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Article
Publication date: 17 September 2024

Emmanuel Joel Aikins Abakah, Nader Trabelsi, Aviral Kumar Tiwari and Samia Nasreen

This study aims to provide empirical evidence on the return and volatility spillover structures between Bitcoin, Fintech stocks and Asian-Pacific equity markets over time and…

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Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to provide empirical evidence on the return and volatility spillover structures between Bitcoin, Fintech stocks and Asian-Pacific equity markets over time and during different market conditions, and their implications for portfolio management.

Design/methodology/approach

We use Time-varying parameter vector autoregressive and quantile frequency connectedness approach models for the connectedness framework, in conjunction with Diebold and Yilmaz’s connectivity approach. Additionally, we use the minimum connectedness portfolio model to highlight implications for portfolio management.

Findings

Regarding the uncertainty of the whole system, we show a small contribution from Bitcoin and Fintech, with a higher contribution from the four Asian Tigers (Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong and Thailand). The quantile and frequency analyses also demonstrate that the link among assets is symmetric, with short-term spillovers having the largest influence. Finally, Bitcoins and Fintech stocks are excellent diversification and hedging instruments for Asian equity investors.

Practical implications

There is an instantaneous, symmetric and dynamic return and volatility spillover between Asian stock markets, Fintech and Bitcoin. This conclusion should be considered by investors and portfolio managers when creating risk diversification strategies, as well as by policymakers when implementing their financial stability policies.

Originality/value

The study’s major contribution is to analyze the volatility spillover between Bitcoin, Fintech and Asian stock markets, which is dynamic, symmetric and immediate.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 25 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

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Article
Publication date: 4 June 2019

Nader Trabelsi

This paper aims to investigate the connectedness of Islamic Stock Markets in five regional financial systems, namely, the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe (EU), GCC (Gulf…

1122

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the connectedness of Islamic Stock Markets in five regional financial systems, namely, the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe (EU), GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) and APAC (Asia-Pacific Countries), and across different asset classes (i.e. bonds, gold and crude oil).

Design/methodology/approach

This methodology is inspired by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) and Barunlik and Krehlik (2017) for performing dynamic variance decomposition network and for studying time–frequency dynamics of connectedness at different frequencies.

Findings

Results show that the nature of connectedness over the past decade is time–frequency dynamics. The decomposition of the total volatility spillovers is mostly dominated by the long-run component. Furthermore, dominant regions are the largest contributors of spillover index, with the lowest contribution in the system coming from the GCC market. Results also reveal a slightly higher volatility spillover index of Islamic than conventional equity indexes. Finally, the system that encompasses commodities and Islamic finance instruments, generates the much lower volatility spillover.

Originality/value

The findings have significant implications for portfolio managers who are interested in being able to predict asset returns, as well as for policymakers who are concerned with market stability.

Details

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, vol. 12 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8394

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Article
Publication date: 10 May 2023

Nader Trabelsi

This study aims to uncover the main predictors of financial distress in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries using a wide range of global factors and asset classes.

220

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to uncover the main predictors of financial distress in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries using a wide range of global factors and asset classes.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses novel approaches that take into account extreme events as well as the nonlinear behavior of time series over various time intervals (i.e. short, medium and long term) and during boom and bust episodes. This study primarily uses the conditional value at risk (CoVaR), the quantile multivariate causality test and the partial wavelet coherence method. The data collection period ranges from March 2014 to September 2022.

Findings

US T-bills and gold are the primary factors that can increase financial stability in the GCC region, according to VaRs and CoVaRs. More proof of the predictive value of the oil, gold and wheat markets, as well as geopolitical tensions, uncertainty over US policy and volatility in the oil and US equities markets, is provided by the multivariate causality test. When low extreme quantiles or cross extreme quantiles are taken into account, these results are substantial and sturdy. Lastly, after adjusting for the effect of crude oil prices, this study’s wavelet coherence results indicate diminished long-run connections between the GCC stock market and the chosen global determinants.

Research limitations/implications

Despite the implications of the author’s research for decision makers, there are some limitations mainly related to the selection of Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) GCC ex-Saudi Arabia. Considering the economic importance of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) in the region, the author believes that it would be better to include this country in the data to obtain more robust results. In addition, there is evidence in the literature of the existence of heterogeneous responses to global shocks; some markets are more vulnerable than others. This is another limitation of this study, as this study considers the GCC as a bloc rather than each country individually. These limitations could open up further research opportunities.

Originality/value

These findings are important for investors seeking to manage their portfolios under extreme market conditions. They are also important for government policies aimed at mitigating the impact of external shocks.

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. 15 no. 4/5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

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