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The purpose of this paper is to use a linked-farm approach and a cohort approach to estimate farm entry and exit rates using the US Census of Agriculture. The number of new farms entering agriculture was re-estimated and adjusted upward since not all new and beginning farmers are known to US Department of Agriculture.

In addition to a linked-farm approach (linking farms over time), a cohort approach (farms that started operating in the same year) is used to determine exit rates conditional on the number of years a farm has been operating. Linear forecasting, moving-average forecasting, and using data from a later Census are used to re-estimate the number of new farms in their first year of operating.

Using the linked-farm approach, an average annual entry rate of 7.5 percent and exit rate of 8.5 percent is estimated for 2007 to 2012, which vary based on the farmer’s lifecycle. The cohort approach shows that exit rates are lower than 4 percent for the first 40 years of operating a farm business and then exit rates gradually increase. Revised estimates of approximately 70-80,000 new farms entering each year are calculated, which are considerably higher numbers than the 30-40,000 new farm entrants participating in the Census of Agriculture.

The linked-farm and cohort approaches are used to provide updated estimates for farm entry and exit using new Census data and to make comparisons with previous years. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to provide revised estimates for new farm entrants into US agriculture.

The purpose of this paper is to identify the factors associated with farm financial success for those farms known to produce for local supply chains. The analysis considers alternative measures of farm financial performance and considers the role of the local foods supply chain in the choice to market locally.

The paper uses a two-stage Heckman approach which addresses the possibility of sample selection bias. In the first stage, the choice model to engage in direct marketing is estimated. In the second stage, the authors estimate a model of the financial performance of those in the sample that direct marketed which includes an IMR term calculated from the parameters of the first stage equation. The analysis uses national farm-level data from the Agricultural and Resource Management Survey of the US Department of Agriculture and combines data from 2009 to 2012 to overcome the constraint of small samples.

Indicators of the development of a local foods supply were positively related to the choice to engage in direct marketing. Factors affecting farm financial performance varied significantly between a short-term and a long-term measure. The results emphasize the importance of considering multiple outcome measures, developing local supply chains and provide implications about beginning farms.

If a local foods system is going to thrive, the farms that market the agricultural products in the local food system must attain a certain level of profitability. The value of the analysis is an improved understanding of the financial performance of farms producing for a small, but growing segment of the food supply chain.