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Article
Publication date: 1 October 2003

Peter Mederly, Pavel Novacek and Jan Topercer

Gross domestic product as an indicator of wealth and therefore quality of life have long been criticised. GDP places too much emphasis on consumption and ignores wealth…

1629

Abstract

Gross domestic product as an indicator of wealth and therefore quality of life have long been criticised. GDP places too much emphasis on consumption and ignores wealth distribution. Importantly it also takes no account of environmental issues. This article considers the development of an integrated environmental sustainability index and its application in the case of the Czech Republic.

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Foresight, vol. 5 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 1 June 2000

Pavel Novacek

This article summarizes the main findings of the study entitled Strategy for Sustainable Development of the Czech Republic. Using the methodology of National 21st Century Studies…

261

Abstract

This article summarizes the main findings of the study entitled Strategy for Sustainable Development of the Czech Republic. Using the methodology of National 21st Century Studies, the study analyses conditions under which particular positive or negative phenomena could appear and identifies key factors for a desirable future, which is understood to mean sustainable development. Four alternative scenarios outline possible current and future trends: a classical monetary market economy, Keynesian monetary market economy, sustainable development scenario and wild card scenario. Human values are considered to be the most important factor in the sustainable development scenario and values compatible and incompatible with sustainable living are briefly discussed in the article.

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Foresight, vol. 2 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 27 February 2007

Pavel Nováček, Peter Mederly, Pierre C. Armand and Irena Skácelová

The purpose of the study is to formulate future‐oriented vision of development for Haiti, the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere.

1155

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the study is to formulate future‐oriented vision of development for Haiti, the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere.

Design/methodology/approach

SWOT analysis, development indicators and alternative scenarios have been used in the study.

Findings

The paper reveals the construction of the Quality and Sustainability of Life Index for Haiti and normative proposals for future‐oriented development for Haiti.

Practical implications

This study can be used by governmental institutions in Haiti as well as by nongovernmental development organizations.

Originality/value

According to the authors' knowledge such future‐oriented study has not been done yet for Haiti; methodologically new is construction of Quality and Sustainability of Life Index for Haiti.

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Foresight, vol. 9 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 16 September 2013

Pavel Novácek

The aim of this paper is to discuss key factors of long-term (sustainable) development and prosperity. There are three basic guidelines that seek explanation: dependence theory

651

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this paper is to discuss key factors of long-term (sustainable) development and prosperity. There are three basic guidelines that seek explanation: dependence theory, the influence of geographical and environmental factors and cultural determinism. But there are perhaps three other important factors for successful development: education, caring for public space and future oriented thinking.

Design/methodology/approach

Why are some nations poor and some are rich? The answer might lie somewhere else other than in the known theories of development. Or rather, maybe every development theory has some truth in itself, but what we need is to create some inventive synthesis. To formulate such synthesis, calculation of future oriented thinking index can help us to understand better why some communities and nations are poor and some are rich. Perhaps future oriented thinking is the main key to prosperity and success.

Findings

If future oriented thinking is an important factor to prosperity and success, then an instrument is needed to measure it – the Future Oriented Thinking Index (FOTI). Future Oriented Thinking Index is by methodological approach close to the State of the Future Index (SOFI) developed by Theodore J. Gordon and the Millennium Project. But FOTI should focus more on identifying how people are able to take into account future challenges and behave according to them, less on “state of the future“ (measuring whether a situation will improve or deteriorate). Tentatively 23 indicators are proposed to calculate FOTI.

Originality/value

Many economists, environmentalists and other experts have long been cooperating in designing an alternative indicator to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) capable of better capturing the long-term development of society and not just economic performance in a narrow sense. Future Oriented Thinking Index calculated for individual countries as an arithmetical average of 23 selected variables (individual indicators, all available from publicly accessible sources) is a new approach to complement such indexes as the Gross Domestic Product, the Human Development Index, the Environmental Sustainability Index, or the State of the Future Index.

Details

Foresight, vol. 15 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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