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Article
Publication date: 15 November 2024

Olfa Belhassine and Montassar Riahi

This study aims to evaluate the safe haven property of several assets against the US and European stock markets during the Russo-Ukrainian War in a time–frequency framework.

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Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to evaluate the safe haven property of several assets against the US and European stock markets during the Russo-Ukrainian War in a time–frequency framework.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses the wavelet-based dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC-GARCH) methodology and wavelet coherence on daily returns for the S&P500, STOXX600 and 13 possible save haven assets.

Findings

The results show that wheat and corn are the best assets to use as hedges and safe havens for all types of investors. The second-ranked are energy commodities, which are hedges and safe havens for long-term investors. Gold, silver and palladium display hedging and safe haven qualities for medium- and long-term investment. However, cryptocurrencies, the Dow Jones sustainability index and Islamic indices do not act as safe havens for most holding periods.

Practical implications

These findings have significant implications for portfolio investment strategies in times of geopolitical risks.

Originality/value

The contributions of this study are twofold. First, several assets from different classes were analyzed as possible candidates for safe havens. Second, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to analyze safe haven property through different investment horizons for the US and the European stock market indices during the Russo-Ukrainian War.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 42 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

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Article
Publication date: 2 February 2023

Mourad Mroua and Hejer Bouattour

This paper examines the time-varying return connectedness between renewable energy, oil, precious metals, the Gulf Council Cooperation region and the United States stock markets…

488

Abstract

Purpose

This paper examines the time-varying return connectedness between renewable energy, oil, precious metals, the Gulf Council Cooperation region and the United States stock markets during two successive crises: the pandemic Covid-19 and the 2022 Russo-Ukrainian war. The main objective is to investigate the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russo-Ukrainian war on the connectedness between the considered stock markets.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper uses the time-varying parameter vector autoregression approach, which represents an extension of the Spillover approach (Diebold and Yilmaz, 2009, 2012, 2014), to examine the time-varying connectedness among stock markets.

Findings

This paper reflects the effect of the two crises on the stock markets in terms of shock transmission degree. We find that the United States and renewable energy stock markets are the main net emitters of shocks during the global period and not just during the two considered crises sub-periods. Oil stock market is both an emitter and a receiver of shocks against Gulf Council Cooperation region and United States markets during the full sample period, which may be due to price fluctuation especially during the two crises sub-periods, which suggests that the future is for renewable energy.

Originality/value

This paper examines the effect of the two recent and successive crises, the Covid-19 pandemic and the 2022 Russo-Ukrainian war, on the connectedness among traditional stock markets (the United States and Gulf Council Cooperation region) and commodities stock markets (renewable energy, oil and precious metals).

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. 15 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

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Article
Publication date: 16 December 2024

Dimitrios Panagiotou and Konstantinos Karamanis

The purpose of this paper is to measure price risk transfer from futures prices to spot prices in the markets of energy commodities.

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to measure price risk transfer from futures prices to spot prices in the markets of energy commodities.

Design/methodology/approach

To this end, it estimates CoVaR functions for five futures-spot prices pairs of energy commodities. To account for the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic as well as for the effects of the RussoUkrainian conflict, the total sample has been split into three sub-samples. The first one contains observations from 01/01/2010–3/11/2020, which marks the official declaration of the coronavirus as a global pandemic. The second sub-sample uses observations from 3/12/2020–2/24/2022, which marks the beginning of the RussoUkrainian conflict, and the third one includes observations from 2/25/2022 up to 8/31/2023.

Findings

Results indicate that the effect of the coronavirus pandemic was to increase the risk of price transfer from futures markets to spot markets, in all of the energy commodities examined. On the other hand, the effect of the escalation of the RussoUkrainian conflict was to significantly reduce the price risk transfer from the futures markets to the spot markets, in all five energy commodities.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to use CoVaR functions to estimate risk transfer among the energy commodities. In addition, it separates and estimates the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic as well as the effects of the RussoUkrainian conflict.

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

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Article
Publication date: 2 April 2024

Muhammad Muddasir, Ana Pinto Borges, Elvira Vieira and Bruno Miguel Vieira

This study aims to address the macroeconomic factors effect on the travel and leisure (T&L) industry throughout Europe within the context of the Russo-Ukrainian war that have…

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Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to address the macroeconomic factors effect on the travel and leisure (T&L) industry throughout Europe within the context of the Russo-Ukrainian war that have started on 24 February 2022. Specifically, top tourist destinations are analysed, such as Spain, France, Italy and Portugal, as well as Europe in general.

Design/methodology/approach

This study adopts the panel regression approach based on the data that is provided on a daily basis, and it covers a period of nearly 14 months, starting on 24 February 2022 and ending on 15 April 2023.

Findings

The findings indicate that the European T&L sector is impacted by macroeconomic variables. Namely, the T&L sector is significantly impacted by interest rates, geopolitical risk, oil and gas, whereas inflation has a muted effect, indicating a comparatively lesser influence on the dynamics of the industry. This research contributes to existing literature by providing one of the first quantitative analyses of how macroeconomic factors impact the European T&L business in the context of a geopolitical conflict.

Research limitations/implications

A study of the Russian–Ukrainian war may be limited by a number of research constraints. The continuing nature of the conflict, the lack of communication between the parties and potential political prejudice are some of these difficulties. Any research on the Russo-Ukrainian war should be done with these limits in mind.

Practical implications

Macroeconomic variables play a significant role on the T&L sector development; therefore, when designing resilience strategies, they need to be accounted for.

Originality/value

To the best of authors’ knowledge, this is one of the first studies to analyse how macroeconomic factors affected the European T&L business using a quantitative approach. The macroeconomic variables that were taken into account in this study included interest rates, inflation, oil and petrol prices, as well as the geopolitical risk index.

目的

本研究探讨在 2022 年 2 月 24 日开始的俄乌战争对整个欧洲旅游和休闲 (T&L) 行业的宏观经济因素的影响。具体来说, 本文分析了著名旅游目的地, 例如西班牙, 法国, 义大利和葡萄牙, 以及整个欧洲。

方法

研究采用基于每天提供的数据的面板回归方法, 涵盖近 14 个月, 从 2022 年 2 月 24 日开始, 到 2023 年 4 月 15 日结束。

调查结果

我们的研究结果表明, 欧洲运输和物流行业受到宏观经济变数的影响。也就是说, 运输和物流行业受到利率、地缘政治风险、石油和天然气的严重影响, 而通货膨胀的影响则很温和。

研究局限性

对俄乌战争的研究可能受到许多研究限制的限制。冲突的持续性质、各方之间缺乏沟通以及潜在的政治偏见是其中一些困难。任何关于俄乌战争的研究都应该考虑到这些限制。

原创性

据我们所知, 这是首批使用定量方法分析宏观经济因素如何影响欧洲运输和物流业务的研究之一。本研究考虑的宏观经济变数包括利率、通货膨胀、石油和汽油价格, 以及地缘政治风险指数。

实际影响

宏观经济变数在运输和物流行业发展中起着重要作用, 因此, 在设计弹性策略时, 需要考虑它们。

Finalidad

La presente investigación aborda el efecto de los factores macroeconómicos en la industria de viajes y ocio (VyO) en toda Europa en el contexto de la guerra ruso-ucraniana que comenzó el 24 de febrero de 2022. En concreto, se analizan los principales destinos turísticos, como España, Francia, Italia y Portugal, así como Europa en general.

Metodología

El estudio adopta un enfoque de regresión de panel basado en datos diarios y cubre un período de casi 14 meses, del 24 de febrero de 2022 al 15 de abril de 2023.

Resultados

Nuestros resultados indican que el sector europeo de VyO se ve afectado por variables macroeconómicas. En concreto, el sector se ve significativamente afectado por los tipos de interés, el riesgo geopolítico, el petróleo y el gas, mientras que la inflación tiene un efecto moderado.

Limitaciones de la investigación

Un estudio de la guerra ruso-ucraniana puede verse limitado por una serie de restricciones a la investigación. La persistencia del conflicto, la falta de comunicación entre las partes y los posibles prejuicios políticos son algunas de estas dificultades. Cualquier investigación sobre la guerra ruso-ucraniana debe hacerse teniendo en cuenta estos límites.

Implicaciones prácticas

Las variables macroeconómicas desempeñan un papel importante en el desarrollo del sector de VyO, por lo que es necesario tenerlas en cuenta al diseñar estrategias de resiliencia.

Originalidad

Hasta donde sabemos, éste es uno de los primeros estudios que analiza cómo los factores macroeconómicos afectaron al negocio europeo de VyO utilizando un enfoque cuantitativo. Las variables macroeconómicas que se tuvieron en cuenta en este estudio fueron los tipos de interés, la inflación, los precios del petróleo y de la gasolina, así como el índice de riesgo geopolítico.

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Article
Publication date: 26 November 2024

A. Bouteska, Mohamad Kabir Hassan and M. Faisal Safa

This paper aims to use three proxy variables – initial public offerings, trading volume and business confidence index (BCI) to construct an investor sentiment index both for the…

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to use three proxy variables – initial public offerings, trading volume and business confidence index (BCI) to construct an investor sentiment index both for the USA and China, taking into account the challenging periods of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.

Design/methodology/approach

Based on monthly data for a period from January 2009 to June 2022, this paper uses data of BCI, consumer confidence index (CCI), gross domestic product, trading volume and Fama and French (1993) factor data; linear regression of single and multifactor model; and EGARCH-M model for analyzing the effect of investor sentiment on stock market return and volatility, both in the USA and China.

Findings

The empirical results indicate the suitability of BCI over CCI as a measure of investor sentiment, both in the USA and China. The results indicate that investor sentiment has a significant positive effect on the excess returns in the stock market in both countries. Moreover, the effect of investor sentiment is higher in China than it is in the USA. Such an effect of investor sentiment is significant and fluctuates asymmetrically in the short run but loses its significance in the long run. Optimistic investor sentiment has a larger effect on the stock market volatility in the USA, while the pessimistic investor sentiment has a larger effect in the Chinese stock market.

Originality/value

This paper focuses on finding a more suitable proxy for investor sentiment from BCI or CCI. This paper also contributes by including both optimism and pessimism in explaining the stock return and volatility in both markets. The overall findings are important for understanding investor behavior in different market conditions.

Details

International Journal of Accounting & Information Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1834-7649

Keywords

Available. Open Access. Open Access
Article
Publication date: 4 March 2025

Olena Shevtsova, Jenny Madestam and Anders Ivarsson Westerberg

Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine threw all spheres of life in that country into turmoil. The public service was tasked to foster resilience and ensure the continued…

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Abstract

Purpose

Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine threw all spheres of life in that country into turmoil. The public service was tasked to foster resilience and ensure the continued functioning of the state. Our purpose is to study how a war-shaped public leaders’ understandings of the leadership necessary for tackling emerging crises in a swiftly shifting environment while delivering services to citizens and continuing reforms toward EU membership.

Design/methodology/approach

The research reflects the analysis of 15 semi-structured interviews with members of Ukraine’s public service from various parts of the country conducted in September–October 2023. Heroic/post-heroic ideals of leadership, as well as the distributed model of leadership, are selected as the theoretical framework.

Findings

According to Ukraine’s public managers, the collectivistic ideal of public leadership has persisted. Since 2022 and Russia’s full-scale war, they claim the distributed form of public leadership has developed further. Based on the analysis of the interviews, we suggest these managers differentiated intraorganizational, intergovernmental and intersectoral types of distributed leadership.

Research limitations/implications

The study is conducted during the full-scale war; therefore, observations and field work are restricted. Face-to-face interviews are impeded by air raids: missile and drone attacks; online interviews are sometimes hindered by constant electricity blackouts and alarms. The results of the study reflect the subjectivity of the participants’ thoughts and feelings and may not be more broadly generalizable.

Originality/value

This is an explorative study that shows how public leaders speak and think about public leadership in the ongoing crisis of war.

Details

International Journal of Public Leadership, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2056-4929

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Book part
Publication date: 22 July 2024

J. Sahaya Shabu, E. Joseph Rubert and J. Divya Merry Malar

Event studies have gained lots of popularity and momentum since 1960. It is an effective method to understand the event impact on the variables being tested. This paper aims to…

Abstract

Event studies have gained lots of popularity and momentum since 1960. It is an effective method to understand the event impact on the variables being tested. This paper aims to examine the reaction of Indian stock market to RussoUkrainian Crisis 2022, it is to understand the efficiency of Indian stock market for international events and how information content flow into the market is reflected in the stock prices and how the whole market reacts to the new information. The Event Study methodology is employed in this paper to investigate the effect of an event (RussoUkrainian Crisis) on a specific dependent variable (Stock Prices). The Small, Mid and Large cap indices of the Indian Stock exchange were taken for the Event Study. However, the abnormal return, standard deviation and t-statistics were calculated to examine the event effect on stock prices. It is found that there is a significant negative effect of the event on the stock prices.

Details

Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary India
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80382-752-0

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Book part
Publication date: 28 September 2022

Chi Lo

Abstract

Details

The Digital Renminbi’s Disruption
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80455-330-5

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Article
Publication date: 12 September 2022

Evangelos Vasileiou

This study examines the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on the commodity markets of oil, wheat, and natural gas, in which these two countries play/have a dominant role. The…

317

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on the commodity markets of oil, wheat, and natural gas, in which these two countries play/have a dominant role. The author examines if during these extreme events an anti-leverage effect emerges and indicates the abnormal conditions of the markets.

Design/methodology/approach

The author uses daily returns from the future prices of brent oil, wheat, and natural gas for the period 31.3.2020–31.3.2022 and applies the exponential and the threshold asymmetry GARCH models.

Findings

The empirical findings confirm the existence of anti-leverage effect in the wheat and natural gas commodity markets and point to the existence of the leverage effect in the Brent market.

Practical implications

The existence of the anti-leverage effect means that stock prices and volatility present a positive relationship which is in contrast to the normal/conventional stylized facts which suggest the opposite. These findings could be useful for scholars and practitioners because they enable them to examine market abnormalities using the anti-leverage effect as a criterion and explore its relationship with extreme conditions and strategies that lead to skyrocketing increases in prices.

Originality/value

This study investigates the anti-leverage effect in commodity markets under extreme conditions, which has received little attention in the literature. Moreover, this paper links the existence of the anti-leverage effect with abnormal growth in asset prices, which shows a new direction for the behavior of assets when extreme conditions emerge.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 50 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

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Article
Publication date: 10 January 2025

Nino Tabeshadze, Gerry Larsson, Alicia Ohlsson and Sofia Nilsson

This study is a scoping literature review of research into post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and moral injury (MI) in active-duty military personnel and veterans in Ukraine…

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Abstract

Purpose

This study is a scoping literature review of research into post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and moral injury (MI) in active-duty military personnel and veterans in Ukraine. This study aims to explore the existing research regarding the relationship between PTSD and MI in Ukrainian military personnel to identify the need for future research in a vulnerable social group that is exposed to a high level of conflict.

Design/methodology/approach

This scoping review includes the results of peer-reviewed articles from online databases (PubMed, Science Direct, PsycArticles, Military Database, Sociological Abstract, Psychology Database, PTSD Pubs, Web of Science), which were searched for publications in English, Ukrainian and Russian. The data obtained was organized using Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews extension for scoping reviews and Meta-Analyses, the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme Qualitative Studies Checklist and Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Checklist. Data was analyzed and categorized using an inductive thematic analysis.

Findings

According to the thematic analysis, the following themes were identified in a Ukrainian military context: sources of PTSD, sources of moral injury, symptoms of PTSD, symptoms of moral injury and treating and prevention mechanisms. All studies included in the scoping review (32) report on PTSD and/or MI in military groups in Ukraine. They find the gap in research and in numerous comprehensive studies problematic and underline the need for more effective rehabilitation programs.

Practical implications

A scoping review was conducted to thematically map the research in the area, identify any knowledge gaps deficit about PTSD and MI in Military personnel in Ukraine and contribute to further development of effective rehabilitation programs.

Originality/value

The sparsity of the existing literature highlights the need for further research into enhancing the mental health services provided to military personnel. In addition, there is a growing need to further explore trauma exposure and potentially morally injurious events related to PTSD and MI, in particular. Such a review has not yet been carried out, which adds value to the current paper.

Details

Journal of Criminological Research, Policy and Practice, vol. 11 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2056-3841

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