Modelling, predicting and forecasting commercial rents are now seen as necessary and explicit processes in real estate investment. Decisions on the prospects for specific…
Abstract
Modelling, predicting and forecasting commercial rents are now seen as necessary and explicit processes in real estate investment. Decisions on the prospects for specific investments, the real estate portfolio and multi‐asset portfolio are made as a result of these processes and thus it is the accuracy of these models, predictions and forecasts in capturing future movements in rents that are implicitly tested in the marketplace. Despite the amount of theoretical and empirical research that has been conducted into modelling and predicting rents, it is unusual to find research which explicitly considers the predictive accuracy of models on an ex ante basis. This paper seeks to demonstrate the importance and possible value of such a procedure by examining the predictability of commercial rents in the office, industrial and retail markets of Great Britain over a real estate “cycle”. The paper concludes that theory appears to be a better indicator of the “correct” model structure than maximising historic fit. Often naïve competitors are better predictors than the model selection strategy employed.
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Commercial property is regarded by many as functioning in a relatively inefficient market, so that opportunities exist to earn abnormal gains through the exploitation of…
Abstract
Commercial property is regarded by many as functioning in a relatively inefficient market, so that opportunities exist to earn abnormal gains through the exploitation of information which is not reflected in prices. Property portfolio managers therefore rely to some extent on predictions or forecasts of future commercial property market performance as a tool to aid investment decisions. This paper seeks to conduct an ex post comparative evaluation exercise for “consensus” office rent models in the UK, common explanatory variables being derived from a literature review and from a survey of practitioners’ operational models. Three alternative valuation based rent indices are used as the dependent variables. Models are selected and ranked according to historic fit and used to predict five years ahead given perfect foresight. The paper finds that the best fitting models are not the best predicting models. Generally there is no relationship between the predictive rank of a model and the fit rank of a model
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Paul M. Mitchell and Paul F. McNamara
Forecasts of rental growth are increasingly being required by and provided to property investors by a growing number of suppliers. Reviews the uses to which such forecasts are put…
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Forecasts of rental growth are increasingly being required by and provided to property investors by a growing number of suppliers. Reviews the uses to which such forecasts are put by a major Uk institutional investor and, from a relatively unique vantage point, critically reviews the forecasting services available in the marketplace. In doing so, it identifies the main forecasting approaches adopted, highlights some of the clear inconsistencies between forecasters in terms of what they are forecasting, how they are forecasting and the different data sources they are using. Explains some of the causes for substantial variations observed in the forecasts provided and, finally, explores the potential for systematic forecasting errors. Concludes by emphasizing the need to switch attention from technical methods to improved “view formation”.
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The evidence suggests that the current delivery of primary care to people with a learning disability does not adequately meet their needs. In particular, individuals do not access…
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The evidence suggests that the current delivery of primary care to people with a learning disability does not adequately meet their needs. In particular, individuals do not access adequate health promotion, are not having treatable illnesses identified and are not having more complex needs addressed. This review examines this evidence, highlights barriers to the effective delivery of health care and assesses these barriers, pilot projects and the few intervention studies published. Effective response to health needs will need a change in the working patterns of primary, secondary and social care providers. The contracting system and the move to locality‐based purchasing may be the ideal catalysts for these changes.
Denning, L.J. Diplock and L.J. Russell
July 19, 1966 Master and Servant — Wrongful dismissal — Damages — Service agreement for annual salary and “such bonus (if any) as the directors … shall determine” — Employee not…
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July 19, 1966 Master and Servant — Wrongful dismissal — Damages — Service agreement for annual salary and “such bonus (if any) as the directors … shall determine” — Employee not to invest in competing company without consent of employer — Bonus scheme ended after dismissal of employee — Higher salaries negotiated with employees — Whether future bonus or possible increase in salary to be taken into account — Employee's investment in competitive company — Employment by other company in which employee held shares — Increase in value of shares — Whether credit to be given for increased value of shares and investment in competitive company.
The purpose of this paper to synthesise much of the existing research on autistic spectrum disorder (ASD) and offending behaviour.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper to synthesise much of the existing research on autistic spectrum disorder (ASD) and offending behaviour.
Design/methodology/approach
It considers three key areas, namely, first, a discussion about the nature of ASD and how it might be related to offending behaviour; second, a brief commentary about the prevalence of this population; and, finally, an exploration of the effective management and possible treatment outcomes.
Findings
Methodological limitations have resulted in variable findings which has hindered our understanding of this population. Some of the research is based on small, highly specialist samples making prevalence difficult to measure. The link between ASD and offending is still not well understood, and despite advances in staff training, awareness amongst practitioners remains an underdeveloped area, thus yielding variable treatment outcomes.
Originality/value
This review continues to demonstrate the urgent need for robust research in order to better understand the link between ASD and offending behaviour, to provide tailored, needs-led interventions, and reduce the risk of offending amongst this group as a whole.
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Debbie Spain, Lucy O'Neill, Laura Harwood and Eddie Chaplin
Empirical research indicates that adults who have autism spectrum disorders (ASD) can derive clinically and statistically meaningful benefits from individual and group-based…
Abstract
Purpose
Empirical research indicates that adults who have autism spectrum disorders (ASD) can derive clinically and statistically meaningful benefits from individual and group-based psychological interventions, specifically those which employ skills-based, behavioural, and cognitive techniques. Given the inherent socio-communication, executive functioning, and theory of mind impairments that individuals with ASD can experience, it is deemed necessary to modify the design and delivery of interventions so as to enhance engagement and outcomes. The paper aims to discuss these issues.
Design/methodology/approach
This general review provides a summary of the extant literature and clinical guidelines for the provision of psychological interventions for adults with ASD.
Findings
Adaptations to the structure, process, content, and outcome measurement are outlined. It is likely that optimal treatment gains for adults with ASD are contingent on a prolonged assessment phase, pre-therapy interventions including psycho-education and skills-based interventions, thoughtful regard to the formulation of presenting difficulties, and consideration of, and methods to overcome, the difficulties that may arise when seeking to implement change, identify goals, and manage endings.
Originality/value
This is one of the first reviews to condense the clinical implications for providing psychological interventions for adults with ASD.
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By stepping outside of the consumer socialization model (Ward, 1974) which for many years has resembled a ‘body of verified truths’ when it comes to understanding the complex…
Abstract
Purpose
By stepping outside of the consumer socialization model (Ward, 1974) which for many years has resembled a ‘body of verified truths’ when it comes to understanding the complex intimacy between young consumers’ identities and the marketplace, this research aims to offer a theoretical and empirical reconsideration of the tangible light and shade, indeterminacy and yet ambition in which these young adolescents’ consumption practices and social contexts are inextricably intertwined.
Methodology
Five different data collection methods were employed; namely personal diaries, in-depth interviews (which were conducted at two separate intervals), accompanied shopping trips, e-collages and researcher diaries. Each method was chosen so as to fulfil a specific purpose and reflect a specific angle of repose on the lived experience and consumption practices of a liminar – those at the heart of marketing’s newest strategic boundary.
Findings
This chapter describes some of the constituent elements of metaconsumption; the proposed theorization of the liminars’ consumption practices and a suggested diversion from ‘the effects’ perspective on young consumers’ socialization.
Research implications
This chapter adds to those which problematize the tendency to view young consumers’ interactions with consumption as measurable by having to pass through pre-defined stages if they are to become recognized as complete consumers. Instead this research aligns with the perspective that young consumers, like adults, must mediate the shifting milieus of their social lives through engagement with a myriad consumption practices.
Originality/value
This perspective responds to an acknowledged empirical dearth (e.g. Martens, Southerton, & Scott, 2004). However, secondly in line with Arnould & Thompson’s (2005) original motivation that CCT encapsulate those who see our discipline as ripe with the potential for new theory generation and widespread applicability, this research aligns micro understandings and theorizations of children’s social worlds and consumer culture practices with existing meso- and macro-levels of consumption theory.
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Annette Lawson, Renee Francis, Philippa Russell and Janet Veitch
Governments mediate, through their architecture of machinery and policy, access to rights and, by extension, to services. There is limited but growing recognition in both the UK…
Abstract
Governments mediate, through their architecture of machinery and policy, access to rights and, by extension, to services. There is limited but growing recognition in both the UK and other European governments that individuals' power to negotiate this access is limited by the structural inequality of groups in certain named categories of disadvantage (inter alia, people with disabilities), and they are adapting their machinery to provide the support they require to ‘level the playing field’. However, intersectionality (identities which cut across these recognised categories of disadvantage) prevents those affected from using such mechanisms effectively. Those whose disability impairs their mental awareness and understanding face an additional barrier. The paper explores how this limits the rights of those with both learning disabilities and mental illness, and looks at some of the ways in which this problem is being addressed.
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The Equal Pay Act 1970 (which came into operation on 29 December 1975) provides for an “equality clause” to be written into all contracts of employment. S.1(2) (a) of the 1970 Act…
Abstract
The Equal Pay Act 1970 (which came into operation on 29 December 1975) provides for an “equality clause” to be written into all contracts of employment. S.1(2) (a) of the 1970 Act (which has been amended by the Sex Discrimination Act 1975) provides: