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1 – 10 of 59Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee and Augustine Chuck Arize
The purpose is to assess the asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the trade balance using data from African nations.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose is to assess the asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the trade balance using data from African nations.
Design/methodology/approach
The methodology is based on the most recent development in asymmetry cointegration and error-correction modeling.
Findings
While the authors find short-run asymmetric effects in many of the countries in their sample, asymmetry cointegration yields support for the new definition of the J-curve in Algeria, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Morocco, Tanzania and Zambia.
Originality/value
This is the first study that applies nonlinear ARDL approach of Shin et al. (2014) using data from each of the 13 countries in Africa.
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Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee and Tatchawan Kanitpong
The purpose of this paper is to assess asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on Thailand’s trade balances.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to assess asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on Thailand’s trade balances.
Design/methodology/approach
The design methodology is based on the nonlinear ARDL approach of Shin et al. (2014).
Findings
The authors find strong support for the asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the Thailand trade balance with most partners, including the three largest partners, China, Japan and the USA.
Research limitations/implications
The long-run asymmetric effects revealed that while baht depreciation will hurt Thailand’s trade balance with China, it will improve its trade balance with the USA and has no effects with Japan.
Practical implications
The trade balance of different partners reacts differently to currency depreciation.
Social implications
A currency depreciation that improves the trade balance by promoting exports also helps to reduce the rate of unemployment.
Originality/value
No study has assessed the asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the Thailand’s trade balance with its major partners.
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Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee and Huseyin Karamelikli
The purpose of this paper is to show that in some industries the linear model may not reveal any significance link between exchange rate volatility and trade flows but once…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to show that in some industries the linear model may not reveal any significance link between exchange rate volatility and trade flows but once nonlinear adjustment of exchange rate volatility is introduced, the nonlinear model reveals significant link.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper uses the linear ARDL approach of Pesaran et al. (2001) and the nonlinear ARDL approach of Shin et al. (2014) to assess asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows between Germany and Turkey.
Findings
This paper consider the experiences of 75 2-digit industries that trade between Turkey and Germany. When the study assumed the effects of volatility to be symmetric, the study found short-run effects in 31 (30) Turkish (German) exporting industries that lasted into the long run in only 10 (13) Turkish (German) exporting industries. However, when the study assumed asymmetric effects and relied upon a nonlinear model, the study found short-run asymmetric effects of volatility on exports of 55 (56) Turkish (German) industries. Short-run asymmetric effects lasted into long-run asymmetric effects in 10 (25) Turkish (German) exporting industries. All in all, we found that almost 25% of trade is hurt by exchange rate volatility.
Originality/value
This is the first paper that assesses the possibility of asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on German–Turkish commodity trade.
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Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, Hesam Ghodsi and Muris Hadzic
The purpose of this paper is to assess and compare the symmetric and asymmetric effects of consumer sentiment on house prices in each state of the USA. This is the first study…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to assess and compare the symmetric and asymmetric effects of consumer sentiment on house prices in each state of the USA. This is the first study that uses state-level data.
Design/methodology/approach
Both linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approaches are used to assess the asymmetric effects of consumer sentiment on house prices in each state of the USA.
Findings
When the authors estimated a linear symmetric model, this paper found short-run effects of consumer sentiment on house prices in 34 states that lasted into the long-run in only 13 states. The comparable numbers by estimating a nonlinear asymmetric model were 47 and 22, respectively. The increase in the number of states where consumer sentiment affects house prices was attributed to the nonlinear adjustments of consumer sentiment.
Originality/value
The authors deviate from previous research and assess the impact of consumer sentiment on house prices by using data from each state of the USA. The authors also deviate from previous research by demonstrating that the effects could be asymmetric. No study has done this at the state-level.
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Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee and Scott W. Hegerty
Since the introduction of the concepts of the J‐ and S‐curves, many researchers have tried to verify their validity empirically. This paper aims to review the related papers and…
Abstract
Purpose
Since the introduction of the concepts of the J‐ and S‐curves, many researchers have tried to verify their validity empirically. This paper aims to review the related papers and to offer direction for future research.
Design/methodology/approach
This is a review paper. As such, no method is employed here. Rather, the methodologies used by others to test the J‐ and S‐curves are explained and reviewed.
Findings
No new findings are offered since this is a review paper.
Practical implications
The J‐ and S‐curves show whether currency depreciation worsens the trade balance first before improving it. Since the majority of studies are country‐specific, policymakers could benefit by learning whether currency depreciation will be effective in improving the trade balance.
Originality/value
This is a literature review paper and its originality is in terms of collecting the literature together and presenting it in one single paper.
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Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee and Abera Gelan
Studies that have addressed the stability of the demand for money in African countries are rare. A few papers have addressed the issue in a small number of individual countries…
Abstract
Purpose
Studies that have addressed the stability of the demand for money in African countries are rare. A few papers have addressed the issue in a small number of individual countries. For cross‐country comparison, this paper aims to investigate the stability of the M2 demand for money in 21 African countries using quarterly data over the period 1971Q1‐2004Q3.
Design/methodology/approach
A standard money demand function is designed. It is estimated using a bounds testing approach to co‐integration and error‐correction modeling.
Findings
Application of the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests to the residuals of error‐correction models reveals that in almost all 21 countries, M2 demand for money is stable. This could be due to incorporating the short‐run adjustment process in testing for the stability of the long‐run elasticity estimates.
Research limitations/implications
Due to data limitations, the study could not be extended to all countries in Africa.
Originality/value
This is the most comprehensive study in the literature for Africa.
Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee, Claire Economidou and Gour Gobinda Goswami
To avoid aggregation bias by using trade data at bilateral level so that we can determine how sensitive are Britain's inpayments and outpayments to the value of the British pound.
Abstract
Purpose
To avoid aggregation bias by using trade data at bilateral level so that we can determine how sensitive are Britain's inpayments and outpayments to the value of the British pound.
Design/methodology/approach
The method is based on the bounds testing approach to cointegration and error‐correction modeling.
Findings
The main finding is that while UK inpayments are not sensitive to the exchange rate, her outpayments are.
Research limitations/implications
Future research must concentrate on disaggregating data further, perhaps at commodity level.
Practical implications
The results could be used to identify Britain's trading partners against which Britain can devalue the pound and improve her trade balance.
Originality/value
No study has attempted to test the impact of real depreciation of the pound on Britain's payments and receipts with her major trading partners.
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Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee and Hanafiah Harvey
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the sensitivity of Indonesia's inpayments and outpayments to currency depreciation on a bilateral basis.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the sensitivity of Indonesia's inpayments and outpayments to currency depreciation on a bilateral basis.
Design/methodology/approach
The methodology used is based on the bounds testing approach.
Findings
It is found that while real depreciation of Rupiah has short‐run effects in a majority of the cases, these effects last into the long‐term in almost 50 percent of the cases. Surprisingly, almost all of the affected partners in the long run are found to be the Asian countries.
Originality/value
The paper is very original in that no one has looked at this issue before.
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Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee and Hadise Fariditavana
Previous research that investigated the effects of currency depreciation on the trade balance assumed that the adjustment of all variables in a given model is in linear fashion…
Abstract
Purpose
Previous research that investigated the effects of currency depreciation on the trade balance assumed that the adjustment of all variables in a given model is in linear fashion. The authors wonder if introduction of nonlinearity in the adjustment of some variables such as the exchange rate can shed additional light on evidence of the J-curve. The new approach also allows to test whether exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the trade balance. Estimates of a trade balance model for Canada, China, Japan, and the USA reveal that the effects are indeed asymmetric. The paper aims to discuss these issues.
Design/methodology/approach
The methodology is based on linear and nonlinear ARDL approach.
Findings
When nonlinearity is introduced into testing approach for the J-curve, more evidence is found in support of the J-curve.
Research limitations/implications
The models are estimated using aggregate trade flows of each country with the rest of the world, hence they suffer from aggregation bias. Using trade flows at bilateral level and at commodity level are highly recommended for future research.
Originality/value
This is the first paper that applies nonlinear ARDL approach to test the short-run and long-run effects of currency depreciation on the trade balance.
Details