Evangelia Avgeri and Maria Psillaki
The research documented in this paper aims to examine multiple factors related to borrowers' default in peer-to-peer (P2P) lending in the USA. This study is motivated by the…
Abstract
Purpose
The research documented in this paper aims to examine multiple factors related to borrowers' default in peer-to-peer (P2P) lending in the USA. This study is motivated by the hypothesis that both P2P loan characteristics and macroeconomic variables have influence on loan performance. The authors define a set of loan characteristics, borrower characteristics and macroeconomic variables that are significant in determining the probability of default and should be taken into consideration when assessing credit risk.
Design/methodology/approach
The research question in this study is to find the significant explanatory variables that are essential in determining the probability of default for LendingClub loans. The empirical study is based on a total number of 1,863,491 loan records issued through LendingClub from 2007 to 2020Q3 and a logistic regression model is developed to predict loan defaults.
Findings
The results, in line with prior research, show that a number of borrower and contractual loan characteristics predict loan defaults. The innovation of this study is the introduction of specific macroeconomic indicators. The study indicates that macroeconomic variables assessed alongside loan data can significantly improve the forecasting performance of default model. The general finding demonstrates that higher percentage change in House Price Index, Consumer Sentiment Index and S&P500 Index is associated with a lower probability of delinquency. The empirical results also exhibit significant positive effect of unemployment rate and GDP growth rate on P2P loan default rates.
Practical implications
The results have important implications for investors for whom it is of great importance to know the determinants of borrowers' creditworthiness and loan performance when estimating the investment in a certain P2P loan. In addition, the forecasting performance of the model could be applied by authorities in order to deal with the credit risk in P2P lending and to prevent the effects of increasing defaults on the economy.
Originality/value
This paper fulfills an identified need to shed light on the association between specific macroeconomic indicators and the default risk from P2P lending within an economy, while the majority of the existing literature investigate loan and borrower information to evaluate credit risk of P2P loans and predict the likelihood of default.
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Christos Floros, Maria Psillaki and Efstathios Karpouzis
The authors examine the short-term stock market reaction surrounding US layoffs during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) period. The authors’ specific interest is on any…
Abstract
Purpose
The authors examine the short-term stock market reaction surrounding US layoffs during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) period. The authors’ specific interest is on any changes that may be observed in US stock markets during the COVID-19 outbreak. This information will help us assess the extent to which policymakers adopted at time revenue and expenditures measures to minimize its negative impact.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors study the linkage between layoffs announced by firms and stock markets in US for the COVID-19 period between March 2020 and October 2020. This period shows important economic figures; a huge number of job cuts announced by blue-chip companies listed in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) due to widespread economic shutdowns. The authors examine whether and to what extent stock markets in US have reacted to layoff announcements during the COVID-19 pandemic using an event-study methodology.
Findings
The study’s results show that US layoffs during the pandemic did not cause any abnormalities on the stock returns, either positive or negative. Based on the mean-adjusted volume, the authors find that layoffs increase the stocks' trading volume, especially on the event date and the day following the event. US stocks become more volatile on the days following the event. Interestingly, on the event date, the authors find that stocks get the highest abnormal volatility; however, the result is statistically insignificant.
Practical implications
The authors suggest that layoffs announcements follow the business cycle quite closely in most industries. The study’s results have implications for investors, regulators and policymakers as they permit to examine the effectiveness of the measures adopted.
Social implications
The study’s results show that policymakers reduced uncertainty implementing intensive measures quickly and should follow similar policy in the future pandemic and/or unexpected events.
Originality/value
This paper contributes to the literature in two directions: First, to the best of the authors’ knowledge this is the first study that provides empirical evidence and assesses the extent to which a major global shock such as the COVID-19 pandemic may have altered the reaction of US stock markets to layoff announcements. Second, this is the first study on this topic that examines volume and volatility abnormalities, while the authors check the robustness of the findings with different methods to calculate abnormal returns.
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Maria Elisabete Neves, Zélia Serrasqueiro, António Dias and Cristina Hermano
This paper aims to analyse the Portuguese companies’ determinants of capital structure. To reach this objective, the authors used data from 37 non-financial Portuguese large…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to analyse the Portuguese companies’ determinants of capital structure. To reach this objective, the authors used data from 37 non-financial Portuguese large enterprises and from 4,233 non-financial small and medium enterprises for the period 2010-2016. Additionally, the authors selected a sub-period from 2010 to 2014 for a deeper understanding of the impact of the sovereign debt crisis and the Economic Adjustment Programme of Troika on the capital structure of those companies.
Design/methodology/approach
Three dependent variables were tested according to debt maturity, and a dynamic panel data model, namely, the generalised method of moments system estimator, was used to test the formulated research hypotheses following Arellano and Bover (1995) and Blundell and Bond (1998) to capture the dynamic nature of the firm’s capital structure decisions.
Findings
In general, the results point out that the capital structure decisions depend on a set of firm-specific factors, and that the effects of the determinants of the debt maturity ratios differ according to the type of firm, i.e. large/small firms, and the economic cycle.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that has been carried out in Portugal by using two samples of large and small companies for analysing the effects of the Economic Adjustment Programme of Troika on the capital structure of companies. The authors seek to understand which type of companies suffered more because of the effects of the Economic Adjustment Programme of Troika during this period, and which are the capital structure determinants that present greater change. Contrary to what might be expected, large companies are the firms that suffer most from the Economic Adjustment Programme. Probably, because these companies are the most immediate, most scrutinised and those that must show abroad that the bank did not fund them in the long term, because of the imposition and limits to grant credit faced by the banks themselves.
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Maria Elisabete Neves, Daniela Almeida and Elisabete S. Vieira
The main objective of this work is to show that the traditional specific characteristics of companies as well as cultural and religious dimensions can influence the leverage of…
Abstract
Purpose
The main objective of this work is to show that the traditional specific characteristics of companies as well as cultural and religious dimensions can influence the leverage of companies in different macro-environmental systems.
Design/methodology/approach
To achieve this aim, the authors have used data from 1.568 firms from 7 European countries between 2010 and 2016, and the models were estimated by using panel data methodology, specifically the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation method by Arellano and Bover (1995) and Blundell and Bond (1998).
Findings
Overall, the empirical results point out that the cultural moderating factors are essential in determining companies' capital structure, regardless of the country's legal origin. The study results also show that traditional variables, intrinsic to management, macroeconomic environment and religion, have a central role in capital structure, namely for the civilian countries.
Originality/value
As far as the authors know, this is the first work that uses, in addition to the traditional specific characteristics of companies, cultural dimensions and religion, as determinants of debt levels, in different legal systems for Europe.
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Elisabete Simões Vieira, Maria Elisabete Neves and António Gomes Dias
The purpose of this paper is to analyse the determinants of Portuguese firms’ performance.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to analyse the determinants of Portuguese firms’ performance.
Design/methodology/approach
To achieve this aim, the authors used data from 37 non-financial firms in the period between 2010 and 2015. Three dependent variables were tested and the estimation of the model using the Generalised Method of Moments shows that internal, external and institutional factors are important to explain the performance of firms listed in Euronext Lisbon.
Findings
The determinants of firm performance vary depending on the variable used to measure the performance. Specifically, the results show that when the authors use a market variable of performance, the firm-specific variables are not so important to explain performance. The macroeconomic factors, including the investor’s sentiment and insider ownership, more effectively explain the firm’s performance. The evidence suggests that the determinants of firm performance change according to the way in which different stakeholders appreciate firm performance.
Originality/value
The main contribution of such approach is to show that internal and external factors influence performance measures in distinct ways, thus helping managers who are expected to make decisions according to the investors’ expectations. It provides initial guidelines for policy makers to understand how to improve the performance of their firms using firm-specific factors. Additionally, this work also demonstrates that the firm’s characteristics, macroeconomics and governance factors could affect the Portuguese firms’ performance, conveying a valuable contribution for investors.
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Maria Elisabete Neves, Ivo Ferreira, Zélia Serrasqueiro and Beatriz Cancela
The objective of this article is to study the factors influencing the leverage and debt maturity of 48 Public Entities and 297 Private Entities, in the health sector in Portugal…
Abstract
Purpose
The objective of this article is to study the factors influencing the leverage and debt maturity of 48 Public Entities and 297 Private Entities, in the health sector in Portugal, in the period between 2015 and 2021, including the pandemic crisis, coronavirus disease 2019.
Design/methodology/approach
To test the proposed hypotheses, the panel data methodology was used, considering the GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) system estimation method.
Findings
Our findings suggest that in times of crisis, both public and private entities resort to long-term loans to finance additional expenses and guarantee the continuity of health services. Also, there is a strong dependence on short-term debt (short leverage [SLEV]), especially in the public sector, suggesting some financial imbalance in current management, with no margin of financial security. In private hospitals, a more considered strategic definition is demonstrated, without current management risks.
Originality/value
As far as the authors are aware, this article is original and covers an important gap in the literature when considering the determinants of debt maturity in public and private hospitals in Portugal, a country where the debate about the essence of the National Health System, it’s in the news every day.
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Maria Elisabete Neves, Beatriz Lopes Cancela and Vítor Manuel de Sousa Gabriel
This study aims to understand which factors determine the corporate performance of Portuguese and Spanish listed companies between 2011 and 2018, also considering the sub-period…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to understand which factors determine the corporate performance of Portuguese and Spanish listed companies between 2011 and 2018, also considering the sub-period marked by the presence of the Troika in Portugal, between 2011 and 2014.
Design/methodology/approach
To achieve this aim, panel data methodology was used, specifically the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation method proposed by Arellano and Bond (1991), Arellano and Bover (1995) and Blundell and Bond (1998) for 110 non-financial companies from the Iberian Peninsula.
Findings
The results point out different signs and significance of the variables in the companies of the two countries. Regarding the sub-period, our results suggest that the intervention of the Troika in Portugal acted in a very different way from the neighboring country.
Originality/value
This research shows the importance of studying countries individually, even with small dimensions, to reinforce the path that is still necessary for more sustainable companies. Furthermore, when companies have strong governance structures, the harmful contagion from one neighboring country to another may not happen.
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Maria Elisabete Neves, Paulo Castanheira, António Dias, Rui Silva and Beatriz Cancela
The main goal of this paper is to study the specific characteristics of the performance of companies in the metallurgical sector, in the northern region of Portugal.
Abstract
Purpose
The main goal of this paper is to study the specific characteristics of the performance of companies in the metallurgical sector, in the northern region of Portugal.
Design/methodology/approach
To achieve this aim, the authors have used data from 325 companies manufacturing metal products, except machinery and equipment (CAE Rev.3 25) and 27 companies that manufacture machinery and equipment (CAE Rev. 3 28). The models were estimated by using the panel data methodology for the period between 2011 and 2019. Specifically, the estimation method of the generalized method of moments system (GMM system) proposed by Arellano and Bover (1995) and Blundell and Bond (1998) was used.
Findings
The results show that the main decisions on the performance of metallurgical companies in Northern Portugal depend on the dimensions of sales in the domestic market (SDM), sales in the community market (SCM), and sales in the foreign market (SFM) and also highlight that the signal and significance of the specific variables depends on how the different stakeholders understand performance.
Originality/value
As far as the authors know, this is the first study to comparatively analyze the two metallurgical databases in Portugal. Despite the huge difference in the size of the sample, this study’s results show that in an era of paradigm shift about what business objectives should be, stakeholders are still not environmentally aware and the social dimension is only considered by shareholders, but not yet by the manager and the general community.
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Pietro Gottardo and Anna Maria Moisello
– This paper aims to examine the determinants of capital structure of unlisted firms and how family governance-related factors impact on them.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to examine the determinants of capital structure of unlisted firms and how family governance-related factors impact on them.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors analyze the relation between a set of capital structure determinants and leverage in a unique dataset of 3,006 family and non-family Italian medium-large firms (26,210 obs.), and a control sample of 2,730 small firms (14,780 obs.), using cross-section and panel procedures during 2001-2010.
Findings
Capital structure choices of medium-large family firms are linked to balance-sheet variables not used in previous studies, i.e. net working capital and capital turnover, and are significantly affected by the need to maintain control and influence, a relevant dimension of family socioemotional wealth. Family firms are more levered than non-family firms, but the difference is economically and statistically significant only for medium-large companies. The presence of the family in active management increases leverage, as the family endowment in the firm is higher.
Research limitations/implications
This research could be developed through an international comparison to check the influence of country-related regulatory issues and of national cultural aspects on family control and influence.
Practical implications
The results can give public authorities important insights in order to facilitate firms funding specially in the current critical economic scenario and provide managers useful suggestions to support financial decisions.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first paper to explore the financial choices of a large dataset of medium-large private firms in a bank-based economy.
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Daniel Kipkirong Tarus and Ezekiel Ayabei
The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of board composition on capital structure of a firm.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of board composition on capital structure of a firm.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper uses data from firms listed in Nairobi Securities Exchange covering the period 2004-2012. Fixed effect regression model was estimated to test the effect of board composition on capital structure and how chief executive officer (CEO) tenure moderates the relationship.
Findings
The paper finds that board composition has important implications on capital structure decisions. Specifically, director independence is positively related to leverage, whereas CEO duality and tenure have negative and significant effect on leverage. In addition, the interaction effect of CEO tenure indicates that when CEOs have long tenure, the power of independent directors to influence capital structure decisions diminishes. Further, the study found that under long CEO tenure, long-tenure boards use less leverage in their capital structure. As expected, dual CEO with long tenure uses less leverage.
Originality/value
The study uses data from an emerging market, contrary to previous studies using data from developed markets, to test the relationship between board composition and leverage. Second, the paper tests the moderating effect of CEO tenure on board composition – leverage relationship based on the idea that entrenched CEO may influence the decision-making ability of directors, particularly capital structure decisions.