Kerry Anne Bodle, Patti J. Cybinski and Reza Monem
The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS)-based data improve bankruptcy prediction over Australian Generally Accepted…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS)-based data improve bankruptcy prediction over Australian Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (AGAAP)-based data. In doing so, this paper focuses on intangibles because conservative accounting rules for intangibles under IFRS required managers to write off substantial amounts of intangibles previously capitalized and revalued upwards under AGAAP. The focus on intangibles is also motivated by empirical evidence that financially distressed firms are more likely to voluntarily capitalize and make upward revaluations of intangibles compared with healthy firms.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper analyses a sample of 46 bankrupt firms and 46 non-bankrupt (healthy) firms using a matched-pair design over the period 1991 to 2004. The authors match control firms on fiscal year, size (total assets), Global Industry Classification Standard-based industry membership and principal activities. Using Altman’s (1968) model, this paper compares the bankruptcy prediction results between bankrupt and non-bankrupt firms for up to five years before bankruptcy. In the tests, the authors use financial statements as reported under AGAAP and two IFRS-based data sets. The IFRS-based datasets are created by considering the adjustments on the AGAAP data required to implement the requirements of IAS 38, IFRS 3 and IAS 36.
Findings
This paper finds that, under IFRS, Altman’s (1968) model consistently predicts bankruptcy for bankrupt firms more accurately than under AGAAP for all of the five years prior to bankruptcy. This greater prediction accuracy emanates from smaller values of the inputs to Altman’s model due to conservative accounting rules for intangibles under IFRS. However, this greater accuracy in bankruptcy prediction comes with larger Type II errors for healthy firms. Overall, the results provide evidence that the switch from AGAAP to IFRS improves the quality of information contained in the financial statements for predicting bankruptcy.
Research limitations/implications
Small sample size and having data available over the required period may limit generalizability of findings.
Originality/value
Although bankruptcy prediction is one of the primary uses of accounting information, the burgeoning literature on the benefits of IFRS adoption has so far neglected the role of IFRS data in bankruptcy prediction. Thus, this paper documents a new benefit of IFRS adoption. In this paper, the authors demonstrate how the restrictions on the ability to capitalize and revalue intangibles enhance the quality of information used to predict bankruptcy. These results provide evidence to international standard setters of what they can expect if their efforts to remove non-restrictive accounting practices for intangibles are abandoned.
Details
Keywords
Patti Cybinski and Carolyn Windsor
Conflicting results have emerged from several past studies as to whether bankruptcy prediction models are able to forecast corporate failure more accurately than auditors’…
Abstract
Conflicting results have emerged from several past studies as to whether bankruptcy prediction models are able to forecast corporate failure more accurately than auditors’ going‐concern opinions. Nevertheless, the last decade has seen improved modelling of the path‐to‐failure of financially distressed firms over earlier static models of bankruptcy. In the light of the current crisis facing the auditing profession, this study evaluates the efficacy of auditors’ going‐concern opinions in comparison to two bankruptcy prediction models. Bankrupt firms in the U.S. service and trade industry sectors were used to compare model predictions against the auditors’ going‐concern opinion for two years prior to firm failure. The two models are the well‐known Altman (1968) Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) model that includes only financial ratio variables in its formulation and the newer, temporal logit model of Cybinski (2000, 2003) that includes explicit factors of the business cycles in addition to variables internal to the firm. The results show overall better bankruptcy classification rates for the temporal model than for the Altman model or audit opinion.
Details
Keywords
This paper describes a number of models used in bankruptcy studies to date. They arise from two basic model designs used in studies of financial distress: cross-sectional studies…
Abstract
This paper describes a number of models used in bankruptcy studies to date. They arise from two basic model designs used in studies of financial distress: cross-sectional studies that compare healthy and distressed firms, and time-series formulations that study the path to failure of (usually) distressed firms only. These two designs inherently foster different research objectives. Different instances of the most recent work taken from each of the above research groups, broadly categorized by design, are described here including new work by this author. It is argued that those that investigate the distress continuum with predominantly explanatory objectives are superior on a number of criteria to the studies that follow what is essentially a case-control structure and espouse prediction as their objective.
Details
Keywords
Nerina Vecchio, Patti Cybinski and Stella Stevens
The perception among carers and health professionals is that the health care system remains limited in its effectiveness and accessibility to non‐institutionalized people with a…
Abstract
Purpose
The perception among carers and health professionals is that the health care system remains limited in its effectiveness and accessibility to non‐institutionalized people with a mental illness. The purpose of this paper is to determine the effect of the care recipient's main disabling condition (either physical or mental) on the carer's perceived need for assistance in their role as carer.
Design/methodology/approach
Based on the data collected from the Australian Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers, the investigation involves the non‐institutionalized recipients of care with profound and severe disabilities, aged 15 years and over, residing in private dwellings and their primary informal carers.
Findings
Regression analysis reveals that carers of those with a mental disability are 2.7 times more likely to report care needs unmet compared to carers of those with a physical disability. Further analysis using interactions shows that carers who are the adult children of mentally disabled parents report a comparatively very large amount of perceived unmet need.
Originality/value
If equity is measured in terms of perceived need rather than finite resources a case is made that primary carers of people with a mental disability experience greater burdens in care.
Details
Keywords
Patti Cybinski and Carolyn Windsor
As a result of the Australian Government Productivity Commission's recommendation to mandate remuneration committee independence for ASX300 companies, this study aims to…
Abstract
Purpose
As a result of the Australian Government Productivity Commission's recommendation to mandate remuneration committee independence for ASX300 companies, this study aims to investigate whether voluntary remuneration committee independence aligns chief executive officer (CEO) total pay and bonuses with firm financial performance.
Design/methodology/approach
A series of hypotheses test the research question using multiple regressions for a sample of 143 ASX300 companies during 2001. This time was prior to strengthen corporate governance regulation, but after mandated executive remuneration disclosure, thus capturing varying levels of voluntary remuneration committee independence.
Findings
This study shows firm size is an influential factor in the relationship under investigation. ASX300 large firm remuneration committees link CEO total remuneration and bonuses to firm financial performance. Smaller ASX firm remuneration committees do not link either type of CEO remuneration to performance despite remuneration committee independence. Findings are mixed for medium-sized ASX300 firms.
Research limitations/implications
Limitations include the necessary time restriction to 2001 for sampling the ASX300 firms. The implication of this study's findings is that the proposed public policy for mandatory remuneration committee independence is not universally effective in linking CEO remuneration to firm financial performance for ASX300 firms.
Originality/value
This study contributes to the limited research on voluntary remuneration committee independence in relation to CEO remuneration and firm financial performance in the Australian context.