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Article
Publication date: 8 April 2014

Pascal M Petit and Robert Guttman

1217

Abstract

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Foresight, vol. 16 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 8 April 2014

V. Duwicquet, E.M. Mouhoud and J. Oudinet

The aim of this paper is to estimate the dynamic of international migration between the different regions of the world for 2030 and to measure the impact of different kind of

2786

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this paper is to estimate the dynamic of international migration between the different regions of the world for 2030 and to measure the impact of different kind of migration policies on the economic and social evolution.

Design/methodology/approach

The change and migration forecasting are estimated for regions of the world using macroeconomic Cambridge Alphametrics Model.

Findings

The crisis and its aggravation thus clearly favour scenarios of immigration policy along the “zero migration” or “constant migration”. These choices of migration policies reinforce the deflationary process resulting in reduced opportunities for renewed growth in industrial areas and are not offset by the dynamism of growth in emerging countries. Paradoxically, the developed countries which are most durably affected by the crisis are also those that have ageing population and are in high need of skilled and unskilled labor.

Practical implications

Three options are possible: one going along the depressive process by espousing restrictive immigration policies that remain expensive. The second involves a highly selective immigration policy. Under these conditions the demographic revival already appearing would be reinforced by a rejuvenation of the population brought about by a more open immigration policy. Political and institutional factors play a fundamental role in the emergence of this optimistic assumption and the rise of isolationism in Europe and the ghettoization of suburban areas can hinder the application of such a policy of openness to migration. The third scenario, the mass migration scenario, allows letting go of the growth related constraints and getting out of the deflationist spiral. This pro-active approach could cause public opinions to change in line with public interest. This scenario of mass migration has more of a chance to see the light under a growth hypothesis. However, restrictive policies weaken the prospects of sustainable recovery causing a vicious cycle that can only be broken by pro-active policies or by irresistible shocks.

Originality/value

From specific estimations, four immigration regimes have been built that cut across the major regions of the model: the “core skill replacement migration regime” based on selective policies using migration to fill high-skilled labor needs (United Kingdom, West and Northern Europe, Canada, Australia, and USA), “mass immigration and replacement” applies to South Europe, East Asia High Income, and part of West Asia (Gulf countries), “big fast-growing emerging regions of future mass immigration,” notably China, India and “South-South migration” based on forced migration much of it by climate change, which may likely occur in South Asia, part of West Asia, and, most of Africa (without South Africa). Migrations in transit countries (Central America to USA, and East Europe to UK and West Europe) are based on low skilled migrants in labor-intensive sectors.

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Foresight, vol. 16 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 8 April 2014

Rémi Bazillier and Julien Vauday

This paper aims to provide a theoretical approach of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) in order to assess whether CSR will develop as a concept pushing efficiently for more de

6343

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to provide a theoretical approach of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) in order to assess whether CSR will develop as a concept pushing efficiently for more de facto social responsibility or will become a pure marketing artefact. The trade-off between the development of CSR behaviour and lobbying over regulations is a key element that will influence the evolution of CSR. The result is that if the world consolidates or if it tends towards multilateralism to a large extent, then CSR is less likely to have an efficient impact.

Design/methodology/approach

Theoretical approach based on three fields: credence goods, greenwashing and political economy.

Findings

The coordination is harder for lobbies in the more multilateral scenario. The more politically powerful group would lose its influence on the decision body in the multipolar scenario. If lobbies keep influencing their state governments, the efficiency would also be reduced in the regionalization or multipolar scenarios. The easiness of the greenwashing strategy is also crucial in order to determine the possible evolution of the CSR as a real commitment that benefits environment and society.

Research limitations/implications

Countries may take advantage of CSR by offering an advantage to firms willing to develop CSR thanks to public regulations if greenwashing is easy and if the evolution of the world that prevails is similar to the tripolar or regionalization scenarios. This may also occur under the multipolar scenario but it would necessitate an effective international coordination.

Originality/value

This is the first work that brings together the strategic behaviour of firms with respect to Corporate Social Responsibility and political economy determinants. The predicted evolutions of these two features according to the degree of multilateralism as well as how they are intertwined are also novelties of this paper.

Details

Foresight, vol. 16 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 8 April 2014

Remi Barre

The purpose of this paper is to shed light on innovation systems dynamics and the positioning of Europe in a longer term perspective, with special attention to the international

746

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to shed light on innovation systems dynamics and the positioning of Europe in a longer term perspective, with special attention to the international governance of the major challenges which humanity is facing.

Design/methodology/approach

The method used is based on a secondary analysis and interpretation of Foresight studies. The underlying assumption is that Foresight exercises can be considered as the scene where techno-economic systems and trajectories are proposed, discussed and shaped.

Findings

Foresights can be distinguished by the challenges and issues they focus on: – the innovation race: competitiveness and influence through innovation, – the thematic concerns: the stakes of global public goods, – the normative perspectives: a new style of development in the making. The question to know whether Europe can be a world driver in fostering responsible innovation models and cooperative modes of knowledge circulation and global challenges handling through relevant social and technological innovations.

Originality/value

This paper reviews and puts in perspective Foresight exercises in an original way, this on two grounds: first, it includes exercises fostered at national, regional (in particular the EU) and global (UN system) levels – this to account for the emerging multi-level governance and, second, it classifies them according to their major focus, namely the innovation race, the thematic concerns (global public goods) and the normative perspectives (new style of development). It provides to the actors of innovation in both the public and private sector an understanding of the current key-concerns and visions on innovation systems and the position of Europe.

Details

Foresight, vol. 16 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 1 April 1985

I. KARPOUZAS

The object of this study is a comparison of two minimization methods (“Aliénor” and “Vignes directe”) applied to the mathematical modelization of a biological system, viz. the…

42

Abstract

The object of this study is a comparison of two minimization methods (“Aliénor” and “Vignes directe”) applied to the mathematical modelization of a biological system, viz. the ventilatory system. “Aliénor's method” is a new global optimization technique which is not very often used, while “Vignes directe's method” has already existed for a long time.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 14 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

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Article
Publication date: 8 April 2014

Jean-Pierre Cling

The global governance of trade is in a deadlock and the WTO is suffering from a long standing crisis of legitimacy. This paper aims to analyse the main issues which might

3844

Abstract

Purpose

The global governance of trade is in a deadlock and the WTO is suffering from a long standing crisis of legitimacy. This paper aims to analyse the main issues which might influence the governance of world trade from now until 2030 and present quantitative projections of international trade.

Design/methodology/approach

The research on the main issues which might influence the governance of world trade from now until 2030 draws on a detailed analysis of the WTO and trade policies. Four scenarios of the world economy are presented, which are derived from the international AUGUR research project “Challenges for Europe in the world in 2030” coordinated by Paris Nord University. The analysis takes into account econometric forecasting of world trade conducted in the framework of this project.

Findings

First, the failure of the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations to reach its ambitious agenda derives from the discrepancy between the governance of world trade and the new power relationship prevailing in the world economy, with new emerging powers (China, India, etc.) rapidly increasing their share of world trade. Second, the continuous restructuring of world trade and economy, which goes together with new forms of globalization, will increase pressure for a profound reform of the governance of world trade in the next few years.

Research limitations/implications

This paper calls for a reform of world trade governance, especially of the missions of WTO within a renovated economic world order. Future research could investigate more deeply the potential for regional trade integration, which is reinforced by international production networks. Regional trade agreements might be an increasing alternative to multilateral trade agreements.

Originality/value

This paper brings new ideas by raising the issue of the governance of world trade using a prospective approach, with the aim to identify the key channels through which international trade integration will impact the world economy. This study bases its analysis on potential scenarios from now on until 2030, each of these scenarios corresponding to a specific institutional configuration.

Details

Foresight, vol. 16 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 8 April 2014

Jean-Baptiste Gossé and Dominique Plihon

This article aims to provide insight into the future of financial markets and regulation in order to define what would be the best strategy for Europe.

1552

Abstract

Purpose

This article aims to provide insight into the future of financial markets and regulation in order to define what would be the best strategy for Europe.

Design/methodology/approach

First the authors define the potential changes in financial markets and then the tools available for the regulator to tame them. Finally, they build five scenarios according to the main evolutions observed on the financial markets and on the tools used by the regulator to modify these trends.

Findings

Among the five scenarios defined, two present highly unstable features since the regulator refuses to choose between financial opening and independently determining how to regulate finance in order to preserve financial stability. Three of them achieve financial stability. However, they are more or less efficient or feasible. In terms of market efficiency, the multi-polar scenario is the best and the fragmentation scenario is the worst, since gains of integration depend on the size of the new capital market. Regarding sovereignty of regulation, fragmentation is the best scenario and the multi-polar scenario is the worst, because it necessitates coordination at the global level which implies moving further away from respective national preferences. However, the more realistic option seems to be the regionalisation scenario: this level of coordination seems much more realistic than the global one; the market should be of sufficient size to enjoy substantial benefits of integration. Nevertheless, the “European government” might gradually increase the degree of financial integration outside Europe in line with the degree of cooperation with the rest of the world.

Originality/value

Foresight studies on financial markets and regulation are quite rare. This may be explained by the difficulty to forecast what will be their evolution in the coming decades, not least because finance is fundamentally unstable. This paper provides a framework to consider what could be the best strategy of regulators in such an unstable environment.

Details

Foresight, vol. 16 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Book part
Publication date: 7 January 2016

Mehdi Abbas

This paper analyses the stalling of the Doha Development Agenda (DDA) and its systemic and institutional consequences through a geopolitical economy approach that integrates the…

Abstract

This paper analyses the stalling of the Doha Development Agenda (DDA) and its systemic and institutional consequences through a geopolitical economy approach that integrates the French school of international economic relations and Régulation Theory. These approaches put states and their economic roles at the fore, correcting dominant free trade approaches to world trade. The paper also avoids monocausal explanations for trade talk deadlocks and aims to provide a comprehensive approach on the co-evolution of world trade patterns and its institutions. In this approach, the DDA stalemate is traced to an institution-structure mismatch in how states articulate their accumulation strategies and institutions (competition, state regulation, adhesion to international regime) to the World Trade Organization (WTO) regime occasioned by the emergence of new trade powers. This has given rise to three distinct conflicts in how member states navigate between the main parameters of the multilateral trading system (non-discrimination, reciprocity and balance of power) and their national accumulation strategies: the erosion of non-discrimination and reciprocity; the failure to build an operational compromise between development and ‘globalization’, that is, between multilateral openness and new trade and power balances; and the difficulty in reaching a compromise between historical and emerging capitalisms. The outcome of these conflicts will determine the institutional configuration of the post-Doha WTO agenda.

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Article
Publication date: 8 April 2014

Andrew James and Thomas Teichler

This paper aims to provide a meta-analysis of the main themes emerging from public domain foresight studies on the defence and security environment undertaken in the decade since

1153

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to provide a meta-analysis of the main themes emerging from public domain foresight studies on the defence and security environment undertaken in the decade since the 9/11 attacks on the USA. The authors focus mainly on foresight studies undertaken in Europe.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper is based on a content analysis of public domain foresight studies.

Findings

Foresight studies on the defence and security environment reflect a shift in security thinking away from a focus on state-centric threats towards a much broader view of security risks that includes risks presented by the vulnerability of European society to the failure of critical infrastructure, to pandemics, environmental change and resource based conflicts. The authors place a particular emphasis on the treatment of technological change in these defence and security foresight studies and argue that the growing importance of dual-use technologies is likely to mean that defence will play a declining role as a sponsor and lead-user of advanced technologies in the future.

Originality/value

Foresight studies on the defence and security environment have grown in number since 9/11 not least in Europe. However, they have been the subject of little systematic analysis. This paper makes a contribution to such an analysis.

Details

Foresight, vol. 16 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 1 October 2006

Chérifa Boukacem‐Zeghmouri, Pascal Bador, Thierry Lafouge, Hélène Prost and Joachim Schöpfel

The article seeks to investigate the evolution of document supply of print serials.

322

Abstract

Purpose

The article seeks to investigate the evolution of document supply of print serials.

Design/methodology/approach

The study is based on data from INIST‐CNRS – document supply requests and access to electronic resources – of 95 serials with JCR impact factors in pharmacology. Data were collected from 1992 to 2003.

Findings

The results distinguish four groups of serials each with a different evolution of document supply requests. Nevertheless, the overall decline from 1999 is a global phenomenon linked to growing access to online journals and there seems little likelihood of a slowdown for the next few years.

Originality/value

This is the first of three articles on a longitudinal study over 12 years on different aspects of the relationship between document supply and impact factor (citations) in pharmacology, a scientific domain with a high use of scientific information.

Details

Interlending & Document Supply, vol. 34 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0264-1615

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