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1 – 2 of 2Amritkant Mishra, Ajit Kumar Dash and Purna Chandra Padhan
This pragmatic investigation examines the dynamic nexus between crude oil prices and food inflation from South and Southeast Asian perspectives.
Abstract
Purpose
This pragmatic investigation examines the dynamic nexus between crude oil prices and food inflation from South and Southeast Asian perspectives.
Design/methodology/approach
This study investigates the asymmetric effects of global crude oil prices on food inflation using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model with monthly data covering the period from May 2012 to April 2022.
Findings
The empirical evidence reveals that international crude oil has a substantial impact on food prices in the majority of countries. Additionally, the relevant outcome documents that the asymmetric effect of global crude oil on food inflation applies to Sri Lanka and Vietnam, while in the other countries, it is symmetric.
Research limitations/implications
Considering the optimistic outcomes, this empirical investigation is certain to have important shortcomings. Initially, the conclusions drawn from the above findings were based only on detailed assessments of the aforementioned variables' data over a 10-year period. The current scholarly analysis investigates the existence of an asymmetric impact of crude oil on food inflation, limited to six Asian countries. On the other hand, considering a greater number of Asian economies could enhance the analysis’s robustness and precision.
Originality/value
The current research aims to contribute to the existing literature on food inflation and global oil prices in the following ways: First, this study investigates the nexus between global crude oil and food inflation in a novel way, considering the nonlinear relationship between the variables. To figure out the nonlinear relationship or uneven effect of the global oil shock on food prices, we use the nonlinear ARDL model. Secondly, as food inflation is one of the major issues for the South and Southeast Asian economies, this empirical investigation broadens the analysis by incorporating a perspective from South and Southeast Asia, an area largely overlooked by previous researchers. Finally, we are very optimistic about the phenomenal contribution of current analysis to comprehending the conception of oil and food price dynamics from a broader perspective to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG), which aims for a sustainable resolution to end hunger in all its forms by 2030 and to accomplish food security, especially in emerging economies.
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Keywords
An understanding on the linkages between financial development and economic growth in general and the stock market with economic activity in particular is imperative in emerging…
Abstract
Purpose
An understanding on the linkages between financial development and economic growth in general and the stock market with economic activity in particular is imperative in emerging economies. The objective of this paper is to find out the causal linkages between stock market and economic activity in India.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper applies recently developed Granger non‐causality tests by Toda‐Yamamota, Dolado and Lutkephol (popularly known as the TYDL model) for an empirical exercise.
Findings
The notable finding of the paper is that both the stock price (BSE Sensex) and economic activity (IIP) are integrated of order one, i.e. I (1). The Johansen‐Juselius co‐integration tests suggest the existence of one co‐integrating vector. This rules out spurious relations and suggests the presence of at least one direction of causality. The TYDL model suggests that there is bi‐directional causality between stock price and economic activity during the post‐liberalization period, implying that a well‐developed stock market could enhance economic activity and vice‐versa.
Research limitations/implications
In the broader framework of financial markets, the presence and role of the stock market is minuscule in the context of India. Despite this, it could play a considerable role in the process of the economic development of the country. However, to analyze the cause and effect relationship between stock market and economic activity, it is essential to analyze the issue in greater detail and depth. The main limitation of the paper is the use of IIP as a proxy for economic activity, which neglects the agricultural sector, being the primary sector in India and also the service sector. This is of course due to the non‐availability of GDP data on a monthly basis. Further, a detailed study on the issue could be highly appreciable from the perspective of policy implications.
Originality/value
The findings of the paper have some valuable implications. It could give some insight for policy makers about the possible linkages between stock market and the economy. Coming to empirical parts, this is perhaps the first paper in the context of India to apply the TYDL model to examine the relationship between stock price and economic activity.
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