Zameelah Khan Jaffur, Boopen Seetanah, Verena Tandrayen-Ragoobur, Sheereen Fauzel, Viraiyan Teeroovengadum and Sonalisingh Ramsohok
This study aims at evaluating the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the export trade system for Mauritius during the first half of 2020 (January 2020–June 2020).
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims at evaluating the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the export trade system for Mauritius during the first half of 2020 (January 2020–June 2020).
Design/methodology/approach
An initial analysis of the monthly export time series data proves that on the whole, the series have diverged from their actual trends after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic: observed values are less than those predicted by the selected optimal forecast models. The authors subsequently employ the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) framework for causal analysis to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the island's export system.
Findings
Overall, the findings show that the COVID-19 pandemic has a statistically significant and negative impact on the Mauritian export trade system, with the five main export trading partners and sectors the most affected. Despite that the impact in some cases is not apparent for the period of study, the results indicate that total exports will surely be affected by the pandemic in the long run. Nevertheless, this depends on the measures taken both locally and globally to mitigate the spread of the pandemic.
Originality/value
This study thus contributes to the growing literature on the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic by focussing on a small island economy.
Baboo M. Nowbutsing and Sonalisingh Ramsohok
The relationship between China and Mauritius dates back centuries due to the Chinese diaspora in Mauritius. The rise of China in the global economy has raised several questions…
Abstract
Purpose
The relationship between China and Mauritius dates back centuries due to the Chinese diaspora in Mauritius. The rise of China in the global economy has raised several questions. China is investing massively in several nations. The question remains whether it is for mutual benefits or the Chinese quest for world dominance. China is the second top importing partner of Mauritius. However, the main export destinations of Mauritius remain Europe and the USA. The purpose of this paper is to address the impact of the emergence of China on the Mauritian economy.
Design/methodology/approach
In order to assess the short‐term costs stemming from Chinese competition, the authors have built two indexes of trade competition. The aim of these indexes is to compare the exporting structure of China with Mauritius in a particular period of time. If the exporting structure between two countries is quite similar, then trade competition is more likely. These indexes are built using the Comtrade database. The indexes are modified versions of the well‐known coefficient of specialisation (CS) and coefficient of conformity (CC). These two indexes examine and compare the exporting structure of Mauritius and China to finally show the degree of trade competition between the two economies. Further the paper adopts the Engle Granger procedure to assess the impact of import competition from China.
Findings
Using two indexes of trade competition, it is found that both countries have similar export structure. The authors presume that it will be impossible for Mauritius to compete with China mainly because of the latter's cheap labour advantage and natural resources availability. Further, it was found that while Mauritius is consolidating its revealed comparative advantage (RCA) in its two top exporting products, China's RCA is increasing in those products where that of Mauritius is decreasing. Finally, it was found that an increase in real GDP per capita will have a positive impact on Mauritius and there is no relationship between the two countries' openness.
Originality/value
To the knowledge of the authors, this is the first study attempting to assess the impact of the rise of China on the Mauritius economy. Further, the analyses make use of a both statistical and econometric analysis to tackle the problem in hand.