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We investigate the impact of private credit expansion and contraction on the unemployment rate in Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) countries.

Credit expansion and contraction are measured using a three-level criterion. The fixed effect panel regression model was used to estimate the impact of private credit contraction and expansion on the unemployment rate in ECOWAS countries.

Private credit contraction significantly increases the unemployment rate in ECOWAS countries. Private credit expansion does not have a significant effect on the unemployment rate. Real GDP growth has a significant negative effect on the unemployment rate which supports the prediction of the Okun’s Law while the inflation rate has a positive and insignificant effect on the rate of unemployment in ECOWAS countries which contradicts the prediction of the Phillips curve.

Policymakers in ECOWAS countries need to be cautious when introducing policies that lead to private credit contraction as it could increase unemployment. Policymakers in ECOWAS countries should also find the “threshold” below which private credit contraction will worsen the unemployment rate and introduce policy measures to ensure that private credit contraction does not fall below the threshold.

The literature has not examined the factors leading to tight labor markets or unemployment in West African countries.

The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-12-2023-0939.

This paper investigates the effect of abnormal increase in credit supply on economic growth in Nigeria after controlling for the quality of the legal system, size of central bank asset, banking sector cost efficiency and bank insolvency risk.

The authors employ the generalised method of moments (GMM) regression methodology to estimate the effect of abnormal increase in credit supply on two measures of economic growth in Nigeria.

The abnormal increase in credit supply has a significant effect on economic growth. Abnormal increase in credit supply increases real gross domestic product (GDP) growth. The abnormal increase in credit supply decreases real GDP per capita during the global financial crisis. The abnormal increase in domestic credit to the private sector has a significant positive effect on GDP per capita when there is strong legal system quality in Nigeria. In contrast, the abnormal increase in domestic credit to the private sector has a significant negative effect on real GDP growth when there is strong legal system quality in Nigeria.

The abnormal increase in credit supply is ineffective in increasing GDP per capita during crisis years. Policymakers should be cautious in pressuring financial institutions to release an abnormally large amount of credit into the economy particularly during financial crises. Rather, policymakers should encourage financial institutions to supply credit in a sustained manner – not in an abnormal manner –and in a way that supports growth.

The present study contributes to the literature by analysing the effect of abnormal increase in credit supply on economic growth in a developing country context.