Jonathan A. Batten, Igor Loncarski and Peter G. Szilagyi
We compare the aggregated international assets and liabilities of banks that report to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) to establish their gross and net international…
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We compare the aggregated international assets and liabilities of banks that report to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) to establish their gross and net international exposures during recent episodes of financial crisis. Initially we consider these positions worldwide and then focus on the cross-border flows within Europe, considered in terms of core and peripheral countries. These gross and net asset–liability positions are both time-varying and respond to crisis periods, through better matching of international assets and liabilities as well as the realignment of asset positions to reduce balance sheet risks. These conclusions are consistent with other studies that utilise international banking flow data, while the European experience highlights the diversity of international position taking. This is due to the complexity of managing risks within the eurozone (EZ) and peripheral countries, and those emerging European countries that retain legacy currencies.
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In the past decade, academic research has been awash with proposals on how Japan should reform, redesign and administer its bank-based financial system (Schinasi & Smith, 1998;…
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In the past decade, academic research has been awash with proposals on how Japan should reform, redesign and administer its bank-based financial system (Schinasi & Smith, 1998; Kuratani & Endo, 2000; Hattori, Koyama, & Yonetani, 2001; Rhee, 2001; Baba & Hisada, 2002; Batten & Szilagyi, 2003). Until the late 1980s, this unique regime, involving banks having cross-ownership with industry, was a driving force behind Japan's post-war economic miracle. However, the burst of the asset bubble, and the subsequent prolonged ailing of both the banking sector and the economy as a whole suggests that during the bubble period, the monitoring effectiveness of banks was compromised by a lack of independence from industry and the absence of external discipline. This banking crisis ultimately impaired the corporate sector's fund-raising ability, while trapping excess liquidity in the financial system through a lack of attractive investment choice afforded to risk-averse Japanese investors.
Jonathan A. Batten and Peter G. Szilagyi
Emerging financial markets have largely proven resilient to the consequences of the Global Financial Crisis. While this owes much to the bitter experience and economic strategies…
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Emerging financial markets have largely proven resilient to the consequences of the Global Financial Crisis. While this owes much to the bitter experience and economic strategies developed and implemented following the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997–1998, providence also played a hand in that relatively few of its financial institutions were exposed to the complex structured products that underpinned the demise of many financial intermediaries in the United States and Europe. The objective of this volume is to investigate and assess the impact and response to the crisis in emerging markets from a number of perspectives. These include asset pricing, contagion, financial intermediation, market structure and regulation. Our hope is that the assembled chapters offer clear insights into the complex financial arrangements that now link emerging and developed financial markets in the current economic environment. The volume spans four dimensions: first, a series of background studies offer explanations of the causes and impacts of the crisis on emerging markets more generally; then, implications are considered. The third and final sections provide insights from regional and country-specific perspectives.
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Carlo Gola and Francesco Spadafora
The global financial crisis has magnified the role of Financial Sector Surveillance (FSS) in the International Monetary Fund's activities. This chapter surveys the various steps…
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The global financial crisis has magnified the role of Financial Sector Surveillance (FSS) in the International Monetary Fund's activities. This chapter surveys the various steps and initiatives through which the Fund has increasingly deepened its involvement in FSS. Overall, this process can be characterised by a preliminary stage and two main phases. The preliminary stage dates back to the 1980s and early 1990s, and was mainly related to the Fund's research and technical assistance activities within the process of monetary and financial deregulation embraced by several member countries. The first ‘official’ phase of the Fund's involvement in FSS started in the aftermath of the Mexican crisis, and relates to the international call to include financial sector issues among the core areas of Fund surveillance. The second phase focuses on the objectives of bringing the coverage of financial sector issues ‘up-to-par’ with the coverage of other traditional core areas of surveillance, and of integrating financial analysis into the Fund's analytical macroeconomic framework. By urging the Fund to give greater attention to its member countries' financial systems, the international community's response to the global crisis may mark the beginning of a new phase of FSS. The Fund's financial sector surveillance, particularly on advanced economies, is of paramount importance for emerging market and developing countries, as they are vulnerable to spillover effects from crises originated in advanced economies. Emerging market and developing economies, which constitute the majority of the Fund's 187 members, are currently the recipients of over 50 programmes of financial support from the Fund (including those of a precautionary nature), totalling over $250 billion.
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Willi Semmler and Aleksandr V. Gevorkyan
Emerging markets are said to have sustained relatively well in the recent global crisis. There are several factors that help explain this popular view, such as, for example…
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Emerging markets are said to have sustained relatively well in the recent global crisis. There are several factors that help explain this popular view, such as, for example, perceived separation from key international financial centres. Still a lot is to be digested in the crisis aftermath with immediate implications for financial markets and real economy. This chapter offers a unique insight into dynamics within transition economies via an extended blended fiscal–monetary policy rules model with possibility of foreign reserves targeting and foreign currency-denominated debt dynamics. Calibration is based on actual data and is done under various targets and financial risk conditions. Prudent monetary policy and fiscal policy initiatives within current context drive the choice of targets. That may help dampen negative impacts of the crisis and thwart potential currency run. This chapter advances three possible post-crisis scenarios, each with unique solution for reserves, exchange rate, sustainable debt and output levels. Categorizing between net exporters and net importers based on countries' external positions, group-specific results are derived. While both groups are susceptible to exchange-rate risk affected by a multitude of shocks due to their fragile financial system, net importers risk high inflation, but net exporters over-borrowing. This chapter contributes to the literature on global financial crisis, macroeconomic policy, and role of nominal targets and foreign reserves in emerging markets.