Zhao-Peng Li, Li Yang, Si-Rui Li and Xiaoling Yuan
China’s national carbon market will be officially launched in 2020, when it will become the world’s largest carbon market. However, China’s carbon market is faced with various…
Abstract
Purpose
China’s national carbon market will be officially launched in 2020, when it will become the world’s largest carbon market. However, China’s carbon market is faced with various major challenges. One of the most important challenges is its impact on the social and economic development of arid and semi-arid regions. By simulating the carbon price trends under different economic development and energy consumption levels, this study aims to help the government can plan ahead to formulate various countermeasures to promote the integration of arid and semi-arid regions into the national carbon market.
Design/methodology/approach
To achieve this goal, this paper builds a back propagation neural network model, takes the third phase of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) as the research object and uses the mean impact value method to screen out the important driving variables of European Union Allowance (EUA) price, including economic development (Stoxx600, Stoxx50, FTSE, CAC40 and DAX), black energy (coal and Brent), clean energy (gas, PV Crystalox Solar and Nordex) and carbon price alternatives Certification Emission Reduction (CER). Finally, this paper sets up six scenarios by combining the above variables to simulate the impact of different economic development and energy consumption levels on carbon price trends.
Findings
Under the control of the unchanged CER price level, economic development, black energy and clean energy development will all have a certain impact on the EUA price trends. When economic development, black energy consumption and clean energy development are on the rise, the EUA price level will increase. When the three types of variables show a downward trend, except for the sluggish development of clean energy, which will cause the EUA price to rise sharply, the EUA price trend will also decline accordingly in the remaining scenarios.
Originality/value
On the one hand, this paper incorporates driving factors of carbon price into the construction of carbon price prediction system, which not only has higher prediction accuracy but also can simulate the long-term price trend. On the other hand, this paper uses scenario simulation to show the size, direction and duration of the impact of economic development, black energy consumption and clean energy development on carbon prices in a more intuitive way.
Details
Keywords
The purpose of this paper is to provide the historical background of genealogical records and analyze the value of Chinese genealogical research through the study of names and…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to provide the historical background of genealogical records and analyze the value of Chinese genealogical research through the study of names and genealogical resources.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper examines the historical evolution and value of Chinese genealogical records, with the focus on researching the Islamic Chinese names used by the people living in Guilin. The highlight of this paper includes the analysis and evolution of the Islamic Chinese names commonly adopted by the local people in Guilin. It concludes with the recommendations on emphasizing and making the best use of genealogical records to enhance the research value of Chinese overseas studies.
Findings
The paper covers the history of Islam and describes how the religion was introduced into China, as well as Muslims' ethnicity and identity. It also places focus on the importance of building a research collection in Asian history and Chinese genealogy.
Research limitations/implications
This research study has a strong subject focus on Chinese genealogy, Asian history, and Islamic Chinese surnames. It is a narrow field that few researchers have delved into.
Practical implications
The results of this study will assist students, researchers, and the general public in tracing the origin of their surnames and developing their interest in the social and historical value of Chinese local history and genealogies.
Social implications
The study of Chinese surnames is, by itself, a particular field for researching the social and political implications of contemporary Chinese society during the time the family members lived.
Originality/value
Very little research has been done in the area of Chinese local history and genealogy. The paper would be of value to researchers such as historians, sociologists, ethnologists and archaeologists, as well as students and anyone interested in researching a surname origin, its history and evolution.