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Article
Publication date: 19 February 2018

Naiming Xie, Ruizhi Wang and Nanlei Chen

This paper aims to analyze general development trend of China’s population and to forecast China’s total population under the change of China’s family planning policy so as to…

544

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to analyze general development trend of China’s population and to forecast China’s total population under the change of China’s family planning policy so as to measure shock disturbance effects on China’s population development.

Design/methodology/approach

China has been the most populous country for hundreds of years. And this state will be sustained in the forthcoming decade. Obviously, China is confronted with greater pressure on controlling total scale of population than any other country. Meanwhile, controlling population will be beneficial for not only China but also the whole world. This paper first analyzes general development trend of China’s population total amount, sex ratio and aging ratio. The mechanism for measurement of the impact effect of a policy shock disturbance is proposed. Linear regression model, exponential curve model and grey Verhulst model are adopted to test accuracy of simulation of China’s total population. Then considering the policy shock disturbance on population, discrete grey model, DGM (1, 1), and grey Verhulst model were adopted to measure how China’s one-child policy affected its total population between 1978 and 2015. And similarly, the grey Verhulst model and scenario analysis of economic developing level were further used to forecast the effect of adjustment from China’s one-child policy to two-child policy.

Findings

Results show that China has made an outstanding contribution toward controlling population; it was estimated that China prevented nearly 470 million births since the late 1970s to 2015. However, according to the forecast, with the adjustment of the one-child policy, the birth rate will be a little higher, China’s total population was estimated to reach 1,485.59 million in 2025. Although the scale of population will keep increasing, but it is tolerable for China and sex ratio and trend of aging will be relieved obviously.

Practical implications

The approach constructed in the paper can be used to measure the effect of population change under the policy shock disturbance. It can be used for other policy effect measurement problems under shock events’ disturbance.

Originality/value

The paper succeeded in studying the mechanism for the measurement of the post-impact effect of a policy and the effect of changes in China’s population following the revision of the one-child policy. The mechanism is useful for solving system forecasting problems and can contribute toward improving the grey decision-making models.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 47 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

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Article
Publication date: 20 May 2020

Nanlei Chen and Naiming Xie

The purpose of this paper is to propose an uncertainty representation and information measurement method for characterizing grey numbers, estimating their internal laws and…

202

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to propose an uncertainty representation and information measurement method for characterizing grey numbers, estimating their internal laws and solving how to generate them based on available information data in the real world.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper attempts to present a new mathematical methodology in the field of grey numbers. The generalized grey number is defined at first with the concept of information elements and information samples. Then, the probability function of a grey number is proposed to describe the internal law of the grey number. By finding the feasible information elements from information samples, the probability calculation method for the true value of a grey number is presented. Finally, some numerical examples and comparisons are carried out to assess the efficiency and performance.

Findings

The results show that the uncertainty representation and information measurement method is effective in characterizing and quantifying grey numbers based on available information data.

Practical implications

Uncertain information is widespread in practical applications. In this manuscript, the grey number is represented and its information is measured through some existing data in discrete or interval forms, which provides a grey information concept that utilizes information elements to represent uncertainty in the real world.

Originality/value

The proposal presents a novel data-driven method to generate a grey number representation from available data rather than the classical whitening weight function constructed from experience, and the dynamic evolution process of a grey number is measured by the increase of information samples.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 10 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 6 December 2018

Lu Yang and Naiming Xie

The purpose of this paper is to establish a new evaluation system to assess the degree of integration between industry and the internet. And use the gray correlation matrix method…

228

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to establish a new evaluation system to assess the degree of integration between industry and the internet. And use the gray correlation matrix method to evaluate the “internet + industry” integration degree of China’s provinces.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper establishes a new evaluation system to assess the degree of integration between industry and the internet using the matrix gray relational analysis method.

Findings

The main indexes and its rankings of the provinces’ integration degree and the rankings of the provinces’ integration degree are obtained.

Practical implications

The ranking of the degree of integration of various provinces in the country has certain guiding significance in promoting the development of “internet +” and “industry 4.0.”

Originality/value

Establishing a new model for the quantitative assessment of the degree of fusion, this method has a positive impact on the quantitative assessment of “internet + industrial” integration.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 9 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 15 July 2020

Wenpei Xu and Ting-Kwei Wang

This study provides a safety prewarning mechanism, which includes a comprehensive risk assessment model and a safety prewarning system. The comprehensive risk assessment model is…

921

Abstract

Purpose

This study provides a safety prewarning mechanism, which includes a comprehensive risk assessment model and a safety prewarning system. The comprehensive risk assessment model is capable of assessing nine safety indicators, which can be categorised into workers’ behaviour, environment and machine-related safety indicators, and the model is embedded in the safety prewarning system. The safety prewarning system can automatically extract safety information from surveillance cameras based on computer vision, assess risks based on the embedded comprehensive risk assessment model, categorise risks into five levels and provide timely suggestions.

Design/methodology/approach

Firstly, the comprehensive risk assessment model is constructed by adopting grey multihierarchical analysis method. The method combines the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the grey clustering evaluation in the grey theory. Expert knowledge, obtained through the questionnaire approach, contributes to set weights of risk indicators and evaluate risks. Secondly, a safety prewarning system is developed, including data acquisition layer, data processing layer and prewarning layer. Computer vision is applied in the system to automatically extract real-time safety information from the surveillance cameras. The safety information is then processed through the comprehensive risk assessment model and categorized into five risk levels. A case study is presented to verify the proposed mechanism.

Findings

Through a case study, the result shows that the proposed mechanism is capable of analyzing integrated human-machine-environment risk, timely categorising risks into five risk levels and providing potential suggestions.

Originality/value

The comprehensive risk assessment model is capable of assessing nine risk indicators, identifying three types of entities, workers, environment and machine on the construction site, presenting the integrated risk based on nine indicators. The proposed mechanism, which adopts expert knowledge through Building Information Modeling (BIM) safety simulation and extracts safety information based on computer vision, can perform a dynamic real-time risk analysis, categorize risks into five risk levels and provide potential suggestions to corresponding risk owners. The proposed mechanism can allow the project manager to take timely actions.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. 27 no. 8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 12 February 2025

Jianchun Sun, Shiyong Yang, Shengping Huang, Zhijiang Shang and Weihao Ling

This paper addresses the issue of internal spatial environmental pollution in non-blasting tunnel construction by proposing a comprehensive evaluation model. The model aims to…

40

Abstract

Purpose

This paper addresses the issue of internal spatial environmental pollution in non-blasting tunnel construction by proposing a comprehensive evaluation model. The model aims to provide a scientific basis for environmental pollution prevention in non-blasting tunnel construction, thereby facilitating green tunnel construction and sustainable development management.

Design/methodology/approach

The study firstly refines and constructs the evaluation index system from the perspective of pollution sources. A novel weight calculation method is introduced by integrating the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator, and a comprehensive evaluation model for internal environmental pollution in non-blasting tunnels is established by incorporating the grey clustering evaluation method. Finally, an empirical study is conducted using the Erbaoshan Tunnel as a case study to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the model.

Findings

The study develops an evaluation system for internal environmental pollution in non-blasting tunnels and applies it to the Erbaoshan Tunnel. The results classify the pollution level as “general pollution,” confirming the rationality and applicability of the evaluation system and model while also identifying the primary pollution factors.

Originality/value

This study first developed a comprehensive evaluation system for environmental pollution in non-blasting tunnel construction from the pollution source perspective, making the system more comprehensive. Additionally, it innovatively combined AHP–OWA and gray clustering methods to scientifically assess pollution levels, providing valuable scientific guidance for the evaluation and management of non-blasting tunnels and similar underground projects.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

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