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The use of the 4D trajectory operational concept in the future air traffic management (ATM) system will require the aircraft to meet very accurately an arrival time over a designated checkpoint. To do this, time intervals known as time windows (TW) are defined. The purpose of this paper is to develop a methodology to characterise these TWs and to manage the uncertainty associated with the evolution of 4D trajectories.

4D trajectories are modelled using a point mass model and EUROCONTROL’s BADA methodology. The authors stochastically evaluate the variability of the parameters that influence 4D trajectories using Monte Carlo simulation. This enables the authors to delimit TWs for several checkpoints. Finally, the authors set out a causal model, based on a Bayesian network approach, to evaluate the impact of variations in fundamental parameters at the chosen checkpoints.

The initial results show that the proposed TW model limits the deviation in time to less than 27 s at the checkpoints of an en-route segment (300 NM).

The objective of new trajectory-based operations is to efficiently and strategically manage the expected increase in air traffic volumes and to apply tactical interventions as a last resort only. We need new tools to support 4D trajectory management functions such as strategic and collaborative planning. The authors propose a novel approach for to ensure aircraft punctuality.

The main contribution of the paper is the development of a model to deal with uncertainty and to increase predictability in 4D trajectories, which are key elements of the future airspace operational environment.

The current air traffic management (ATM) operational approach is changing; “time” is now integrated as an additional fourth dimension on trajectories. This notion will impose on aircraft the compliance of accurate arrival times over designated checkpoints (CPs), called time windows (TWs). This paper aims to clarify the basic requirements and foundations for the practical implementation of this functional framework.

This paper reviews the operational deployment of 4D trajectories, by defining its relationship with other concepts and systems of the future ATM and communications, navigation and surveillance (CNS) context. This allows to establish the main tools that should be considered to ease the application of the 4D-trajectories approach. This paper appraises how 4D trajectories must be managed and planned (negotiation, synchronization, modification and verification processes). Then, based on the evolution of a simulated 4D trajectory, the necessary corrective measures by evaluating the degradation tolerances and conditions are described and introduced.

The proposed TWs model can control the time tolerance within less than 100 s along the passing CPs of a generic trajectory, which is in line with the expected future ATM time-performance requirements.

The main contribution of this work is the provision of a holistic vision of the systems and concepts that will be necessary to implement the new 4D-trajectory concept efficiently, thus enhancing performance. It also proposes tolerance windows for trajectory degradation, to understand both when an update is necessary and what are the conditions required for pilots and air traffic controllers to provide this update.