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The purpose of this paper is to assess the duration of the UK commercial property cycles, their volatility and persistence to gauge future market direction.

The study employs a novel approach to dissect cycles in a form of a three-step algorithm. First, the Hodrick-Prescott de-trends the selected variables. Second, volatility (measured by the variance) screens periods of atypical fluctuations in the series. Finally, the series is regressed against its past values to assess the level of persistence. The sequential steps screen the length of the cycles in UK commercial property market to facilitate interpretation.

The estimates suggest that UK commercial property market follows an eight-year cycle. Combined modelling results indicate that the current market trend is likely to change over the coming year. The modelling suggests increasing probability of a market correction in late 2016/early 2017.

This updated appreciation of the UK commercial property cycle duration allows for better market timing and investment decision making.

The paper adds additional evidence on the contested issue of UK commercial property cycle duration.

Kuala Lumpur (KL) emerged as the capital of the newly independent Federation of Malayan States in 1957 with a population of 316,000. Over the next 60 years, the city expanded into a major urban regional conurbation. It now covers an area of 2,790 km² and has a population of around 7.7 million. In the last two decades, market-driven, fast-track development, underpinned by road infrastructure has accelerated the city's urban transformation. Especially over the last two decades, a spate of urban redevelopments, including commercial and retail complexes, specialised centres, industrial parks, educational complexes and residential estates have transformed the Kuala Lumpur Metropolitan Region (KLMR) beyond recognition. KL is only one example among many of intensive Southeast Asian property-led urban development, fuelled by demographic pressures and global capital inflows that transformed the regional natural and built environments. The purpose of this study is to investigate the influence of globalisation, neoliberalism and property-led development, on the built form and socio-cultural legacies of the KLMR.

The major aim of this study is to determine how neoliberalism and property-led development have impacted the urban form and structure of the KLMR. The methodology applied in this study concentrates mainly on the use of qualitative research methods. The major qualitative research methods include qualitative analysis, field surveys and observations, primary and secondary data collection. The approach in this study is to exemplify the shift from government-sponsored development in the post-independence period to the current globalised-private oriented development.

The major findings of this research suggest that the global, property-led mode of urban development, whilst superficially successful, undermined traditional and tropical-climate urban landscapes. It also bequeathed many urban or property level problems, including traffic congestion, air pollution, planning governance and building management issues. The paper outlines narratives for a more balanced and sustainable mode of urban development, which is more in tune with local culture and climatic conditions.

This paper provides a deep insight analysis and evaluation of KL's growth from a small town into a global metropolitan region where property-led development dictates the rules and determines the character of the city.

The purpose of this paper is to sketch the UK housing backdrop, review the student private rented sector (PRS) and assess the experience of post-graduate university student tenants in the PRS.

A literature review puts the issues of student-PRS responsiveness into context and helps to untangle some UK housing issues. The private sector’s size, growth and performance is assessed by reviewing secondary data. In-depth interviews were then conducted at a regional university campus.

The study confirms accumulating evidence of an unbalanced UK housing market. The study identified four main PRS issues: first, rapid university expansion without accompanying residential construction has sparked rampant PRS growth with, second, quality issues, third, in tight letting market conditions, rented agent service levels fell and fourth, part of the problem is complex PRS management procedures.

The research has three noteworthy limitations. First, the macroeconomic analysis integrated secondary research without independent modelling. Second, the views of letting agents, university property managers, planning officers or landlords were not canvassed. Finally, the pilot interviews were geographically restricted.

When they expand, universities, local authorities and industry players need to give due consideration to plan for, design and develop quality student accommodation. Over-reliance on the PRS without informed oversight and coordination could undermine student experience and erode long-term UK competitiveness.

The lack of quality student rented accommodation mirrors a general housing malaise around affordability, polarisation and sustainable “dwelling”. Standards and professionalism in the rented sector is part of the overall quality mix to attract global talent.

The preliminary investigation uses mixed-methods to investigate PRS service delivery. It illustrates the interplay between professional property management and wider issues of metropolitan productivity, sustainability and resilience.

The purpose of this paper is to develop a General Systems Theory (GST) risk management framework and conducts a preliminary investigation into its potential benefits.

A risk management framework with four domains is developed by applying GST to property. Risk management in five listed Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts (A‐REITs) is benchmarked against the GST ideal using public web‐sites information. A‐REIT volatility‐adjusted returns are calculated using Treynor ratios for the year to May 2010. The link between risk management score and entity performance is then investigated.

The GST framework directs attention to risks involving surveillance, capacity and controls. However, as predicted by the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), the study found no link between assessed risk management and volatility‐moderated annual returns to May 2010.

The risk scoring was predicated on publicly available data, with limited analysis of financial statements. The sample size was restricted.

Successful entities are well governed, focused and innovative. Robust finances allow exploitation of emerging opportunity when business conditions become favourable. Planning and environmental management capabilities are essential.

The paper makes conceptual and practical contributions. Conceptually, it develops a GST risk management framework. Practically, albeit for a handful of entities, the paper illustrates how the GST approach to risk management could be effectively deployed. The paper also outlines a pathway for more refined risk management research.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the limitations and potential usefulness of a “knowledge city” concept as diversification vehicle for property investors.

The paper first dissects the “knowledge city” concept and then investigates whether it inoculates against economic turbulence as measured by growth and jobs recovery. The paper also looks at the protection offered by middle class population growth.

The idea of the “knowledge city” comes from earlier economic constructs but concentrated at the urban scale. There are two versions – a technical and one enriched with institutional and social dimensions. The limited analysis of selective secondary data suggests that “knowledge city” and strong middle class population growth provide some protection from economic and, presumably, property market instability.

Statistical limitations include arbitrary sample frames; lack of data and unclear spatial resolution, short time frames for aggregate analysis. Further research requires, first, a structured grading of knowledge precincts and, second, randomised sampling of individual properties to investigate any links between total risk‐adjusted performance is measured over a decade.

To mitigate risk, investors should consider re‐weighting their portfolios to increase exposure to knowledge cities and second‐tier but fast growing cities in emerging countries.

A knowledge‐city cannot be imposed by infrastructure, technology or place configuration alone. It involves multiple precinct configurations and subsidiarity. Institutions and people matter. A broader knowledge‐city conceptualisation helps inform planning, management and oversight for regional second‐tier cities.

Dissecting, noting the limits and drawing out the practical implications of the “knowledge city” concept.

The purpose of this paper is to review sustainable planning literature and investigate a major development in an Australian regional city, looking for broad sustainable insights to improve urban growth management.

First, the authors sketched the backdrop to Ipswich and looked for the drivers propelling its rapid growth. They then generated a sustainability framework from the urban regeneration literature. In the empirical phase, they analysed a major development – the Icon project. They evaluated three of five regeneration domains using secondary sources, site observations and interviews with stakeholders and experts.

First, each city’s situation is unique, so the authors proffer no simplistic development formula. Internally, cities, including Ipswich, are spatially fragmented. Second, urban regeneration extends temporally and spatially beyond the project site boundaries or deadlines. Diminished property-driven regeneration neglects the social dimensions to sustainable housing or relegates it to an afterthought, but community participation is insufficient. Government needs to seed or drive (directly or via incentives) substantive social transformation. Projects supported with credible community social development are less risky, but, in competing for investment funds, local government can rush approve unsuitable projects.

The analysis focused on the planning and urban design aspects of the project. Only limited demographic, economic and social analyses were conducted, and the study would also benefit from interviews with a broader sample of experts.

Sustainable urban regeneration needs to consider not only the unique mix of regional growth drivers and constraints, but also specific local precinct characteristics. Intelligently configured community consultation should inform but not dilute design leadership.

This work investigates appropriate urban responses to growth pressure for sustainable outcomes in fast-growing regional cities.

The commercial property market is complex, but the literature suggests that simple models can forecast it. To confirm the claim, the purpose of this paper is to assess a set of models to forecast UK commercial property market.

The employs five modelling techniques, including Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), ARIMA with a vector of an explanatory variable(s) (ARIMAX), Simple Regression (SR), Multiple Regression, and Vector Autoregression (VAR) to model IPD UK All Property Rents Index. The Bank Rate, Construction Orders, Employment, Expenditure, FTSE AS Index, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Inflation are all explanatory variables selected for the research.

The modelling results confirm that increased model complexity does not necessarily yield greater forecasting accuracy. The analysis shows that although the more complex VAR specification is amongst the best fitting models, its accuracy in producing out-of-sample forecasts is poorer than of some less complex specifications. The average Theil’s U-value for VAR model is around 0.65, which is higher than that of less complex SR with Expenditure (0.176) or ARIMAX (3,0,3) with GDP (0.31) as an explanatory variable models.

The paper calls analysts to make forecasts more user-friendly, which are easy to use or understand, and for researchers to pay greater attention to the development and improvement of simpler forecasting techniques or simplification of more complex structures.

The paper addresses the issue of complexity in modelling commercial property market. It advocates for simplicity in modelling and forecasting.

The paper aims to discuss the major and auxiliary types of cycles found in the literature.

The existence of cycles within economy and its sub-sectors has been studied for a number of years. In the wake of the recent cyclical downturn, interest in cycles has increased. To mitigate future risks, scholars and investors seek new insights for a better understanding of the cyclical phenomenon. The paper presents systematic review of the existing copious cyclical literature. It then discusses general characteristics and the key forces that produce these cycles.

The study finds four major and eight auxiliary cycles. It suggests that each cycle has its own distinct empirical periodicity and theoretical underpinnings. The longer the cycles are the greater controversy which surrounds them.

Cycles are monumental to a proper understanding of complex property market dynamics. Their existence implies that economies, whilst not deterministic, have a rhythm. Cyclical awareness can therefore advance property market participants.

The paper uncovers four major and eight auxiliary types of cycles and argues their importance.

This paper aims to investigate Lithuanian house price changes. Its twin motivations are the importance of information on future house price movements to sector stakeholders and the limited number of related Lithuanian property market studies.

The study employs ARIMA modelling approach. It assesses whether past is a good predictor of the future. It then examines issues relating to an application of this univariate time-series modelling technique in a forecasting context.

As the results of the study suggest, ARIMA is a useful technique to assess broad market price changes. Government and central bank can use ARIMA modelling approach to forecast national house price inflation. Developers can employ this methodology to drive successful house-building programme. Investor can incorporate forecasts from ARIMA models into investment strategy for timing purposes.

Certainly, there are number of limitations attached to this particular modelling approach. Firm predictions about house price movements are also a challenge, as well as more research needs to be done in establishing a dynamic interrelationship between macro variables and the Lithuanian housing market.

Although the research focused on Lithuania, the findings extend to global housing market. ARIMA house price modelling provides insights for a spectrum of stakeholders. The use of this modelling approach can be employed to improve monetary policy oversight, facilitate planning for infrastructure or social housing as a countercyclical policy and mitigate risk for investors. What is more, a greater appreciation of Lithuania housing market can act as a bellwether for real estate markets in other trade-exposed small country economies.