Massoud Metghalchi, Nazif Durmaz, Peggy Cloninger and Kamvar Farahbod
This paper aims to investigate popular technical trading rules (TTRs) applied to the FTSE Turkish all-cap and small-cap indexes from September 23, 2003 to August 9, 2019 to…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate popular technical trading rules (TTRs) applied to the FTSE Turkish all-cap and small-cap indexes from September 23, 2003 to August 9, 2019 to determine rules that produce net excess returns over the Buy-and-Hold strategy (B&H).
Design/methodology/approach
Five TTRs, namely, simple moving average, relative strength index, moving average convergence divergence, momentum, and rate of change, are applied, singly (one indicator) and in combination (two indicators) for multiple time periods.
Findings
For the small-cap index, some TTRs – including the famous Golden Cross, when the 50-day moving average rises above 200-day moving average – produced net annual excess returns (NAERs) over the B&H strategy, for the entire period and each sub-period, after accounting for risk and transaction costs. Results were mixed for the large-cap index. The results support Cakici and Topyan (2013).
Research limitations/implications
This study investigates several indicators, but future studies should examine others, especially based on volume and price.
Practical implications
Investors in the FTSE Turkish small-cap index may use some trading rules to earn NAERs over the B&H strategy.
Originality/value
This research is important because it addresses a gap in the research by examining numerous TTRs in the Turkish stock market. Studies of TTRs in Turkey are scarce.
Details
Keywords
Massoud Metghalchi, Jianjun Du and Yixi Ning
This paper tests two moving average technical trading rules for four Asian markets. Our results indicate that moving average rules do indeed have predictive power and can discern…
Abstract
This paper tests two moving average technical trading rules for four Asian markets. Our results indicate that moving average rules do indeed have predictive power and can discern recurring price patterns for profitable trading. Moreover, our results support the hypothesis that technical trading rules can outperform the buy‐and‐hold strategy. Break‐even one‐way trading costs are estimated to be high for all four markets. To confirm the test outcome, robust tests based on bootstrap and the related t‐tests among the markets are also carried out. We conclude from the statistical results that moving average rules are valid and indeed have predictive power. It is implied that the trading rules may be used to design a trading strategy that will beat the buy‐and‐hold strategy in the Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan markets. The contribution of the current study is that this is the first validation test of trading rules using four markets at a similar development stage and culture tradition; and in the tests, we use most current and longer periods than the periods used in previous literature. Our robust tests are unique and considered distribution‐free.