Jiancheng Shen, Mohammad Najand, Feng Dong and Wu He
Emotion plays a significant role in both institutional and individual investors’ decision-making process. Emotions affect the perception of risk and the assessment of monetary…
Abstract
Purpose
Emotion plays a significant role in both institutional and individual investors’ decision-making process. Emotions affect the perception of risk and the assessment of monetary value. However, there is a lack of empirical evidence available that addresses how investors’ emotions affect commodity market returns. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether media-based emotions can be used to predict future commodity returns.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors examine the short-term predictive power of media-based emotion indices on the following five days’ commodity returns. The research adopts a proprietary data set of commodity-specific market emotions, which is computed based on a comprehensive textual analysis of sources from newswires, internet news sources and social media. Time series econometrics models (threshold generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and vector autoregressive) are employed to analyze 14 years (January 1998-December 2011) of daily observations of the CRB commodity market index, crude oil and gold returns, and the market-level sentiments and emotions (optimism, fear and joy).
Findings
The empirical results suggest that the commodity-specific emotions (optimism, fear and joy) have significant influence on individual commodity returns, but not on commodity market index returns. Additionally, the research findings support the short-term predictability of the commodity-specific emotions on the following five days’ individual commodity returns. Compared to the previous studies of news sentiment on commodity returns (Borovkova, 2011; Borovkova and Mahakena, 2015; Smales, 2014), this research provides further evidence of the effects of news and social media-based emotions (optimism, fear and joy) in the commodity market. Additionally, this work proposes that market emotion incorporates both a sentimental effect and appraisal effect on commodity returns. Empirical results are shown to support both the sentimental effect and appraisal effect when market sentiment is controlled in crude oil and gold spot markets.
Originality/value
This paper adopts the valence-arousal approach and cognitive appraisal approach to explain financial anomalies caused by investors’ emotions. Additionally, this is the first paper to explore the predictive power of investors’ emotions (optimism, fear and joy) on commodity returns.
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Keywords
Social media allow for observing different aspects of human behaviour, in particular, those that can be evaluated from explicit user expressions. Based on a data set of posts with…
Abstract
Purpose
Social media allow for observing different aspects of human behaviour, in particular, those that can be evaluated from explicit user expressions. Based on a data set of posts with user opinions collected from social media, this paper aims to show an insight into how the readers of different news portals react to online content. The focus is on users’ emotions about the content, so the findings of the analysis provide a further understanding of how marketers should structure and deliver communication content such that it promotes positive engagement behaviour.
Design/methodology/approach
More than 5.5 million user comments to posted messages from 15 worldwide popular news portals were collected and analysed, where each post was evaluated based on a set of variables that represent either structural (e.g. embedded in intra- or inter-message structure) or behavioural (e.g. exhibiting a certain behavioural pattern that appeared in response to a posted message) component of expressions. The conclusions are based on a set of regression models and exploratory factor analysis.
Findings
The findings show and theorise the influence of social media content on emotional user engagement. This provides a more comprehensive understanding of the engagement attributed to social media content and, consequently, could be a better predictor of future behaviour.
Originality/value
This paper provides original data analysis of user comments and emotional reactions that appeared on social media news websites in 2018.
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Tooba Akram, Suresh A/I Ramakrishnan and Muhammad Naveed
This paper aims to provide a comprehensive conceptual framework and strong arguments with an intent to examine the stock market variables (predictors) indicating the money…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to provide a comprehensive conceptual framework and strong arguments with an intent to examine the stock market variables (predictors) indicating the money laundering (ML) and terrorism financing (FT) proceeds.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper provides a comprehensive review of ML/FT through the stock market across developed, developing and emerging jurisdictions, sheds light on the existing literature and critically evaluates the gap in the relevant studies. Moving forward, this paper develops the conceptual framework and formulates hypotheses to explore the empirical relationship.
Findings
This paper advocates and finds a basis to carry out much-needed empirical research between the ML/FT and stock market keeping in view the growing criminal cases in the developing countries. This paper suggests mining proxies from the publically available stock market data and the results of existing seminal research as variables of the study. These data and results carry information about the ML determinants. After developing hypothetical research providing concepts, this paper also finds that using a suitable methodology, preferable Bayesian logistic and linear regression models, it is possible to find the typologies and factors that can indicate and endorse the use of the stock market for ML/FT. Broadly, it is found that the significance of this study will be two-pronged: empirical development and policy implications.
Research limitations/implications
This paper mainly focuses on the developing region, a newly emerging market and, peculiarly, a grey-listed region by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF).
Practical implications
In light of the existing literature and to the best of the researchers’ knowledge, this study will bring into focus the new age of the action research on the ML regime in the securities markets of the developing countries, hence, the emerging markets. Moreover, this research shall have a sheer significance for the policy measures on FATF recommendations on ML and FT, especially for the countries listed as “grey”.
Social implications
The research based on comprehensive review will help in controlling the social behaviours aiding the proceeds of ML.
Originality/value
This research is extremely novel to the best of the researcher's knowledge.
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Keywords
Tooba Akram, Suresh A.L. RamaKrishnan and Muhammad Naveed
This study aims to diagnose the global key contributors in the stock market manipulation studies during the past four decades.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to diagnose the global key contributors in the stock market manipulation studies during the past four decades.
Design/methodology/approach
The database search is based on the terms used in the existing body of knowledge. Using the bibliometric tools and techniques on the Scopus database, the study assessed and analysed the productivity of research studies, as well as the influence of the authors, publications, journals, affiliated institutions and countries.
Findings
This paper finds the USA as the leading country investigating this area, almost capturing 40% of the research studies in finance, moreover, a huge number of co-authors. Financial crises in the late 1990s and 2008 is observed as one of the main reasons for this intriguing research. The Journal of Finance is spotted as the most persuasive journal with the highest cite score and an unprecedented number of citations. The analysis of keywords engendered that most of the stock market manipulation studies are event-based studies. Seminally unique scientometric analysis revealed that the significance of stock market manipulation was mainly captured by event-based studies, insider trading and pump and dump schemes studies. However, much remained untapped to articulate the bridging scope of technology and media with stock market behaviour and manipulations.
Research limitations/implications
The research only includes the Scopus database, however, incorporates 81% relevant study.
Practical implications
This study reckons that technology-based manipulations are emerging themes in this research field which invites the applied research to have productive outcomes.
Originality/value
The intriguing study incorporates a maximum number of the relevant literature and used a comprehensive technique for the selection of dataset in Scopus.