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Book part
Publication date: 29 January 2013

Julián Arellana, Juan de Dios Ortúzar and Luis Ignacio Rizzi

Purpose – Departure time choice not only depends on the desire to carry out activities at certain times and places; it is a complex decision making process influenced by travel…

Abstract

Purpose – Departure time choice not only depends on the desire to carry out activities at certain times and places; it is a complex decision making process influenced by travel conditions, congestion levels, activity schedules, and external trip factors. To estimate departure time choice models capturing the factors influencing it in appropriate form, a complex data collection procedure allowing to obtain detailed input data from different sources and at different time periods is required.

The main aim of this chapter is to describe and discuss the survey methodology we used in a time-of-day choice project, involving the collection of revealed preference (RP) and stated preference (SP) data to estimate hybrid discrete departure time choice models incorporating latent variables. Preliminary model results are also presented as an example.

Methodology/approach – Data was obtained from 405 workers at different private and public institutions located in the centre of Santiago, Chile. The survey process had three different stages and used various collection methods (e-mail, web-page, and personal interviews at the workplace) in order to satisfy efficiency, reliability and cost criteria.

The RP component survey design was based on the last origin-destination survey implemented in Santiago (i.e. a travel diary filled under an activity recall framework). Relevant level-of-service measures at different time periods were obtained from GPS data measured from instrumented vehicles in the public and private transport networks. A SP-off-RP optimal design considering dependence among attribute levels was also developed. Finally, several 1–7 Likert scale questions were included to incorporate the latent variables.

Findings – The survey methodology described in this chapter represents a successful experience in terms of collecting high quality data, from different sources, with the aim of estimating appropriate time-of-day choice models. The data collection process was carried out in different stages, by means of web pages, email, and personal interviews. The data was further enriched with level-of-service attributes measured at different times of the day with unusual precision. Preliminary results reported in this chapter show that data obtained through this methodology are appropriate to model time-of-day choices.

Originality/value of chapter – The novelty of the survey methodology described in this chapter is the collection of data of a different nature for time-of-day choice modelling through the integration of different collection techniques.

Acquisition of very precise information about preferred departure/arrival times, level of service at different times of the day, detailed information about flexibility in schedules, employment information and attitudes towards departure times, should allow practitioners to estimate hybrid time-of-day choice models incorporating latent variables.

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Transport Survey Methods
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78-190288-2

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Article
Publication date: 1 February 1976

P. Polak

This paper suggests ways of improving rotor flow patterns in centrifugal compressors, thereby hoping to raise overall efficiency. The experimental work of Fowler is compared and…

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Abstract

This paper suggests ways of improving rotor flow patterns in centrifugal compressors, thereby hoping to raise overall efficiency. The experimental work of Fowler is compared and contrasted with theoretical predictions by Stanitz and others. Based on these, design proposals are made to counter the effects noted.

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Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology, vol. 48 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0002-2667

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Article
Publication date: 11 September 2020

Armin Firoozpour, Ehsan Marzban and Ali Asghar Pourezzat

Thinking and deciding about the future of the city as a combination of complex and uncertain systems is extremely difficult. This complexity, uncertainty and difficulty will be…

207

Abstract

Purpose

Thinking and deciding about the future of the city as a combination of complex and uncertain systems is extremely difficult. This complexity, uncertainty and difficulty will be increased when our thoughts and decisions address the city’s long-term future. Considering these issues, the need for future thinking and alternate thinking in the process of urban management and planning becomes even more necessary. The purpose of this paper is to identify and explain the alternate futures of Tehran.

Design/methodology/approach

For this purpose, this study have tried to study alternate future images of Tehran in an archetypal form of “growth, collapse, disciplined society and transformed society” using “Dator’s Four Generic Alternate Futures” method.

Findings

These alternate futures, after identifying their key trends and drivers, have been narrated in the form of four scenarios called: “capital business center,” “crossing the fate of ray,” “Tehran family” and “Tehran investigators.” Increasing the authority and responsibility of the local governance, modification of Tehran urban management model and development of voluntary cooperation and democratic participation, are among the policy recommendations made on the basis of these images.

Originality/value

Achieving these images in parallel with identifying the most important challenges and opportunities in alternate futures will provide the basis for policy-making in Tehran’s future urban governance. It can be a creative model for developing future images for other cities.

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foresight, vol. 23 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Book part
Publication date: 14 September 2007

John Bates

Abstract

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Handbook of Transport Modelling
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-08-045376-7

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Article
Publication date: 17 October 2010

Dennis R. Morgan

Expanding on the findings of the SOPIFF research project, this paper aims to identify eight futures schools of thought, which are analyzed and critiqued through an integral

591

Abstract

Purpose

Expanding on the findings of the SOPIFF research project, this paper aims to identify eight futures schools of thought, which are analyzed and critiqued through an integral framework. As “Part II” of a previous publication, it seeks to focus on the lower (plural) quadrants.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper adapts Ken Wilber's integral theory to clarify various philosophical orientations to the future. It also adapts Fredrich Polak's approach to futures as a matter of “social critique and reconstruction”; however, the approach is global, civilizational, and integral, so it proposes civilizational critique and integral reconstruction as a method for evaluating futures schools of thought.

Findings

The IF framework is found to be a valuable theoretical and analytical tool for clarifying images of the future; it shows lines of development within each quadrant and interactions between quadrants, illustrating the effectiveness of the four‐quadrant approach.

Research limitations/implications

It further illuminates the “global problematique” expressed in the SOPIFF project and proposes the IF framework as a way to interpret those research findings.

Practical implications

This approach to futures/foresight studies broadens the range and offers more depth to conceptions of the future, so it should help to develop/improve futures methodologies/practices in general.

Social implications

Civilizational critique and integral reconstruction of images of the future imply unprecedented social change.

Originality/value

The paper should help futurists to see and interpret the “bigger picture” of civilizational futures through revealing the “crack” of the modern image of the future, how it relates to the current world crisis, and what is needed to heal the crack, so a new vision of a preferred future can emerge.

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Foresight, vol. 12 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Book part
Publication date: 15 January 2010

Yaron Hollander

We review what is known and what is still unknown about the process of revealing the impact of unreliability on travel choices. We do this from the perspective of a…

Abstract

We review what is known and what is still unknown about the process of revealing the impact of unreliability on travel choices. We do this from the perspective of a demand-modelling practitioner who wishes to allow for the benefits from improved reliability in the assessment of a transport scheme. We discuss the travel responses affected by unreliability, the requirements from the data used to model these responses, the explanatory variables used in these models and the additional information required as input when applying them. One of our findings is that there is a conflict between existing studies in their conclusions about the aversion to early arrival. Another notion is that it is unclear whether the common simplified treatment of the distribution of preferred arrival times is acceptable. We also suggest that the dominance of departure time shifting as a primary response to unreliability might refute the common assumptions about travellers' choice hierarchy, which was established without considering the impact of unreliability; this raises questions about the robustness of assignment models that do not allow time shifting.

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Choice Modelling: The State-of-the-art and The State-of-practice
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-773-8

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Article
Publication date: 9 October 2007

L. Seymour and K. Nadasen

The purpose of this research is to address increasing levels of web misuse, high internet costs and decisions regarding restricting web access, this research set out to identify…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this research is to address increasing levels of web misuse, high internet costs and decisions regarding restricting web access, this research set out to identify factors that contribute to positive web use or reduce web misuse in the work environment.

Design/methodology/approach

The theory of planned behaviour has been used in previous research to investigate factors that contribute to web abuse in the workplace. These factors, potential demographic factors that could impact web abuse as well as factors that make the advantages of the web possible were surveyed amongst information technology (IT) professionals in the Western Cape IT sector in 2004. The 94 responses were then analysed quantitatively.

Findings

Results showed that higher levels of web access increased perceptions of information literacy and information access. None of the subjective norm or attitudinal antecedents showed significant support for reducing web abuse. Interestingly, close managerial supervision displayed significance by increasing web abuse. Demographic factors of firm size, number of years internet use, age and profession showed significance in predicting web abuse.

Research limitations/implications

Attitudinal factors such as playfulness, self‐efficacy and internet addiction were not included in this study and could be useful in future research. Many factors followed the expected trends but failed to show significance, a larger and more diverse sample size could have improved the results.

Originality/value

The research findings are of interest to practitioners trying to manage web abuse and are also relevant in the context of high cost internet access and low bandwidth prevalent in many developing countries.

Details

The Electronic Library, vol. 25 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0264-0473

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Book part
Publication date: 31 January 2015

Erel Avineri and Eran Ben-Elia

This chapter explores Prospect Theory — a descriptive model of modelling individual choice making under risk and uncertainty, and its applications to a range of travel behaviour…

Abstract

Purpose

This chapter explores Prospect Theory — a descriptive model of modelling individual choice making under risk and uncertainty, and its applications to a range of travel behaviour contexts.

Theory

The chapter provides background on Prospect Theory, its basic assumptions and formulations, and summarises some of its theoretical developments, applications and evidence in the field of transport research.

Findings

A body of empirical evidence has accumulated showing that the principle of maximisation of expected utility provides limited explanation of travel choices under risk and uncertainty. Prospect Theory can be seen as an alternative and promising framework for travel choice modelling (although not without theoretical and practical controversy). These findings are supported by empirical observations reported in the literature reviewed in this chapter.

Originality and value

The chapter provides a detailed account of the design and results of accumulated research in travel behaviour research that is based on Prospect Theory’s observations, insights and formulations. The potential of Prospect Theory for particular decision-making in travel behaviour research is articulated, main findings are presented and discussed, and limitations are identified, leading to further research needs.

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Bounded Rational Choice Behaviour: Applications in Transport
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78441-071-1

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Article
Publication date: 19 October 2010

Sylvio Cyr and Chun Wei Choo

This paper aims to examine how knowledge sharing behavior is influenced by three sets of dynamics: a rational calculus that weighs the costs and benefits of sharing; a…

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine how knowledge sharing behavior is influenced by three sets of dynamics: a rational calculus that weighs the costs and benefits of sharing; a dispositional preference that favors certain patterns of sharing outcomes; and a relational effect based on working relationships.

Design/methodology/approach

Concepts from social exchange theory, social value orientation, and leader‐member exchange theory are applied to analyze behavioral intentions to share knowledge. The study population consists of employees of a large pension fund in Canada. Participants answered a survey that used allocation games and situational vignettes to measure social value orientation, propensity to share knowledge, and perception of cost and benefit.

Findings

The results suggest that personal preferences about the distribution of sharing outcomes, individual perceptions about costs and benefits, and structural relationship with knowledge recipients, all affect knowledge sharing behavior significantly. Notably, it was found that propensity to share knowledge is positively related to perceived benefit to the recipient, thus suggesting that evaluation of cost and benefit in social exchange is not limited to self‐interest, but is also influenced by perceived recipient benefit. Moreover, it was found that the relationship with the sharing target (superior or colleague) also influenced sharing.

Originality/value

Most studies emphasize the organizational benefits of knowledge sharing. This study examines knowledge sharing from the perspective of the individual who approaches knowledge sharing as a social exchange that involves perceptions of costs and benefits, preferences about sharing outcomes, and relationship with the sharing target. The study also introduces innovative methods to measure social value orientation and propensity to share knowledge.

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Journal of Documentation, vol. 66 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0022-0418

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Article
Publication date: 21 June 2018

Dennis Ray Morgan

This paper aims to depict how the state of inverted totalitarianism is emerging in post-postnormal times and illustrate how it shares many of the same features of the…

1463

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to depict how the state of inverted totalitarianism is emerging in post-postnormal times and illustrate how it shares many of the same features of the totalitarianism depicted in the novels Brave New World (A. Huxley) and 1984 (G. Orwell). It also shows how a “way forward” is possible through a paradigmatic reorientation of “well-being” and “happiness”.

Design/methodology/approach

The research is based on literature within the field of futures studies, as well as relevant sources outside the futures field. It applies R Slaughter’s critical futures and F Polak’s method of social critique and reconstruction in its analysis of the state of inverted totalitarianism in post postmodern times.

Findings

It finds that the technological society and the US empire (with its attendant corporatocracy, Panopticon and PAC man values) in post-postnormal times is drifting toward a state of inverted totalitarianism, which is remarkably beginning to resemble Aldous Huxley’s Brave New World and G. Orwell’s 1984.

Research limitations/implications

The research is an essay and conceptual paper, so it is limited by its conceptual, philosophical nature and the author’s interpretation of social phenomena. It could also include the latest research on the role that the manipulation of internet algorithms plays in the state of inverted totalitarianism. It could also include more reconstructive details.

Practical implications

Sheer consciousness of the state of inverted totalitarianism and the need for social reconstruction should lead to a reevaluation of the meaning of the good society and how to realize it.

Social implications

Social critique and reconstruction are essential to the survival of any given society or civilization, as the groundwork for the emergence of wise foresight. The creative minority of a civilization must understand its predicament, the nature of its civilizational crisis, before it can even begin to understand and meet the challenge of the future.

Originality/value

The paper presents post-postnormal times as the back drop through which a state of inverted totalitarianism is emerging – a social dystopia that resembles the dystopias depicted in the novels, Brave New World and 1984. Inverted totalitarianism is shown to be an outgrowth of the technological society and the American empire (a corporatocracy and Panopticon increasingly global in nature). Freedom from this emerging totalitarianism begins with the realization of its existence and its given assumptions about the meaning of life and the pursuit of happiness. The paper also posits social critique and reconstruction (as well as critical futures) as a fundamental method to deconstruct and reconstruct the paradigm that supports inverted totalitarianism.

Details

foresight, vol. 20 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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