Michael Jacobs Jr, Ahmet K. Karagozoglu and Dina Naples Layish
This research aims to model the relationship between the credit risk signals in the credit default swap (CDS) market and agency credit ratings, and determines the factors that…
Abstract
Purpose
This research aims to model the relationship between the credit risk signals in the credit default swap (CDS) market and agency credit ratings, and determines the factors that help explain the variation in such signals.
Design/methodology/approach
A comprehensive analysis of the differences in the relative credit risk assessments of CDS-based risk signals and agency ratings is provided. It is shown that the divergence between credit risk signals in the CDS market and agency ratings is explained by factors which the rating agencies may consider differently than credit market participants.
Findings
The results suggest that agency credit ratings of relative riskiness of a reference entity do not always correspond with assessments by CDS spreads, as the price of risk is a function of additional macro and micro factors that can be explained using statistical analysis.
Originality/value
This research is unique in modeling the relationship between the credit risk assessments of the CDS market and the agency ratings, which to the best of the authors' knowledge has not been analyzed before in terms of their agreement and the level of discrepancy between them. This model can be used by investors in debt instruments that are not explicitly CDSs or which have illiquid CDS contracts, to replicate market-based, point-in-time credit risk signals. Based on both market-based and firm-specific factors in this model, the results can be used to augment through-the-cycle credit risk assessments, analyze issues surrounding the pricing of CDSs and examine the policies of credit rating agencies.
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Short‐termism will not go away simply by thinking longer term.
The purpose of this paper is to build an easy to implement, pragmatic and parsimonious yet accurate model to determine an exposure at default (EAD) distribution for CCL…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to build an easy to implement, pragmatic and parsimonious yet accurate model to determine an exposure at default (EAD) distribution for CCL (contingent credit lines) portfolios.
Design/methodology/approach
Using an algorithm similar to the basic CreditRisk+ and Fourier Transforms, the authors arrive at a portfolio level probability distribution of usage.
Findings
The authors perform a simulation experiment which illustrates the convolution of two portfolio segments to derive an EAD distribution, chosen randomly from Moody's Default Risk Service (DRS) database of CCLs rated as of 12/31/2008, to derive an EAD distribution. The standard deviation of the usage distribution is found to decrease as we increase the number of puts used, but the mean value remains relatively stable, as the extreme points converge towards the mean to produce a shrinkage in the spread of the distribution. The authors also observe, for the sample portfolio, that an increase in the additional usage rate level also increases the volatility of the associated exposure distribution.
Practical implications
This model, in conjunction with internal bank financial institution research, can be used for banks' EAD estimation as mandated by Basel II for bank CCL portfolios, or implemented as part of a Solvency II process for insurers exposed to credit sensitive unfunded commitments. Apart from regulatory requirements, distributions of stochastic exposure generated can be inputs for different economic capital models and stress testing procedures used to capture an accurate risk profile of the portfolio, as well as providing better insights into the problem of managing liquidity risk for a portfolio of CCLs and similar exposures.
Originality/value
In‐spite of the large volume of CCLs in portfolios of financial institutions all (for commercial banks holding these as well as for insurance companies having analogous exposures), paucity of EAD models, unsuitability of external data and inconsistent internal data with partial draw‐downs have been a major challenge for risk managers as well as regulators in managing CCL portfolios.
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Jeffrey C. Eargle and Michael Mewborne
In this article, the authors – a social studies methods professor and geography research associate – make the case for considering the integration of Holocaust geographies into…
Abstract
Purpose
In this article, the authors – a social studies methods professor and geography research associate – make the case for considering the integration of Holocaust geographies into the middle and secondary curriculum, potential challenges that teachers may have in teaching Holocaust geographies are addressed.
Design/methodology/approach
Using an experience in delivering professional development on Holocaust geographies to teachers to frame the discourse within the article, the authors contend that a study of Holocaust geographies tests geography as a discipline, addresses current problems and supports student inquiry. Therefore, the inclusion of the Holocaust in the geography curriculum is both needed and valuable.
Findings
Examining the Holocaust spatially using geographical skills moves students away from the potential limits of studying the Holocaust temporally using only historical skills. Thus, the distance between past and present, although not ignored, is narrowed through the inquiry into spatial patterns and characteristics, providing the potential to bring greater focus on present-day antisemitism, persecution, genocide and authoritarianism.
Originality/value
Educators are encouraged to take up work that intersects the civic goals of both geography and Holocaust education, yet literature on these intersections is sparse. We call upon Holocaust education and geography education organizations to develop and provide support for teachers around Holocaust geographies.
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Dong Shen and Qiuyue Wang
The purpose of this paper is to examine Chinese consumers’ perception of US-made clothing and purchase intention to US-made clothing; to explore the role of brand in the…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine Chinese consumers’ perception of US-made clothing and purchase intention to US-made clothing; to explore the role of brand in the relationship between country of origin (COO) and consumer perception and purchase intention; and to investigate whether China is a potential market for US-made clothing.
Design/methodology/approach
A survey was conducted among college students in three cities in China. A 2×3 within-subjects design with two countries and three brands was performed.
Findings
For Chinese consumers, country equity of China is significantly higher than the USA. However, Chinese consumers hold significantly higher perceived quality and perceived price of product for US-made clothing for all American brands. Chinese consumers have significantly higher purchase intention for US-made clothing for popular American brands with average price points.
Research limitations/implications
Further research could sample different groups which are better representative of the whole population. Different COOs and industrial sectors will be worth of studying. Future research also needs to quantify the potential price increase.
Practical implications
The conclusions can be applied to business practices by American companies identifying their brand category before developing effective sourcing strategies.
Social implications
This study sheds light on policy making by bringing a new approach to position US-made products in China and address the trade imbalance between the two countries.
Originality/value
This study deeply examines how different brands affect Chinese consumers’ perception of US-made clothing and purchase intention to US-made clothing.
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– This study aims to survey supervisory requirements and expectations for counterparty credit risk (CCR).
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to survey supervisory requirements and expectations for counterparty credit risk (CCR).
Design/methodology/approach
In this paper, a survey of CCR including the following elements has been performed. First, various concepts in CCR measurement and management, including prevalent practices, definitions and conceptual issues have been introduced. Then, various supervisory requirements and expectations with respect to CCR have been summarized. This study has multiple areas of relevance and may be extended in various ways. Risk managers, traders and regulators may find this to be a valuable reference. Directions for future research could include empirical analysis, development of a theoretical framework and a comparative analysis of systems for analyzing and regulating CCR.
Findings
Some of the thoughts regarding the concept of risk will be considered and surveyed, and then how these apply to CCR will be considered. A classical dichotomy exists in the literature, the earliest exposition upon which is credited to Knight (1921), who defines uncertainty is when it is not possible to measure a probability distribution or it is unknown. This is contrasted with the situation where either the probability distribution is known, or knowable through repeated experimentation. Arguably, in economic and finance (and more broadly in the social or natural as opposed to the physical or mathematical sciences), the former is a more realistic scenario that is being contending with (e.g. a fair vs loaded die, or die with unknown number of sides.) The authors are forced to rely upon empirical data to estimate loss distributions, but this is complicated because of changing economic conditions, which invalidate forecasts that our econometric models generate.
Originality/value
This is one of few studies of the CCR regulations that is so far-reaching.
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The author presents a comparative study of the three evolutionary economic schools, namely the Austrians, neo-Schumpeterians, and institutionalists. The comparison is based on an…
Abstract
The author presents a comparative study of the three evolutionary economic schools, namely the Austrians, neo-Schumpeterians, and institutionalists. The comparison is based on an analysis of nine basic features of the evolutionary process and evolutionary approach, including a dynamical view of economic phenomena (seen from a historical perspective), a focus on far-from-equilibrium analysis, a proper and realistic perception of time, and a population perspective (to what extent emergent properties are results of interaction among economic agents). The relevant features of the evolutionary process are the heterogeneity and behavior of economic agents, the search for novelty based on a concept of economic agents’ hereditary information, a selection process (based on the concept of rivalry), spontaneity of development, and the presence of decision-making procedures (how economic agents make decisions, and to what extent their subjective values play a role). The goal of the comparative analysis is to estimate the level of “evolutionary content” of the three schools. My subjective evaluation suggests that only the Austrian school can be called entirely evolutionary. Slightly less evolutionary are the neo-Schumpeterians, and the least evolutionary are the institutionalists.
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Larry Davidson, Connie M. Nickou, Peter Lynch, Silvia Moscariello, Rajita Sinha, Jeanne Steiner, Selby Jacobs and Michael A. Hoge
Serious and persistent mental illness has posed a significant social problem for a majority of cultures across most historical periods. Most recently in the United States, the…
Abstract
Serious and persistent mental illness has posed a significant social problem for a majority of cultures across most historical periods. Most recently in the United States, the aftermath of the deinstitutionalization policies of the 1950–1970s has resulted in many individuals who in the past might have spent the majority of their adult lives living in hospitals roaming city streets homeless, impoverished, and vulnerable to victimization or to being arrested for minor offenses. This paper reviews the changes both in the population of individuals with serious mental illness and in the systems that care for them over the last 25 years, and suggests that a “Tower of Babel” scenario has resulted inadvertently from the shift from hospital to community care. Following the dissolution of the monolithic hospitals (i.e. Towers of Babel), mental health providers have been dispersed among a myriad of community agencies, each with its own vision and standards of community care. Without a shared map to guide their work, community systems have become characterized by disarray, paralysis, and a lack of integration and coordination of care for a population of individuals who typically require more than one service from more than one provider at any given time. To address these issues, we offer a core set of “principles of care” developed by one local service system in an attempt to (re-)constitute a common map for their shared territory. We closed with a discussion of the issues that remain unresolved despite this collaborative process, and with suggestions for future directions to explore.
Peow Ng, Wei Fang, Bo Li, Jiguo Zou and Haiqing Gong
In view of the “staircase or stepped effect” in the present commercial rapid prototyping (RP) systems, a new approach is proposed, and is currently under development to produce…
Abstract
In view of the “staircase or stepped effect” in the present commercial rapid prototyping (RP) systems, a new approach is proposed, and is currently under development to produce true stepless parts. The new RP system is a combination of five‐axis motion control technology and precision milling. The system consists of three linear and two rotary axes, which enable the milling tool to be orientated for tangent cutting. Because of the complexity of the five‐axis configuration, ensuring high accuracy and precision is both important and difficult. This paper presents an open‐loop motion compensation algorithm, which enables the machine tool to move more accurately to a given position and orientation than its physical setup allows. Experimental procedures to measure the geometrical errors in the system setup are also presented in this paper.