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This paper aims to formalize long-term trajectories of human civilization as a scientific and ethical field of study. The long-term trajectory of human civilization can be defined as the path that human civilization takes during the entire future time period in which human civilization could continue to exist.

This paper focuses on four types of trajectories: status quo trajectories, in which human civilization persists in a state broadly similar to its current state into the distant future; catastrophe trajectories, in which one or more events cause significant harm to human civilization; technological transformation trajectories, in which radical technological breakthroughs put human civilization on a fundamentally different course; and astronomical trajectories, in which human civilization expands beyond its home planet and into the accessible portions of the cosmos.

Status quo trajectories appear unlikely to persist into the distant future, especially in light of long-term astronomical processes. Several catastrophe, technological transformation and astronomical trajectories appear possible.

Some current actions may be able to affect the long-term trajectory. Whether these actions should be pursued depends on a mix of empirical and ethical factors. For some ethical frameworks, these actions may be especially important to pursue.

The purpose of this paper is to subject the short lived “Policy Analysis Market” (PAM) – “a Pentagon betting market on terror attacks” – and media and academic reactions to it, to some critical analysis.

The paper engages sustained invocation of the relationship between simulation and representation, for the story of the Policy Analysis Market (PAM) and its demise is replete with the tension between the two. It interrogates a range of accounts of the (un)timely demise of PAM, from the fearful senators and the moralistic media who subsumed and buttressed their position to the market evangelists for whom the failure of this particular market was merely proof of the veracity of markets elsewhere.

It is found that, inter alia, PAM was not really market‐like enough and, indeed, that it duplicated in impoverished form already existing markets that pertain to its objects of interest; that it was too much a market, given that its “goods” are seemingly inappropriate for market trade; and that it exposed too much of the truth of the actual operation of existing markets via the difficulties it confronted with regard to the possibility of insider dealing.

By contextualising PAM within the so‐called war on terror of which it was part, we see in the tension between representation and simulation, tension between a singular and a manifold reality; a set of tensions which make clear the extent of the gap that must exist between cause and effect, truth and prediction. The paper concludes by joining the celebration of PAM's demise whilst yearning for a similar fate to befall the other monologues that brought it to silence.

The purpose of this paper is to determine how kitting, compared to continuous supply, affects the time spent by the assembler fetching parts in manual assembly.

The paper is based on an experimental setup at the Saab Automobile assembly plant in Trollhättan, Sweden. Experienced assemblers were studied as they performed the same assembly operations in ten different configurations. Each configuration consisted of a different arrangement in terms of how parts were presented. The use of kits to present parts was compared to parts presentation through continuous supply, where each part number was presented in a separate container.

The time for fetching parts is significantly shorter when parts are presented through kitting instead of through continuous supply. Furthermore, the shorter fetching time is not just related to a shorter distance between assembly object and parts presentation, which can often be achieved through kitting. The reduction of time spent searching for parts is also considerable.

The results of the paper provide valuable input in the design of assembly and materials supply systems, as they enable a better understanding of the relative performance of the materials feeding principles of kitting and continuous supply.

Previous studies of kitting and its impact on assembly are mostly conceptual or qualitative, whereas quantitative studies are scarce. The current paper provides a substantial contribution by quantifying the effects that kitting, compared to continuous supply, has on the time spent fetching parts.

The purpose of this paper is to briefly explore some recent curious interlocking of the ideology of markets and the practice of policy.

This particular discursive combine has most visibly been apparent in the concatenated birth and death of the US Defense Department's so‐called “Policy Analysis Market” (PAM). Yet PAM is but the most notorious example of a more sustained and pervasive attempt to use the technologies and disciplines of markets to render policy both better informed and more amenable to control through robust and seemingly incontestable systems of accountability. Given its prominence, our way in is through a brief description of PAM's origins and demise.

It is found that PAM and its similar brethren of markets for use in policy formation and judgement are less concerned with the capture of reality and more with the disciplining power of a curious “objectivity”.

Projects such as PAM are thus not easily challengeable on grounds of their veracity. Rather research that seeks to interrogate the use of market technologies in policy must look to their context and effects.

The purpose of this paper is to determine whether man-hour efficiency of picking is affected by the use of batch preparation, compared to preparation of one kit at a time. This paper focuses on small kit preparation areas.

This paper is based on two experiments that were performed at a vehicle assembly plant and then analysed quantitatively.

The results provide a strong indication of the advantages associated with batch preparation, in terms of man-hour efficiency.

The fact that the effects identified during the experiments are substantial, over 20 per cent reduction of average time per picked component in Experiment 1 and 7 per cent in Experiment 2, indicates that the option of batch picking holds potentials for large cost reduction and should be considered when kit preparation systems are designed.

Limited research has dealt with the design of kit preparation systems, thus leaving considerable knowledge gaps. Previous research dealing with batch picking focuses on other environments than kitting and on large picking areas where batching can reduce walking distances. In contrast, the current paper focuses on small picking areas, which are common in industrial kitting applications. This paper provides a considerable contribution by demonstrating improvements in time efficiency that batch preparation can offer to small picking areas in addition to larger areas. The discussion also provides a basis for future research, which could focus on aspects other than time efficiency, such as the quality of kit preparation, and variables that might moderate the effect of batching.

“Minomi” is a unit load where no container is used. The aim of this paper is to identify the effects of using minomi in the materials supply within an assembly plant.

Based on three case studies within the body shop of Saab Automobile in Trollhättan, Sweden, effects of using minomi are identified. Furthermore, relations are identified between these effects and the different characteristics of each case.

The paper identifies both benefits and drawbacks of using minomi and relates these benefits and drawbacks to different part characteristics, characteristics of the receiving assembly station, and characteristics of handling and storage. Among the benefits is that minomi is associated with space efficient presentation of parts. This can enable the presentation of a large number of part variants and also result in time efficient parts picking in the receiving assembly operations.

Through the knowledge gained in the case studies, the potential benefits associated with minomi are more likely to be realised within industry.

The paper provides insight into the concept of minomi, which has previously received very little attention in research literature, but which can offer substantial benefits within industry if used under the right conditions.

Organisations and systems of care working within both specific and non-specific trauma-informed approaches must adapt a multicultural lens, in design, delivery and evaluation of services and interventions. Cultural and social factors can directly influence the exposure of individuals to traumatic events (Roberts, Austin, Corliss, Vandermorris, & Koenen, 2010). At the same time, social and cultural identities influence the development and experience of trauma and symptoms, including treatment outcomes (Marsella, 2010; Wilson, 2007). In this chapter, Ravind Jeawon and I provide some of the essential factors that trauma-responsive systems may wish to consider. The first part of this chapter deals with the idea of multicultural identities and practices and highlights some of the outcomes associated with accessing behavioural healthcare. The impact of intersectionality and microaggression on those from diverse backgrounds is also considered. Finally, a guiding framework is provided that examines what needs to be implemented across organisations in order to provide the system with a multicultural lens in which to view and deliver appropriate services. Crucially, multicultural responsiveness will not come from tick box training regimes, it is something that needs to be kept on the agenda and is a lifelong trajectory.

The great filter and an unfriendly artificial general intelligence might pose existential risks to humanity, but these two risks are anti-correlated. The purpose of this paper is to consider the implications of having evidence that mankind is at significant peril from both these risks.

This paper creates Bayesian models under which one might get evidence for being at risk for two perils when we know that we are at risk for at most one of these perils.

Humanity should possibly be more optimistic about its long-term survival if we have convincing evidence for believing that both these risks are real than if we have such evidence for thinking that only one of these perils would likely strike us.

Deriving implications of being greatly concerned about both an unfriendly artificial general intelligence and the great filter.