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The purpose of this paper is to identify sources and quantifying distortions to agricultural incentives to produce along the small ruminant value chains in Ethiopia.

National and district level average nominal rate of protection (NRPs) were computed for a five-year period (2010–2015). The authors developed four scenarios based on combinations of the different data generation processes employed in relation to each of the key variables.

The NRPs at farm gate and retail market for both sheep and goats are negative indicating a strong deviation of producer and retailer prices from the comparable export prices over the five-year period. Policy induced distortions were separated from market inefficiencies through use of data on access costs throughout the value chain. These access costs are positive and significant in value. It is clear that market inefficiencies are also due to government policy to a certain extent.

This study focuses only on sheep and goat value chains and covers only five-year period. This certainly limits the extrapolability of the results.

This study presents the extent to which smallholder livestock keepers are discouraged through disincentives in a unique context. This is the first study done on small ruminant value chains in the developing world.

This paper assesses the projected growth of food supply relative to population growth and estimated food demand growth over the next four decades.

World population projections are analyzed for the main developed and developing regions. Implied food demand growth is then compared to grain and oilseed supply projections from a few of the most reliable sources. Three of these are 10-year projections and two extend to 2030 and 2050. To the extent possible, comparisons are made among the alternative projections. Conclusions about food availability and prices are finally drawn.

Meeting the growth in demand for food, feed, and biofuels to 2050 will not be a steep hill to climb, but there will need to be continued private and public investment in technology to induce increased production growth rates through productivity enhancements and increased purchased inputs.

The main food security challenge of the future, as in the present, is not insufficient production but rather increasing access and reducing vulnerability for food insecure households. The dominance of future population growth in the food insecure regions of Africa makes this challenge even more critical between now and 2050 and even more so in the years beyond 2050 when climate change effects on resource constraints will be more severe.