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The purpose of this study is to simulate the climate change impacts on winter wheat production and evaluate the possibilities of using various varieties and shifting planting date as two climate change adaptation strategies in Kerman Province, Iran.

Two types of global circulation model and three scenarios for three periods were used. Daily climatic parameters were generated by LARS-WG (Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator). The CERES-wheat model was used to simulate future winter wheat growth, development and production.

The results showed that CO₂ had no effect on the phenology of winter wheat, and the negative impact of temperature on the grain yield was higher than the positive effect of CO₂ enrichment. The length of the reproductive growth period of the winter wheat was significantly shortened as affected by the negative impacts of rise in temperature. The simulated results indicated that the grain yield of common (medium maturing) variety of winter wheat will decline, ranging from −0.27 to −18.71 per cent according to future climate changes. Adaptation strategies showed that the early maturing variety had a higher and more stable grain yield under climate change conditions than medium and delayed maturing varieties. Earlier planting date (20 October) increased wheat grain yield under future climatic conditions than common (November 5) planting date. In reverse, later planting (November 20) would accelerate harmful effects of climate change on wheat grain yield.

The results highlighted the potential of early maturing variety and early planting date as the appropriate agronomical approaches for mitigating harmful impacts of climate change on winter wheat production in arid regions.