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This study aims to investigate whether quality of governance (QoG), trustworthiness and confidence impacted bank credit growth in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). In addition, it examined whether credit growth differed between Islamic and conventional banks in GCC countries.

Using data from 104 (56 conventional banks and 48 Islamic banks) banks located in GCC countries from 2012 to 2019, the two-step system generalized method of moments estimator was used to analyse the data.

Evidence was found of the influence of trust in institutions in boosting credit growth. The QoG generally expanded credit growth which instilled confidence in the economy and the banking sector. Credit growth was more pronounced for Islamic banks. This paper has contributed to the literature evaluating the determinants of credit growth in GCC.

This paper has been one of the few studies exploring the effect of trustworthiness and confidence (informal institutions) and macro governance (formal institutions) in GCC. GCC is different from other regions, as it is oil-dependent and shares similar legal, social and cultural aspects. This suggested that these might yield different results than expected.

This study examined the impact of; COVID-19 investor sentiment, COVID-19 cases, geopolitical risk (GPR), economic policy uncertainty (EPU), oil returns and Islamic banking on bank stock returns. In addition, it examined whether Islamic bank stock returns differed from conventional banks when interacting with selected variables.

This study consisted of 137 conventional and Islamic stock market listed banks in 16 Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries from February 2020 to July 2021. Monthly data were used for bank stock returns, number of COVID-19 cases, COVID-19 investor sentiment, oil price and EPU, while GPR data were obtained annually. This paper used unconditional quantile regression (UQR) in its analysis.

COVID-19 investor sentiment and EPU negatively influenced bank stock returns. However, oil returns were only positive and significant in first quantile. Conversely, GPR negatively impacted bank returns up to the median quantile, while the impact was positive in upper quantiles. Islamic banks outperformed conventional banks in all quantiles. Additionally, GPR negatively influenced Islamic bank returns up to 75th quantile, while oil returns negatively impacted Islamic bank returns up to 95th quantile. Ultimately, COVID-19 investor sentiment and EPU positively influenced Islamic bank returns up to 95th quantile.

Market conditions must be considered when implementing investment decisions and policies, as the effects of market shocks are mostly asymmetrical. For example, it is important for international investors to take into consideration asymmetric factors, such as market uncertainty in oil market. Especially in bearish Islamic markets, bad news concerning uncertainty can be perceived as riskier than good news.

A change in health sentiment, such as COVID-19 cases and COVID-19 investor sentiment, can be used to determine future direction of conventional and Islamic stock markets. Asymmetric effects associated with market news can make portfolio management more effective. COVID-19 investor sentiment states can be used to predict Islamic market index dynamics in MENA region.

This paper offered insight into heterogeneity of market conditions and dependencies of Islamic banks' stock market returns on COVID-19 investor sentiment and uncertainty, among others that should be considered when implementing investment decisions and policies.