The purpose of this paper is to assess model risk with regard to wind energy output in monthly cash flow models for the purpose of valuation and risk assessment of wind farm…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to assess model risk with regard to wind energy output in monthly cash flow models for the purpose of valuation and risk assessment of wind farm investments, where only a few approaches exist in the literature.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper focuses on the risk-return characteristics of this investment from the perspective of private and institutional investors and takes into account several risks, in particular the resource risk related to the uncertainty of the monthly wind energy produced. To this end, this paper presents different approaches for modeling monthly wind power output and assesses the impact of three selected models with different properties on the investment’s risk-return characteristics by means of a stochastic discounted cash flow model. In addition, the model considers the possibility of a joint operation of the wind farm with a pumped hydro storage system to reduce risk and improve profits.
Findings
The results show that the (non-)consideration of seasonality of the monthly wind energy produced considerably influences the risk-return characteristics, but that principal developments dependent on input parameters and model variables remain similar.
Originality/value
This paper contributes to the literature by presenting different approaches for modeling the monthly wind energy produced based on direct models of the wind energy output, which are rare in the existing literature. Further, their impact on risk-return characteristics of a wind farm investment is analyzed, and thus, related model risk is assessed.
Details
Keywords
Sarah Krömer and Nadine Gatzert
The purpose of this paper is to study investments in renewable energy projects which are jointly operated with an energy storage system, with particular focus on risk-return…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to study investments in renewable energy projects which are jointly operated with an energy storage system, with particular focus on risk-return characteristics from the perspective of private and institutional investors, taking into account resource risk, energy price risk, inflation risk and policy risk.
Design/methodology/approach
To this end, this paper presents a stochastic discounted cash flow model which is then applied to a wind farm with a pumped hydro storage system.
Findings
The results show that energy storage systems have the potential to increase the expected present value of future investment cash flows and to hedge (downside) risk. However, to realize this potential, storage systems have to be cost-effective in terms of fixed operation, maintenance, staffing and insurance costs. Also, several key factors are identified which have a considerable influence on the performance of the operation strategy.
Originality/value
The paper contributes to the literature by conducting an analysis of (downside) risk and return of renewable energy investments with a storage system taking into account stochastic policy, resource, inflation and energy price risk.
Details
Keywords
THE thoughts of all librarians, chief librarians in particular, are now turned upon the annual conference of the Library Association at Manchester. We understand that all the…
Abstract
THE thoughts of all librarians, chief librarians in particular, are now turned upon the annual conference of the Library Association at Manchester. We understand that all the projects of the conference, which we have commented upon in earlier issues, are proceeding satisfactorily. By this time most of our readers who intend to go will have obtained their accommodation in the city. But we advise those who have not done so to delay no longer.
Tessa Withorn, Carolyn Caffrey, Joanna Messer Kimmitt, Jillian Eslami, Anthony Andora, Maggie Clarke, Nicole Patch, Karla Salinas Guajardo and Syann Lunsford
This paper aims to present recently published resources on library instruction and information literacy providing an introductory overview and a selected annotated bibliography of…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to present recently published resources on library instruction and information literacy providing an introductory overview and a selected annotated bibliography of publications covering all library types.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper introduces and annotates English-language periodical articles, monographs, dissertations, reports and other materials on library instruction and information literacy published in 2018.
Findings
The paper provides a brief description of all 422 sources, and highlights sources that contain unique or significant scholarly contributions.
Originality/value
The information may be used by librarians and anyone interested as a quick reference to literature on library instruction and information literacy.