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Lightweight building systems have emerged as alternatives to reduce the high environmental impact of conventional masonry. However, in subtropical climates, the low thermal inertia of lightweight envelopes negatively affects energy performance. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the thermophysical parameters that influence heating and cooling energy consumption in lightweight residential buildings under subtropical climates and develop a model to predict these parameters using statistical and machine learning tools.

A database was created with computer simulation data on the energy performance of 2048 building conditions generated by factorial combination of 10 parameters. Sensitivity analysis was performed to identify which parameters contribute most to energy performance indicators. Subsequently, decision trees were created using a classification and regression tree (CART) algorithm to visualize parameters and improve energy performance indicators, particularly cooling energy consumption.

Low thermal transmittance and ground contact are interesting strategies for low thermal capacity buildings. Furthermore, the findings showed that relying only on the most influential properties does not ensure good energy performance; rather, it is the adequate combination of envelope properties that leads to good energy efficiency. The tree developed by CART can be used as a guide to assist designers and researchers in the initial selection of building envelopes, demonstrating the impact of each choice on electrical energy consumption for indoor climate control.

By adopting a global approach to assess the thermal performance of lightweight buildings, this study makes a significant contribution to synthesizing the results of a complex and time-consuming methodology into a guide for optimizing envelope design decisions and directing efforts and resources toward efficient strategies.