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The purpose of this paper is to quantify the possible interactions among the three European objectives in the horizon of 2020: the reduction of 20 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG); the saving of 20 per cent of the European energy consumption; and a share of 20 per cent of renewable energies in the overall energy consumption. Particular focus is, however, placed on the influence of the CO₂ emission reduction targets and on their consequences on the carbon price in 2020.

In order to explore the interactions among the three European objectives and their induced effects, a number of scenarios are tested within a combination of two modeling tools: the POLES world energy model and ASPEN, an auxiliary model dedicated to the analysis of quota trading systems. With reasonable assumptions for the burden sharing among the member states, the energy efficiency objectives and the renewable energy targets are achieved using national quota systems in each European country (white and green certificate systems and their implicit prices), while the CO₂ emission reduction is carried out within the European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) in line with the objective of 20 per cent emission reduction.

The paper shows, in particular, that the two quota policies (white certificates and green certificates) decrease significantly the European marginal emission reduction cost and consequently, the compliance costs for ETS participants. The high‐renewable target compliance cost could be reduced significantly if carbon price signal and energy saving policies are in place. The paper also shows that the sole carbon price signal has a limited influence for stimulating renewable energies and energy savings and thus concludes on the need for specific policies targeting these two areas.

This paper is a first attempt to comprehensively deal with the economic fundamentals of the 3D regulatory system proposed by the Commission for Energy and Climate and is of value in proposing a comprehensive approach of the economics of the “20/20/20” European policy.

The intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) is a major outcome of the Paris Agreement on international cooperation to reduce emissions, and is likely to be the future scenario for carbon emissions. This paper aims to obtain the fine spatial pattern of carbon emissions in 2030, identify hot spots and analyze changes of carbon emissions with a spatial grid method.

Based on the integrated quantified INDCs of each economy in 2030, the authors predict the population density pattern in 2030 by using the statistics of current population density, natural growth rates and differences in population growth resulting from urbanization within countries. Then the authors regard population density as a comprehensive socioeconomic indicator for the top-bottom allocation of the INDC data to a 0.1° × 0.1° grid. Then, the grid spatial pattern of carbon emissions in 2030 is compared with that in 2016.

Under the unconditional and conditional scenarios, the global carbon emission grid values in 2030 will be within [0, 59,200.911] ktCO₂ and [0, 51,800.942] ktCO_2, respectively; eastern China, northern India, Western Europe and North America will continue to be the major emitters; grid carbon emissions will increase in most parts of the world compared to 2016, especially in densely populated areas.

While many studies have explored the overall global carbon emissions or warming under the INDC scenario, attention to spatial details is also required to help us make better emissions attributions and policy decisions from the perspective of the grid unit rather than the administrative unit.