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Article
Publication date: 29 January 2025

Sona Razaghi, Ali Mohammad Ahmadvand and Marzieh Samadi-Foroushani

Ensuring energy security and controlling the share of energy in climate change are the two main challenges of the energy sector in the path of a sustainable future. This study has…

13

Abstract

Purpose

Ensuring energy security and controlling the share of energy in climate change are the two main challenges of the energy sector in the path of a sustainable future. This study has designed the dynamic model of Iran’s electrical energy supply system based on the water-food-energy-climate change nexus in order to identify sustainable policies for the supply of electrical energy resources and adaptation to Iran’s climate change process.

Design/methodology/approach

For this purpose, first, the system dynamics model was designed with the participation of policymakers and the supply and demand data of water-food-energy resources and the trend of climate change and economic growth in Iran. After validation, the model is simulated in the 30-year horizon (2020–2050), and according to the results of the Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis, Iran’s electric energy supply policies are based on four strategies, including (1) Electric energy supply based on electric energy supply management from non-renewable sources, (2) Development of electrical energy supply based on management of energy supply from renewable sources, (3) Electrical energy supply based on electrical energy demand management and (4) Electrical energy supply based on adaptation to climate changes. By identifying and applying the policies of each strategy separately, the model was tested and the results were compared.

Findings

Based on the implementation of the combination of selected policies in the model, the following policies have been proposed: 16% development of nuclear power plants, 18% reduction in the ratio of production of gas power plants to the total production of non-renewable power plants, and an increase in the production of combined cycle power plants through conversion of gas to combined cycle, energy aggregation and development of heat recovery systems in industrial units by 32%, a decrease of 5% Energy transmission and distribution losses, per capita reduction of energy consumption from 0.926 to the global average of 0.182 (MW) per year, management of water demand in the food sector by increasing irrigation efficiency to about 85%, a 27% increase in the area of land under the irrigation network, and reducing losses Food amounting to the global average of 0.9 m tons per year.

Originality/value

The proposed model is an application of system dynamics in the field of policymaking to ensure the security of electrical energy resources, taking into account the water-food-energy-climate changes nexus. The model is a valuable tool for policymakers in planning the sustainable management of resources in the path of adapting to climate change.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 28 February 2022

Mahnaz Hosseinzadeh, Marzieh Samadi Foroushani and Razieh Sadraei

The study aims to identify the dynamic complexities and development points of the entrepreneurial ecosystem (EE) in the agricultural sector of Iran to improve production factors'…

1190

Abstract

Purpose

The study aims to identify the dynamic complexities and development points of the entrepreneurial ecosystem (EE) in the agricultural sector of Iran to improve production factors' productivity, including arable land, water resources and human capital.

Design/methodology/approach

First, the EE of the agricultural sector in Iran was designed following Isenberg's framework. Then, the main variables and interrelationships of the variables in each context of the ecosystem, called subsystems, were formulated using the system dynamics (SD) approach. Next, the model was simulated and validated. Afterward, different policy options were identified, embedded into the model structure and simulated. Finally, the best policy group was selected.

Findings

According to Isenberg's EE model, three groups of policies were identified and evaluated, including “entrepreneurship development financing and investment policy,” “agricultural ecosystem's supportive services development policy” and “production factors productivity development policy.” According to the simulation results, the best combination of the solution strategies was recognized. The presented SD-EE model has a generic nature in the agricultural sector and could be modified to be applied in different regions for policy-making purposes.

Originality/value

The main contribution of the study is twofold. First, Isenberg's EE framework is applied to structure the main subsystems and interrelationships of the subsystems in the agricultural sector that has previously received limited attention. Second, the research is the first to operationalize the basic theory of Isenberg's EE in practice applying a robust systemic modeling methodology like SD.

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Article
Publication date: 24 January 2023

Mahnaz Hosseinzadeh, Marzieh Samadi Foroushani, Hakim Ghayem and Mohammad Reza Mehregan

While the petroleum industry remains to be the main source of energy in the world, it is responsible for a large amount of resource consumption, environmental emission and safety…

340

Abstract

Purpose

While the petroleum industry remains to be the main source of energy in the world, it is responsible for a large amount of resource consumption, environmental emission and safety issues. In this industry, most of the refinery equipment are running out of their designed life cycle, leading to many challenges regarding equipment reliability, products quality, organizations’ profitability, human resources safety and job satisfaction, and environmental pollution, which affects not only the human resources of the refinery but also the people who live in the vicinity. This study aims to model and simulate the maintenance system of an oil refinery to reduce the rotating equipment’s downtime while simultaneously considering the three pillars of sustainability.

Design/methodology/approach

Considering the complexity of the system and its inherent dynamism, System Dynamics (SD) approach is applied to model and simulate the maintenance system of an oil refinery, aiming at reducing equipment’s downtime considering the three pillars of sustainability simultaneously. As a case study, the maintenance system of rotating equipment in the Abadan oil refinery of Iran is investigated.

Findings

Individual policies are investigated and categorized into three main groups: economic, social and environmental. The dynamic nature of the system demonstrates that applying combinations of the policies would be more effective than performing individual ones or even a combination of all policies at the same time. The findings show that to manage the maintenance and reliability issues in complex industries, only operational level maintenance strategies would not be helpful; rather, a holistic strategic solution counting different suppliers or even the government policies supporting the operational level maintenance decisions would be effective.

Originality/value

This study is the first which brings the perspective of sustainable policy-making in the SD modeling of a complex maintenance system like that of the petroleum industry. The developed model considers economic, environmental and social objectives simultaneously. Besides, it reflects the role of different stakeholders in the system. Furthermore, the policy-making attempt is not limited to the operational level corrective and maintenance solutions; instead, a comprehensive, holistic view is applied.

Details

International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management, vol. 40 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0265-671X

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 26 October 2020

Mahnaz Hosseinzadeh, Marzieh Samadi Foroushani, Ou Tang and Mohammad Reza Mehregan

Oil is the natural resource recognized as the most important source of revenue in oil-dependent countries and is most often referred to as being susceptible to corruption owing to…

351

Abstract

Purpose

Oil is the natural resource recognized as the most important source of revenue in oil-dependent countries and is most often referred to as being susceptible to corruption owing to its strategic importance. A major challenge in addressing and encountering the problems in complex social systems, such as corruption, is how to structure the problematic situation and how to capture mental models of the stakeholders involved in the situation, and also how to identify the system’s behavior in response to various policy intervention attempts in the long run. This study aims to shed new lights on modeling and simulating corrupt system of the oil industry, as a complex social system needed to be structured according to social system theories’ principles.

Design/methodology/approach

Parson’s theory is applied as a basic framework to capture the complexities of a corrupt system, dividing the system into political and structural, economic, legal and judicial and cultural and social sub-systems. Then soft system dynamics methodology, which is a combination of the two well-known methodologies, soft system methodology and system dynamics, is applied to model and simulate the complexities involved in the oil industry of Iran, which owns the second-largest oil reservoir in the world and its economy is much dependent on the oil revenue, struggles with corruption, and plans for a large amount of anti-corruption activities.

Findings

After simulating and calibrating the model, three groups of policies, namely, “reducing corruption opportunities,” “reducing corruption demand,” and “increasing anti-corruption capacity” are implemented in the model. As to the simulation results, due to the mutual inter-causality of opportunity and demand for corruption, individual application of each group of policies will not be helpful for long, rather a combination of policies will conduce to substantial improvements in declining corruption in the oil industry.

Originality/value

The developed model addresses the dynamics of the complex socio-economic system of corruption in the system of oil industry via modeling and simulation. The developed four-dimension system dynamics framework could be considered as a guidance for corruption modeling in general and as a basic model for corruption modeling of oil-dependent countries’ systems in particular.

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