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The purpose of this paper is to highlight some testing procedures, both in time/frequency framework, useful to test for significant cycles in insurance data. The US underwriting cycle is measured using the growth rates of real premiums.

In addition to the traditional AR(2) model, two new approaches are suggested: testing for a significant peak in the periodogram using Fisher g test and a nonparametric version of it, and testing for unit root cycles in insurance data.

All approaches find empirical evidence for a cyclical behaviour of the growth rates of property‐liability real premiums. Results on the length of dominant cycle still diverge, according to the approach (time/frequency domain).

Compared to the existing literature, the present study innovates in that it highlights additional testing procedures, helpful to detect significant cycles in insurance time series. The underwriting cycle is analysed through the growth rates of real premiums.

This paper aims to revisit the assumption of the cyclicality of the property-liability insurance market and identify a scenario in which the so-called underwriting cycles are unpredictable, according to a dynamic cash flow model which generates non-cyclical output dynamics.

This paper is on the intersection of real business cycle models and financial cycles. The authors construct a dynamic model of an insurer’s cash flows with stochastic loss shocks and capacity constraints, in which loss shocks have a dual impact on both underwriting profits and access to external capital. They simulate the insurer’s optimal output responses to loss shocks, including output movements in underwriting coverage and external capital, to explore the source of unpredictable underwriting cycles through linear quadratic approximation in the model economy.

The authors find that the effect of loss shocks on the insurer’s cash flows could spread out and amplify over time because of the dynamic interaction between its underwriting capability and ability to raise external capital. This dynamic interaction can generate a non-cyclical pattern of changes in underwriting coverage and access to external capital in the benchmark economy. Applied to different experimental economies, the simulation results reveal that the determinants of the level of output fluctuations include the size of loss shocks, the sensitivity of capital market to loss shocks and the tightness of capital market.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, there has been no attempt to study insurance output cyclicality with a dynamic cash flow model based upon the real business cycle literature, in which the dynamic interaction between underwriting and access to external capital because of loss shocks has an amplifying effect on output markets. This paper contributes to the current body of research by being able to simulate and show the insurance output dynamics resulting from the amplifying effect under capacity constraints.

This study assesses the potential impact of the European Income Stabilization Tool (IST – a whole farm income risk management [RM] tool) within a farm cooperative specializing in vineyards and operating in a small area of production. The authors assess the conditions under which IST could improve the well-being of the associated farmers and, at the same time, improve financial sustainability. Financial aspects are of particular relevance since the characteristics of the cooperative cause the management of the tool to become potentially risky.

The analysis relies on a balanced panel dataset to report the production and economic characteristics of individual associated farms. This is the basis for simulating the implementation of the IST as described in the current European regulation. The expected utility approach is then used to assess the potential impact on farmers' well-being under different levels of risk aversion and premiums. The analysis of the IST annual cash flow allows for an accurate assessment of its financial sustainability.

The results suggest that the IST can improve farmers' well-being under plausible levels of risk aversion and premiums, making most farmers willing to support its implementation. Furthermore, the tool could be financially sustainable even if implemented in a specialized and geographically concentrated group of farms. In addition, the results suggest that the use of strategies such as the IST could help cope with negative annual balances by treating the financial sustainability of the fund.

The analysis adds to previous research on the IST by accounting for farmers' risk aversion. Furthermore, it is the first analysis that simulates the implementation of this tool in a sector-specific and concentrated group of farms. The results provide useful evidence for those subjects planning to implement the IST in small and specialized farming systems.

The purpose of this article is to compare the methods of interpretation and gap filling in the United Nations Sales Convention (CISG) and in the Draft Common European Sales Law (CESL). In particular, it aims to examine whether the established interpretation and gap filling method of the CISG can and should be used for the CESL.

The article looks at the method by which international case law and doctrine interpret the CISG and fill its gaps. The article compares this method with the method that is provided for in the CESL instrument but has to be implemented.

It is suggested that despite its nature as European community law, CESL should be interpreted in a broad international way since it does not only cover internal EU sales, but also transactions involving parties from outside the EU. For this reason its interpretation and gap filling should follow the method of the CISG so as to interpret similar provisions in a similar way in order to harmonize law within and outside the EU.

Both the CISG and CESL intend to unify legal traditions or different legal systems; the CISG tries to harmonize globally what CESL tries to harmonize regionally. It is important that these two instruments complement one another by the avoidance of divergent interpretations of similar provisions. It would helpful for further research to assess whether and how two decades of experience with the CISG can be used in the interpretation and application of CESL.

CESL's interpretation provision, if it is enacted, is unlikely to change from the current version. The way CESL is interpreted and how its gaps filled will determine its practical significance as a viable opt‐in national law. It is therefore necessary to develop in advance the right interpretive methodology if CESL is to become a meaningful alternative instrument.

The article suggests that the CESL should not be interpreted in the traditional way European community law is interpreted, but, instead, be interpreted under a broad international perspective. It also advances the idea of interconventional interpretation by which the CISG would guide the interpretation of similar provisions found in CESL.