With the global financial crisis, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) experienced its own unraveling of macro-financial imbalances and thus presents an interesting case to analyze the…
Abstract
Purpose
With the global financial crisis, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) experienced its own unraveling of macro-financial imbalances and thus presents an interesting case to analyze the underlying fragilities in federal governments. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the evolution of fiscal policy in the UAE at consolidated and subnational levels in the run-up and after the crisis, and provide pertinent insights about the importance of policy coordination in other federal fiscal systems – and monetary unions, as brought to light by the recent developments in Europe.
Design/methodology/approach
In measuring the cyclicality of fiscal balances at the consolidated and emirate level in the UAE, this paper uses the non-hydrocarbon primary budget balance, excluding interest spending and hydrocarbon revenues, investment income of the sovereign wealth fund, scaled by non-hydrocarbon GDP. The cyclically adjusted primary balance is estimated by deducting cyclical components from the actual balance. It is important to correct for cyclical changes because the budget balance tends to vary endogenously according the state of the economy – deteriorating during a bust and improving in a boom. Furthermore, since hydrocarbon revenues are dependent on the erratic behavior of hydrocarbon prices, the cyclically adjusted non-hydrocarbon primary balance is computed, using the elasticity of non-hydrocarbon revenues and primary expenditures relative to non-hydrocarbon GDP, to assess whether fiscal policy exacerbates economic fluctuations in the UAE at the aggregate and emirate levels.
Findings
The empirical findings show that procyclical fiscal policies prior to the crisis reinforced the financial sector cycle, exacerbated the economic upswing, and thereby contributed to the build-up of macro-financial vulnerabilities. The paper also sets out policy lessons to develop a rule-based fiscal framework that would help strengthen fiscal policy coordination between the various layers of government and ensure long-term fiscal sustainability and a more equitable intergenerational distribution of wealth.
Originality/value
The lack of fiscal policy coordination among subnational governments complicates macro-economic management at the federal level. Since the UAE has a pegged exchange rate regime and consequently a limited scope to use monetary policy, the burden of macro-economic stabilization falls on fiscal policy. Accordingly, this paper shows that procyclical fiscal policies prior to the crisis reinforced the “financial accelerator” effect, exacerbated the economic cycle, and thereby contributed to the build-up of economic and financial vulnerabilities in the UAE.
Details
Keywords
Climate investment globally topped USD1tn last year but remains well short of the estimated USD8tn requirement. Most funding goes to developed economies and mitigation projects…
Details
DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB284298
ISSN: 2633-304X
Keywords
Geographic
Topical
Both international and domestic developments have combined to bring the corporate governance (CG) debate to the fore in Turkey. Given this increased interest in CG matters and the…
Abstract
Both international and domestic developments have combined to bring the corporate governance (CG) debate to the fore in Turkey. Given this increased interest in CG matters and the significance of Turkey as an emerging market, we provide an overview of the Turkish CG framework with two objectives in mind: (i) contributing to the growing CG literature by presenting the main aspects of the CG practice in Turkey, and (ii) locating the Turkish CG reform agenda within the global debate – especially as it relates to the practice in emerging markets. We begin with a review of the CG debate as it relates to emerging markets. We then provide an account of the socio‐economic environment within which the Turkish CG debate is unfolding. This is followed by an examination of the external (market‐related) and internal (firm‐related) dimensions of the Turkish CG framework. Finally, we summarize the main findings and offer some recommendations for a successful reform initiative in Turkey.