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1 – 5 of 5An account is given of futures research as a scientifically oriented field of knowledge. Its specific contemporary task as a study of transient change of the human society is…
Abstract
An account is given of futures research as a scientifically oriented field of knowledge. Its specific contemporary task as a study of transient change of the human society is described and the futures research approach is outlined. A generalization of the concept of knowledge of the standard sciences is presented as a sine qua non to futurology. The relationship between knowledge and information is elaborated and clarified, which makes it possible to better understand the present era as an information age.
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Pentti Malaska and Karin Holstius
This article describes a futures‐oriented leadership process called visionary management as developed in the Finland Futures Research Centre and implemented successfully with…
Abstract
This article describes a futures‐oriented leadership process called visionary management as developed in the Finland Futures Research Centre and implemented successfully with several medium‐sized companies in the 1990s. It is regarded as an addition to advanced management processes aimed at making good business decisions. The aim of the process is to create new business ideas for the company in the form of a vision. The visionary process enriches the strategic management of the company by motivating key people to work jointly as a creative team for longer‐term success. It starts from finding a common understanding of the future business situation, and discovers the resources and options available to the company. It ends up with a vision, a synthesis of the common understanding of success and the will to accomplish it. Tools and approaches applied in this communication process are presented. Inside the company the vision becomes an empowering means for directing the future course of the company, and it is an effective way to communicate the aims of the company and attract external interest and support. The examples in the article represent real cases with the kind permission of the companies involved.
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Guus Berkhout, Patrick van der Duin, Dap Hartmann and Roland Ortt
The duration of an innovation process, from new idea to new business, may take many years. This makes it necessary to incorporate a vision of the future. The Cyclic Innovation…
Abstract
The duration of an innovation process, from new idea to new business, may take many years. This makes it necessary to incorporate a vision of the future. The Cyclic Innovation Model (CIM) shows that aspects such as multiplicity (looking at multi-fold futures) and multidimensionality (looking at different aspects of the future) should be taken into account. Looking at the different actors involved in CIM, the future should be researched with an open mind (meaning that the transition path to the future should be kept wide open) and different time horizons should be taken into account.
This article discusses prospects of strengthening new increasingly global economic activities and environmental governance by focusing on the institutional relationship between…
Abstract
This article discusses prospects of strengthening new increasingly global economic activities and environmental governance by focusing on the institutional relationship between information society policy issues and environmental policy issues. These two sets of issues have some common denominators insofar as they are both comprehensive and go beyond traditional sector policy rationalities, as illustrated by the notions of “sustainable development” and “ecological modernization” in the case of environmental issues, and neither can avoid the problem of governance subjects such as social legitimacy and institutional dynamics between the main actors. The article also identifies a more functional relationship between these issues and discusses challenges common to both as well as asking whether there is institutional potential and capacity to find “synergy” by integrating environmental policy elements into moves towards information society and vice versa. The case study of Finland reveals that information society strategy lacks environmental policy objectives and discusses the factors behind this failure. The lack of integration of different policy areas is an issue of organizational power with policy actors showing no real interest in radically changing prevailing bureaucratic institutions and socioeconomic structures. Beyond organizational factors the policy problems seem to be based on the inconsistency of different policy rationalities with information society reasoning being justified by economic‐technical rationality whereas environmental policies are justified by natural scientific rationality, which policy makers do not consider to be in their interests. The article concludes with the assertion that the principles of ecological modernization could potentially unite environmental policies and positive environmental aspects of information society policies.
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The aim of the project on which this paper is based is to clarify – using Kondratieff theory of long-term socio-economic cycles – how the next (sixth) wave will look like. The…
Abstract
Purpose
The aim of the project on which this paper is based is to clarify – using Kondratieff theory of long-term socio-economic cycles – how the next (sixth) wave will look like. The focus lies in the socio-political aspect of change.
Design/methodology/approach
The article is a short and partial summary of a major project called “The Sixth Wave”. Workshops and surveys have been run in Finland and in Silicon Valley, California.
Findings
The project coordinators have been testing the theory of Kondratieff waves with various methods and have found it to be a convincing way to identify the patterns of change. It really brings in anticipatory power to its users.
Research limitations/implications
There are lots of interesting implications of using K-Wave as a framework to understand next decades. More research regarding the future technologies in the K-Wave context should be undertaken.
Practical implications
The author believes that the K-Wave framework can be also regarded as anticipatory tool for business. The heavy emphasis in the author’s K-wave theory on resource productivity as a technology driver for the next wave makes it obvious that all technologies and businesses that aim at performing with greater output with less material or energy input are regarded as winners of their respective schemes in the emerging wave as the demand for these services will rise dramatically.
Social implications
The author hopes the article will help people understand how fundamental the change K-Wave engenders in terms of democracy and trust, and that the article will also provide a more comprehensive view towards the transformation we are experiencing. The author anticipates that the idea of corporate social responsibility will become much more compelling in the sixth wave framework.
Originality/value
The project coordinators have given a whole new interpretation to the Kondratieff theory. They approach the theory with social science framework rather than customary economic framework, and have also tested their model with the project’s industrial partners.
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