Brahim Gaies, Mohamed Sahbi Nakhli and Nadia Arfaoui
The purpose of this paper is to analyse the dynamic and evolving relationship between Bitcoin mining (BTC) and climate policy uncertainty. By using the newly developed U.S…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to analyse the dynamic and evolving relationship between Bitcoin mining (BTC) and climate policy uncertainty. By using the newly developed U.S. Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU) indicator by Gavriilidis (2021) as a proxy for global climate-related transition risk, this study aims to explore the complex bidirectional causality between these two critical phenomena in climate-related finance. Further, we explore how economic and market factors influence the cryptocurrency market, focusing on the relationship between CPU and Bitcoin mining.
Design/methodology/approach
We employ a linear and non-linear rolling window sub-sample Granger causality approach combined with a probit model to examine the time-varying causalities between Bitcoin mining and the U.S. Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU) indicator. This method captures asymmetric effects and dynamic interactions that are often missed by linear and static models. It also allows for the endogenous determination of key drivers in the BTC–CPU nexus, ensuring that the results are not influenced by ad-hoc assumptions but are instead grounded in the data’s inherent properties.
Findings
The findings indicate that Bitcoin mining is negatively impacted by climate policy uncertainty during periods of increased environmental concern, while its energy-intensive nature contributes to increasing climate policy uncertainty. In addition to market factors, such as Bitcoin halving, and alternative assets, such as green equity, five main macroeconomic factors influence these relationships: financial instability, economic policy uncertainty, rising oil prices and increasing industrial production. Furthermore, two non-linear dynamics in the relationship between climate policy uncertainty and Bitcoin (CPU-BTC nexus) are identified: the “anticipatory regulatory decline effect”, when miners boost activity ahead of expected regulatory changes, but this increase is unsustainable due to stricter regulations, compliance costs, investor scrutiny and reputational risks linked to high energy use.
Originality/value
This study is the first in the literature to examine the time-varying and asymmetric relationships between Bitcoin mining and climate policy uncertainty, aspects often overlooked by static causality and average-based coefficient models used in previous research. It uncovers two previously unidentified non-linear effects in the BTC-CPU nexus: the “anticipatory regulatory decline effect” and the “mining-driven regulatory surge”, and identifies major market factors macro-determinants of this nexus. The implications are substantial, aiding policymakers in formulating effective regulatory frameworks, helping investors develop more sustainable investment strategies and enabling industry stakeholders to better manage the environmental challenges facing the Bitcoin mining sector.
Details
Keywords
This paper aims to investigate the effect of the political risk on Bitcoin return and volatility during the 2016 US pre-election and post-election periods.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate the effect of the political risk on Bitcoin return and volatility during the 2016 US pre-election and post-election periods.
Design/methodology/approach
A daily composite political risk index is calculated by using the principal component analysis and Google Trends. A quantile regression approach is adopted to assess the effect of the political risk index on Bitcoin return and volatility for both periods subject to market conditions.
Findings
Findings reveal that the political risk index tends to increase when moving from the pre-election period to the post-election one. This is mostly attributed to the new challenges faced by the new elected government. During the pre-election period, the quantiles regression shows that the political risk index negatively affects Bitcoin return when the market is bearish, whereas a positive impact on volatility is found in bearish and bullish markets. When the political situation becomes severer during the post-election period, the quantiles plots show that the increase of the political risk index leads to a significant increase of Bitcoin return, whereas Bitcoin volatility remains relatively stable. This means that Bitcoin can be adopted as a hedging tool when the political situation becomes severer.
Originality/value
Comparing to the existed studies in the field, this paper considers Google trends as a main source to assess the daily composite political risk index during the 2016 US presidential election.
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Keywords
Hechem Ajmi, Nadia Arfaoui and Karima Saci
This paper aims to investigate the volatility transmission across stocks, gold and crude oil markets before and during the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate the volatility transmission across stocks, gold and crude oil markets before and during the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis.
Design/methodology/approach
A multivariate vector autoregression (VAR)-Baba, Engle, Kraft and Kroner generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model (BEKK-GARCH) is used to assess volatility transmission across the examined markets. The sample is divided as follows. The first period ranging from 02/01/2019 to 10/03/2020 defines the pre-COVID-19 crisis. The second period is from 11/03/2020 to 05/10/2020, representing the COVID-19 crisis period. Then, a robustness test is used using exponential GARCH models after including an exogenous variable capturing the growth of COVID-19 confirmed death cases worldwide with the aim to test the accuracy of the VAR-BEKK-GARCH estimated results.
Findings
Results indicate that the interconnectedness among the examined market has been intensified during the COVID-19 crisis, proving the lack of hedging opportunities. It is also found that stocks and Gold markets lead the crude oil market especially during the COVID-19 crisis, which explains the freefall of the crude oil price during the health crisis. Similarly, results show that Gold is most likely to act as a diversifier rather than a hedging tool during the current health crisis.
Originality/value
Although the recent studies in the field focused on analyzing the relationships between different markets during the first quarter of 2020, this study considers a larger data set with the aim to assess the volatility transmission across the examined international markets Amid the COVID-19 crisis, while it shows the most significant impact on various financial markets compared to other diseases.