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The purpose of this paper is to estimate the changes of dental caries status among Thai adults and elderly under the different policy options using system dynamics modeling.

A multi-sector system dynamics model was developed to capture the dynamic interrelationship between dental caries status changes and oral health behavior – including self-care, dental care utilization and sugar consumption. Data used to populate the model was obtained from the Thai national oral health survey in 2000, 2006, 2012 and Thailand Official Statistics Registration. Three policy scenarios were experimented in the model: health promotion policy, dental personnel policy and affordable dental care service policy.

Dental caries experiences among Thai adults and elderly were projected to increase from now to 2040, as the elderly population increases. Among all policies experimented herein, the combined policies of health promotion, increased affordability and capacity of dental health service were found to produce the highest improvement in dental caries status with 3.7 percent reduction of population with high decayed, missing and filled teeth (DMFT) and 5.2 percent increase in population with very low DMFT.

This study is the first comprehensive simulation model that attempts to explore the dynamic interrelationship among dental caries experiences and behavioral factors that impact on oral health outcomes. In addition, the simulation model herein offers a framework for policy experimentation that provides policymakers with additional insights to inform health policy planning.

The number of older adults in Thailand is currently increasing. To create the appropriate oral health service for this age group requires an understanding of the factors that are associated with their dental service utilization. This study aimed to determine the associations between social backgrounds, oral behaviors and dental service utilization among Thai older adults.

This was a cross-sectional study on a representative sample of older adults in the 8th Thai National Oral Health Survey (TNOHS). Data of 4,130 Thai older adults were collected through interviews. The association between social backgrounds, oral behaviors and dental service utilization were investigated using chi-square and logistic regression models.

Of the older adults aged 60–74 years old, 38.4% had used dental services in the last 12 months. Smokers used dental services the least (32.1%). Location, income, education and social welfare were significantly associated with dental service utilization. Among the oral behaviors evaluated, smoking was significantly associated with low dental service utilization.

Thai older adults with a poor social background including location, income, education, entitlement to the Universal Coverage Scheme (UCS) and smoking made less use of dental services.