher Fremdenverkehrsexperten zum zweiten Mal in Wien zum jährlichen Kongress versammelt. Damals nach Kriegsende ging es darum, einem langsam wiedererstarkten Tourismus eine solide wissenschaftliche Basis zu geben. Es waren auch die Tourismuswissenschafter der klassischen Fremdenverkehrsländer Italien, Spanien, Österreich und der Schweiz, welche sich 1949 erstmals in der Schweiz trafen, um diesem Vorhaben eine konkrete Struktur zu geben. Prof. Paul Bernecker, als einer dieser Promotoren — genannt seien hier die andern: Prof. Walter Hunziker (bis 1973 Präsident), Prof. Kurt Krapf (erster Generalsekretär) und Prof. Angelo Mariotti — übernahm es, den Wiener Kongress zu organisieren. Er war dem Thema “Marktforschung und Werbung im Fremdenverkehr” gewidmet, übrigens ein nach wie vor aktuelles Thema, auch wenn die Terminologie heute in Marketing bzw. Marktbearbeitung oder Kommunikationspolitik erweitert wurde.
Stephen F. Witt and Christine A. Martin
The objective of this study is to develop a set of econometric models for use in forecasting international tourist demand, as represented by the number of tourist visits, from the…
Abstract
The objective of this study is to develop a set of econometric models for use in forecasting international tourist demand, as represented by the number of tourist visits, from the F.R. Germany and the United Kingdom to their respective major destinations.
Stephen F. Witt, Mireille Darius and Alan M. Sykes
Considerable attention has been devoted in the tourism literature to the construction and estimation of models explaining the demand for tourism (for a comprehensive review of…
Abstract
Considerable attention has been devoted in the tourism literature to the construction and estimation of models explaining the demand for tourism (for a comprehensive review of such models see Witt and Martin 1989). Such studies have, in general, focused upon holiday tourism or total tourism, with scant attention being paid to explaining the demand for congress tourism.
The English speaking working group was chaired by Stephen Witt, University of Swansea.