Search results

Interconnections among banks are an essential feature of the banking system as it helps in an effective payment system and liquidity management. However, it can be a nightmare during a crisis when these interconnections can act as contagion channels. Therefore, it becomes essentially important to identify good links (non-contagious channels) and bad links (contagious channels).

The article estimated systemic risk using quantile regression through the ΔCoVaR approach. The interconnected phenomenon among banks has been analyzed through Granger causality, and the systemic network properties are evaluated. The authors have developed a fixed effect panel regression model to predict interconnectedness. Profitability-adjusted systemic index is framed to identify good (non-contagious) or bad (contagious) channels. The authors further developed a logit model to find the probability of a link being non-contagious. The study sample includes 36 listed Indian banks for the period 2012 to 2018.

The study indicated interconnections increased drastically during the Indian non-performing asset crisis. The study highlighted that contagion channels are higher than non-contagious channels for the studied periods. Interbank bad distance dominates good distance, highlighting the systemic importance of banking network. It is also found that network characteristics can act as an indicator of a crisis.

The study is the first to differentiate the systemic contagious and non-contagious channels in the interbank network. The uniqueness also lies in developing the normalized systemic index, where systemic risk is adjusted to profitability.

This paper has used account-level data of corporate and retail borrowers, assessed their credit risk through the risk-neutral principle and examined its implication on loan pricing.

It derives the capital charge and credit risk-premium for expected and unexpected losses through a risk-neutral approach. It estimates the risk-adjusted return on capital as the pricing principle for loans. Using GMM regression, the article has assessed the determinants of risk-based pricing.

It has been found that risk-premium is not reflected in the current loan pricing policy as per Basel II norms. However, the GMM estimation on RAROC can price risk premium and probability of default, LGD, risk weight, bank beta and capital adequacy, which are the prime determinants of loan pricing. The average RAROC for retail loans is more than that of corporate loans despite the same level of risk capital requirement for both categories of loans. The robustness tests indicate that the RAROC method of loan pricing and its determinants are consistent against the time and type of borrowers.

The RAROC method of pricing effectively assesses the inherent risk associated with loans. Though the empirical findings are confined to the sample bank, the model can be used for any bank implementing the Basel principle of risk and capital assessments.

The article has developed and validated the model for estimating RAROC, as per Basel II guidelines, for loan pricing that any bank can use.

It has developed the risk-based loan pricing model for retail and corporate borrowers. It has significant practical utility for banks to manage their risk, reduce their losses and productively utilise the public deposits for societal developments.

The article empirically validated the risk-neutral pricing principle using a unique 1,520 retail and corporate borrowers dataset.

This study aims to analyse the systemic risk emitted by all publicly listed commercial banks in a key emerging economy, India.

The study makes use of the Tobias and Brunnermeier (2016) estimator to quantify the systemic risk (ΔCoVaR) that banks contribute to the system. The methodology addresses a classification problem based on the probability that a particular bank will emit high systemic risk or moderate systemic risk. The study applies machine learning models such as logistic regression, random forest (RF), neural networks and gradient boosting machine (GBM) and addresses the issue of imbalanced data sets to investigate bank’s balance sheet features and bank’s stock features which may potentially determine the factors of systemic risk emission.

The study reports that across various performance matrices, the authors find that two specifications are preferred: RF and GBM. The study identifies lag of the estimator of systemic risk, stock beta, stock volatility and return on equity as important features to explain emission of systemic risk.

The findings will help banks and regulators with the key features that can be used to formulate the policy decisions.

This study contributes to the existing literature by suggesting classification algorithms that can be used to model the probability of systemic risk emission in a classification problem setting. Further, the study identifies the features responsible for the likelihood of systemic risk.