Search results

The purpose of this paper is to test the export‐led growth hypothesis for Iran.

This is done through an investigation of causal relationship between exports and economic growth, based on Hsiao's synthesis and Akaike's optimal lag criterion, and then by examining the impact of disaggregated exports on economic growth. Using annual time series data, it covers the period of 1970‐2001.

The evidence supports the export‐led growth hypothesis for aggregate exports. This is not due to accounting effect; since the results indicate that real export growth also causes net‐real GDP growth for Iran. In examining the effects of decomposition of exports and growth, while oil exports are found to have a very important role, manufactured exports are suggested to have the potential to bear further growth in the future.

The paper provides evidence from Iran linking exports to economic growth.

At present, countries are concerned about inflation and the impact of inflation on each country’s economic growth. This inflation has been said by economists that inflation is a phenomenon of currency and currency, which has caused inflation in some countries by their monetary policy. According to the economic theory of Karl Marx, Irving Fisher, Friedman, inflation is caused by a continuous increase in the money supply.

The economic theories of Fisher, Friedman and an econometric model are applied to analyse the relationship between money supply and inflation. Besides, Vietnam’s and China’s research data are also collected in the period of 2012-2016.

It is found out that the continuous increase in the money supply causes inflation in the long-term, but the continuous increase in the money supply growth does not cause inflation in a short time, this was analyzed based on the theory of monetary quantity. Moreover, Chia’s and Vietnam’s correlations of the money supply growth and inflation are 99.1 per cent. These correlations are very close.

Research results show that money supply and inflation are closely related, and the money supply directly affects economic growth. Therefore, the government should have the relevant monetary policy to grow the economy and proposals to make monetary policy, control inflation levels and stimulate economic growth.