Rahul Roy and Santhakumar Shijin
The purpose of the study is to examine the dynamics in the troika of asset pricing, volatility, and the business cycle in the US and Japan.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of the study is to examine the dynamics in the troika of asset pricing, volatility, and the business cycle in the US and Japan.
Design/methodology/approach
The study uses a six-factor asset pricing model to derive the realized volatility measure for the GARCH-type models.
Findings
The comprehensive empirical investigation led to the following conclusion. First, the results infer that the market portfolio and human capital are the primary discounting factors in asset return predictability during various phases of the subprime crisis phenomenon for the US and Japan. Second, the empirical estimates neither show any significant impact of past conditional volatility on the current conditional volatility nor any significant effect of subprime crisis episodes on the current conditional volatility in the US and Japan. Third, there is no asymmetric volatility effect during the subprime crisis phenomenon in the US and Japan except the asymmetric volatility effect during the post-subprime crisis period in the US and full period in Japan. Fourth, the volatility persistence is relatively higher during the subprime crisis period in the US, whereas during the subprime crisis transition period in Japan than the rest of the phases of the subprime crisis phenomenon.
Originality/value
The study argues that the empirical investigations that employed the autoregressive method to derive the realized volatility measure for the parameter estimation of GARCH-type models may result in incurring spurious estimates. Further, the empirical results of the study show that using the six-factor asset pricing model in an intertemporal framework to derive the realized volatility measure yields better estimation results while estimating the parameters of GARCH-type models.
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Mohammed Iqbal and Shijin Santhakumar
This study aims to measure the magnitude of information asymmetry between insiders and outsiders in Indian equity market. The study also investigates the effect of major…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to measure the magnitude of information asymmetry between insiders and outsiders in Indian equity market. The study also investigates the effect of major information sources that affect information asymmetry namely, the informativeness of financial statements, news reports about the company and analyst follow-up.
Design/methodology/approach
Six-month profitability of insider trade was used as the proxy to measure information asymmetry. Fama-MacBeth two-stage regression was used to analyse the effect of information sources upon information asymmetry.
Findings
The results of the analysis demonstrate that in comparison with findings of similar studies the level of information asymmetry is comparatively high in India. On an average, profitable insider traders in India earn 19.28 per cent return than outside investors. Purchase transactions are more profitable than sales transactions, while the size of company and information asymmetry is associated inversely. Further, news and analyst follow-up are inversely associated with information asymmetry whereas informativeness of financial statements has little effect on information asymmetry.
Practical implications
The study have important insights for corporates in insider information management and legal compliance of insiders’ market activities. Results pointing to the requirements of a deeper Regulatory monitoring and stringent legal framework.
Social implications
The result validates the concerns of investor protection against informed trade.
Originality/value
The measurement of information asymmetry using profitability of insider trade is novel in Indian context even though the methodology is often used in the literature.
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Afsheena P. and Shijin Santhakumar
The asymmetric effect of conservatism on earnings and its other components serves as a contrivance to incorporate transparency and timeliness in financial reporting. This study…
Abstract
Purpose
The asymmetric effect of conservatism on earnings and its other components serves as a contrivance to incorporate transparency and timeliness in financial reporting. This study aims to explore cash flow-return association, which provides insight into the accruals’ contribution that traverses through conservatism-earnings persistence liaison and its associated effects on stock returns.
Design/methodology/approach
The study used asymmetric timeliness (AT) model and two firm-year measures, namely, C-Score and conservatism ratio, to capture conservatism. The firm-year measures of conservatism, in addition to the AT measure, facilitate a better understanding of the persistence of reported earnings that branch out the study from the existing literature. Further, the study used panel regression analysis to evaluate the timeliness and persistence of earnings under the conservative approach with a sample of Indian corporate data from 2000 to 2017.
Findings
The findings of the study reveal that conservative earnings are less persistent and the accruals recognize bad news timelier than good news. The unfavorable change in earnings shows a lower earnings response coefficient in contrast to favorable earnings variations. However, the appropriate loss recognition nature of conservative reporting has little or no influence on stock returns in an emerging market such as India.
Research limitations/implications
Accounting conservatism is a captivating feature accounting information, especially pertinent to many decision-makers. Thus, the study has implications for the investors while evaluating the adverse and positive changes in accounting earnings; also, the results are helpful for the standard setters in ongoing debate related to accounting conservatism vs fair evaluation. The present study focuses exclusively on ex-post conservatism, while the ex post and ex ante conservatism are having a significant role in accounting practices. Future research on the differential effects of ex post and ex ante conservatism on accounting information in an emerging market, is worth promising.
Originality/value
The study reveals the first Indian evidence on accounting conservatism and earnings persistence relationship, which would bring a different dimension to investors’ perception in evaluating the characteristic variations of reported earnings. The findings add value to the accounting standard setters concerning the asymmetric verification as Indian Accounting standards are on the verge of convergence with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS).
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Sruthi Rajan and Shijin Santhakumar
The innovations in fundamentals coupled with noise traders induce co-movement in diverse markets. This co-movement in equity markets which is evidenced higher during the turmoil…
Abstract
Purpose
The innovations in fundamentals coupled with noise traders induce co-movement in diverse markets. This co-movement in equity markets which is evidenced higher during the turmoil period influences economic fundamentals of a country dissimilar in nature. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether economic fundamentals or investors’ behavior attributable to disturbances across the world are the rationale behind the crisis transmission, and thereby distinguish fundamental-based contagion from investor-induced contagion.
Design/methodology/approach
Initially, the study investigates the role of macroeconomic fundamentals and stock returns on crisis occurrence using panel probit estimates. Additionally, ordinary least squares estimates controlling the influence of fundamentals on domestic return capture the discrete country effect measuring the influence of domestic as well as foreign economic fundamentals along with foreign returns on the domestic stock index.
Findings
The empirical results reveal that foreign country stock index returns are having a significant influence on domestic returns besides a prominent role in crisis occurrence. The binary probit model confirmed the influence of both macroeconomic factors and foreign returns in crisis occurrence. The OLS estimates found evidence for investor-induced contagion in the crisis period where the effects of economic fundamentals are small in comparison to foreign market returns that are mainly dominant in pre- and post-crisis period.
Research limitations/implications
The propagation of crisis from one market to other would enable the policy makers to make clear regulations at right time to control for the crisis in future. The results can help the policy makers as well as investors in reducing the impact of the crisis in future by clearly monitoring the behavior of the factors under study.
Originality/value
The current study addresses the role of macro fundamentals and investors influence in crisis propagation. Adopting subprime crisis of 2008-2009 as a reference point and separating the sample period into pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis period, the study explains how badly the other 30 markets impacted the crisis that emerged in the USA.
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Santhakumar Shijin, Arun Kumar Gopalaswamy and Debashis Acharya
The purpose of this paper is to test a discrete time asset pricing model where a non‐marketable asset (human capital), along with other factors predicting stock returns, explain…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to test a discrete time asset pricing model where a non‐marketable asset (human capital), along with other factors predicting stock returns, explain risk return relationship. The paper will add to the literature on risk return relationship with human capital by investigating the hypothesis that human capital is a significant factor affecting stock prices.
Design/methodology/approach
The dynamic inter‐linkages of factors representing financial and human components of wealth in predicting stock returns is tested in the Indian market for the period of 1996:04 to 2005:06. The procedures employed include Granger causality tests, impulse response functions and seemingly unrelated regression estimates.
Findings
Empirical findings validate the model that including human capital as a proxy for aggregate wealth in the economy can better predict stock prices than the standard empirical capital asset pricing model. There is a Granger cause relationship between security prices and labor income and it is further concluded that labor and dividend are significant factors affecting security prices.
Originality/value
This is one of the first papers to study the human capital aspect in predicting stock returns in the Indian market. In addition, the paper provides important insights into the causal relationship of human capital and market return in explaining the risk return relationship.