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1 – 6 of 6Mesbah Fathy Sharaf, Abdelhalem Mahmoud Shahen and Badr Abdulaziz Binzaid
This study aims to investigate the causal relationship between external debt and inflation in Jordan over the period 1970 to 2020.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to investigate the causal relationship between external debt and inflation in Jordan over the period 1970 to 2020.
Design/methodology/approach
The external debt–inflation nexus is examined within a multivariate framework by including other determinants of inflation, including money supply and the nominal effective exchange rate. This study uses an ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration to test the existence of a long-run relationship between the inflation rate and its drivers. An error correction model is estimated to reveal the short-run dynamics of the series. The direction of causality among the variables is examined using a modified version of the Granger non-causality test due to Toda and Yamamoto (1995). The analyses control for the presence of structural breaks in the underlying time series.
Findings
The empirical results show that external debt and money supply have a statistically significant positive effect on inflation in the long run. The authors also find that a nominal depreciation of the Jordanian Dinar raises inflation rates in the long run. The Toda–Yamamoto Granger non-causality test findings reveal a statistically significant bi-directional positive causality between inflation and external debt, between the nominal effective exchange rate and inflation and between money supply and inflation.
Practical implications
Proper management of the exchange rate policy, money supply and external debt levels is crucial to control inflation rates in Jordan.
Originality/value
To date, the authors are unaware of any empirical study that examines the impact of external debt on inflation in Jordan, and the current study aims to fill this gap in the literature.
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Mesbah Fathy Sharaf and Abdelhalem Mahmoud Shahen
This study aims to examine the symmetric and asymmetric impact of external debt on inflation in Sudan from 1970 to 2020 within a multivariate framework by including money supply…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to examine the symmetric and asymmetric impact of external debt on inflation in Sudan from 1970 to 2020 within a multivariate framework by including money supply and the nominal effective exchange rate as additional inflation determinants.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors utilize an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine the symmetric impact of external debt on inflation, while the asymmetric impact is examined using a Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model. The existence of a long-run relationship between inflation and external debt is tested using the bounds-testing approach to cointegration, and a vector error-correction model is estimated to determine the short parameters of equilibrium dynamics.
Findings
The linear ARDL model results show that external debt has no statistically significant impact on inflation in the long run. On the contrary, the results of the NARDL model show that positive and negative external debt shocks statistically affect inflation in the long run. The estimated long-run elasticity coefficients of the linear and nonlinear ARDL models reveal that the domestic money supply has a statistically significant positive impact on inflation. In contrast, the nominal effective exchange rate has a statistically significant negative impact on inflation.
Practical implications
The reliance on symmetric analysis may not be sufficient to uncover the existence of a linkage between external debt and inflation. Proper external debt management is crucial to control inflation rates in Sudan.
Originality/value
To date, no empirical study has assessed the external debt-inflation nexus and its potential asymmetry in Sudan, and the current study aims to fill this gap in the literature.
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Within a multivariate framework, this study examines the asymmetric and threshold impact of external debt on economic growth in Egypt during the period 1980–2019.
Abstract
Purpose
Within a multivariate framework, this study examines the asymmetric and threshold impact of external debt on economic growth in Egypt during the period 1980–2019.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper uses a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and a vector error-correction model to estimate the short- and long-run parameters of equilibrium dynamics. A multiple structural breaks model is estimated to test nonlinearity in the relationship between external debt and economic growth.
Findings
Results of the NARDL model show a robust statistically significant negative long-run impact on economic growth stemming from both positive and negative external-debt-induced shocks. In terms of magnitude, on the one hand, the impact of external-debt-induced negative shocks exceeds that of the positive. In the short and long run, on the other hand, the growth impact of external debt in Egypt is symmetric. There is also support for the nonlinearity hypothesis in which a negative impact on growth of external debt obtains once the threshold level of external debt-to-GDP ratio equals or exceeds 96.7%.
Practical implications
Identifying the threshold level after which external debt becomes harmful to economic growth would help inform policymakers in Egypt about maximum external debt levels that can be sustained without impairing economic growth.
Originality/value
The current study makes a substantial contribution to the extant literature on the debt-growth tradeoffs. It breaks ground by being the first tract that examines, using a NARDL model, asymmetry and nonlinearity of debt-growth tradeoffs in Egypt.
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Mesbah Fathy Sharaf and Abdelhalem Mahmoud Shahen
This paper investigates the asymmetric impact of the real effective exchange rate (REER) on Egypt's real domestic output from 1960 to 2020.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper investigates the asymmetric impact of the real effective exchange rate (REER) on Egypt's real domestic output from 1960 to 2020.
Design/methodology/approach
A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model is utilized to isolate real currency depreciations from appreciations and account for the potential asymmetry in the impact of the REER. The analyses account for the various channels via which the REER could affect domestic output.
Findings
Results show evidence of a long-run asymmetry in the output effect of REER changes in which only real currency depreciations have a contractionary impact on output, while the REER has no impact on output in the short run.
Practical implications
The Egyptian monetary authority cannot rely on domestic currency depreciation as a policy instrument to boost domestic output.
Originality/value
Unlike most of the previous studies, which assume linearity in the impact of the REER on output, we relax this assumption and hypothesize that the REER changes have an asymmetric effect on the Egyptian domestic output in Egypt. We use a long time span from 1960 to 2020 and control for the potential structural breaks in the REER-output nexus and the various channels through which the REER can affect domestic output.
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Mesbah Fathy Sharaf and Ahmed Shoukry Rashad
This study aims to analyze whether precarious employment is associated with youth mental health, self-rated health and happiness in marriage and whether this association differs…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to analyze whether precarious employment is associated with youth mental health, self-rated health and happiness in marriage and whether this association differs by sex.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper uses longitudinal data from the Survey of Young People in Egypt conducted in 2009 and 2014 and estimates a fixed-effects model to control for time-invariant unobserved individual heterogeneity. The analysis is segregated by sex.
Findings
The results indicate that precarious employment is significantly associated with poor mental health and less happiness in marriage for males and is positively associated with poor self-reported health for females. The adverse impact of precarious work is likely to be mediated through poor working conditions such as low salary, maltreatment at work, job insecurity and harassment from colleagues.
Social implications
Governmental policies that tackle job precariousness are expected to improve population health and marital welfare.
Originality/value
Egypt has witnessed a significant increase in the prevalence of precarious employment, particularly among youth, in recent decades, yet the evidence on its effect on the health and well-being of youth workers is sparse. This paper adds to the extant literature by providing new evidence on the social and health repercussions of job precariousness from an understudied region.
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Neda Mahami, Nasim Abedimanesh, Somayyeh Asghari, Kosar Mohammadnejad, Mohammad Reza Eskandari, Zivar Nejadebrahimi, Hassan Ahangar, Keivan Nedaei, Mojtaba Fathi, Ehsan Noori and Behrooz Motlagh
This study aims to evaluate the effects of betanin on AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK), Sirtuin1 (SIRT1) and Sirtuin6 (SIRT6) gene expression as well as the tumour necrosis…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to evaluate the effects of betanin on AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK), Sirtuin1 (SIRT1) and Sirtuin6 (SIRT6) gene expression as well as the tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) and interleukin 6 (IL-6) cytokine release in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) of patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) and healthy controls.
Design/methodology/approach
PBMCs isolated from whole blood of 50 patients with CAD and 48 healthy subjects aged 45 to 60 years were treated with 10 and 20 µM of betanin for 24 h. Real-time polymerase chain reaction was performed to assess gene expression levels of AMPK, SIRT1 and SIRT6. The supernatants of the cultured cells were used to assess the IL-6 and TNF-α protein levels by ELISA.
Findings
Treatment with both doses of betanin significantly increased AMPK, SIRT1 and SIRT6 expression in PBMCs of CAD patients compared to control non-treated cells (p < 0.05). In PBMCs of healthy subjects, only treatment with high dose of betanin showed significant increase in AMPK (p = 0.007), SIRT1 (p = 0.013) and SIRT6 (p = 0.024) expression compared to control non-treated cells. Betanin (20 µM) also significantly decreased TNF-α and IL-6 concentrations in the culture supernatants of the CAD patients compared to control non-treated cells (p < 0.001).
Originality/value
Betanin could enhance AMPK, SIRT1 and SIRT6 gene expressions in PBMCs and represent a useful complementary treatment to reduce the proinflammatory status accompanied with CAD.